Chapter II: Part 2

One reason, but not the only one, as I shall hereafter prove, of the great surge in the London bills, from twenty up to forty, is, that within this interval of life, the majority of the new settlers or recruits, arrive; and consequently augment the burials, from twenty to forty, beyond their natural proportion. After passing the meridian, and in the evening of life, the seasoned inhabitants of cities are said by Dr. Price, to have the advantage of the country, in health and longevity: that is to say, although the number who have survived in the country to sixty, seventy, and eighty, are greater proportionally than in cities, yet the latter class arrived at those years in London, have, comparatively, surer expectations of life. I do not, however, find this assertion verified in fact; the balance, if any, vibrating alternately on each side. The proportion of inhabitants who reach eighty years of age are computed, in London and Vienna, at one of every forty: but in country parishes, at one of every twenty-two; and in some, even one of every eleven. In both city and country, the few survivors at ninety, out of each thousand cœtaneous births, will have lost almost all their fellow-travellers in the journey, long before reaching that goal; and about three or four only out of each thousand, on an average, will be then left alive.

There are a few instances of extraordinary Longevity, to 150 and 165; such are Jenkins and Par, in this island. In Bacon Lord Verulam’s History of Long Livers, male and female; their climate, diet, mode of life, appetites, exercises, studies, passions, dispositions, habits, and complexions, were exceedingly dissimilar. It is however probable, from observation and analogy, that the indigent and laborious class of mankind do not attain to longevity in the same proportion with the middling and more opulent ranks. The wandering Savages of America are notoriously short-lived. Throughout Europe, Asia, Africa, and America, the rich, the poor, the inhabitants of city and country, with very different complexion, climate, soil, diet, and conveniences, all seldom exceed the usual term of life allotted to man: seventy and eighty is mentioned in holy writ, as the brink of our earthly duration. Since the days of Moses; that is, between three and four thousand years, human existence has been circumscribed within the same narrow bounds. In the London registers of mortality, during a period of thirty years, from 1728 to 1758, the total mortality is 750,332; and of all this number, 242 only reached beyond 100 years of age; one of whom arrived at 138. In some races and families of men, longevity seems to be hereditary; and his age, though little more than a dream, exceeds that of all other living creatures, a few only excepted. Amongst the quadruped creation, the elephant surpasses man in longevity: amongst the birds, the Swan, and a few others, have survived upwards of a century. The age of fishes is determined with more ingenuity than certainty: some seem to rival man in years. Among the numerous vegetable tribes, the Oak, Chestnut, and some other great trees, survive centuries.

On contrasting the mortality of Males and Females, it appears, that, notwithstanding the surplus of male births, the perils of childbearing, the many vexatious diseases peculiar to the fair sex, and that physicians and apothecaries have many more patients of the latter; yet the total aggregate number of living females exceeds that of males, in most European kingdoms. Upon a numerical inquest in Edinburgh, and some other great cities, it was found, that females were to males as 4 to 3: in London, as 13 to 10; and in some other cities and towns, as 9 to 8. But in country districts, Graunt and Susmilch agree, that the two sexes approach nearer to an equality. In the province of Jersey, in North America, the males were found the majority. From 1702 to 1752; that is, during a period of fifty years, I find the proportion of male and female mortality in London as follows: Male deaths, 618,076; Female deaths, 626,692. Whence, therefore, does it happen, that female deaths preponderate over the male, when more of the latter are born, and, as calculators assert, the mortality of males, at all ages, is greater than that of females? As a solution of this difficulty and partial exception, I should suggest a greater exportation and transportation of males to the sea and land service, to nautical commerce, and to unhealthy climates.

Even in the Marriage State, the chance of survivorship seems considerably in favour of the wife. In Breslaw, during eight years, five married men died to three married women. Susmilch, on a scrutiny through several kingdoms and principalities of Germany, found, that three married men died to two married women. Dr. Price estimates the chance in favour of the wife being the survivor in marriage, as 3 to 2: and this calculation is confirmed by the experience of the general Clerical Society in Scotland, who have long established funds to support their widows. From their records, it appears that twenty married clergymen have died to twelve wives; or, as 5 to 3. By an accurate survey of several principalities and cities in Germany, and collected by Susmilch, the widows were to the widowers as 3, and even 4 to 1. At marriage, it should be observed, there is generally a disparity of age; the bridegroom is from six to twelve years older than the bride; and therefore should, in the course of nature, die sooner: and perhaps also more widowers, comparatively with the other sex, enter into a second marriage; which tends to reduce their numbers. Besides, husbands are more exposed to the vicissitudes of the weather and seasons, to excessive labour and noxious trades, and to many other causes of diseases. Dr. Price finds, that the sexes respectively commence to be widowers and widows about 52 and 44; that is, men and women entering into matrimony, on a general average, at the age of 33 and 25, will become widowers and widows at 52 and 44: consequently, that each marriage will be dissolved by the death of one of them, in nineteen years; which is the ultimate term and probability of the husband and wife being both alive. For although some marriages may be protracted forty and fifty years, yet others may be dissolved in one year, or in a shorter time.

We have not yet sufficient information to determine the comparative chances of Female Longevity in the married and single state. At Berlin, indeed, calculators have remarked, that there were more married women alive at great ages, than of those who remained single. But such result might naturally be expected from a greater proportion in the decline of life of widows and wives, compared to antiquated virgins. From the ages of fifteen to twenty-five, married women likewise are said to have the advantage of the single, in whom the dictates of nature are frustrated and violated.

Comparing the mortality of the Seasons, Dr. Short found, from a variety of country-registers, that mortality generally begins its reign in December; that at March it is in its zenith; and at May in its declension. In twenty-five country towns and parishes, he found the winter to the summer mortality as 50 to 41. At Manchester, a country town of England, Dr. Percival found the winter to the summer mortality as 11 to 8. At Vevey, in Switzerland, during sixty years, Mr. Muret found the burials, during the four winter months, as 5 to 4 to those of the summer. Another proof of this is recorded in the _Recherches sur la Population, par Messance_: The total sick admitted into the _Hotel Dieu_ hospital in Paris, from 1724 to 1763 (forty years) were, in the four winter months, December, January, February, and March, 314,824; and in the four summer months, June, July, August, September, 238,522; or as 4 to 3. In London too, the undertaker’s, harvest is in winter. There is one obvious reason why, in every metropolis, the winter mortality should exceed that of summer, from the greater concourse of inhabitants of all ranks: but, independent of additional population in winter, the same law seems to prevail in country places. In a subsequent part I shall attempt to throw some collateral illustration upon the subject.

Let us close this humiliating scene with a general abstract of human carnage. If we scan the dolorous mansions of disease, we find, on an average, 1 death, annually, out of every 5 families in cities: but in country towns, and open districts, 1 of 7, 8, 9; and in a few healthy places, 1 of every 10 families. Including the whole assemblage of inhabitants in city, town, and country, from birth to the extreme of existence, they are computed to die in the following annual proportion to the living: In London, 1 of 21; Dublin, 1 of 22; Edinburgh, 1 of 21; Vienna, 1 of 20; Amsterdam, 1 of 22; Berlin, 1 of 26. This is nearly Dr. Price’s calculation; but Halley and Susmilch compute only 1 of 22 to 29 to die annually in cities. In smaller cities and towns, such as Norwich and Northampton, the general average of deaths is 1 of 24 to 26; but in several provinces and healthy country villages, 1 of 32 and 33, up to 45, 50, and even 60, is the annual drain: 1 of 43 to 50 was the average in upwards of a thousand country parishes on the continent; and recorded in Susmilch. Within the above short intervals of time, there will have died in the respective cities and country places enumerated, a number equal to the whole inhabitants. But the annual decrease of the oppressed Negroes, in the West India islands, is estimated at 1 of 7.

The ancient Egyptians allotted 3 generations to a century, which is bordering upon the truth; at this day, 1 of 32 and 33 up to 35, is near the measure of a generation, and to the general decrease of a community throughout Europe, comprehending all the inhabitants in city, village, and country: that is, mankind share amongst them from about 32 and 33 to 35 years each of existence: and within this fugitive interval of time, a number equal to all the present inhabitants of this island, or of the whole earth, will be exterminated. If we extend this estimate to the whole human race, eight hundred million will die in 33 years; about twenty-eight million annually; seventy or eighty thousand daily; about three thousand hourly; and from fifty to sixty every minute. It is perhaps superfluous to add, that, in the same intervals, an equal or superior number will be born.

According to De Moivre and Dr. Price, “the probabilities or expectation of life, decrease as we advance from childhood to old age, in an arithmetical progression; that is, in such a manner that the difference is always the same between the number of persons living at the beginning of any one year, and the number living at the beginning of the following year.” Or, in other words, less enveloped in mathematical obscurity, out of any specified number, an hundred or a thousand, the same proportion will continue to die every year until near 80 years of age and upwards: consequently, the probabilities of life are constantly decreasing; because notwithstanding the progressive annual drain from the capitals, yet the deaths continue throughout equal. But this proportion is certainly erroneous in the first stages of life, and until about 10. View the above proposition in another light.

From any given number there will be an equal drain annually, until what De Moivre terms the _complement_ or _maximum_, or utmost probable extreme of life, which he fixes at 86, all are dead. The probability, therefore, that the whole of any limited number whatsoever, or age, will all be exterminated is the number of years between 86 and the year such a number are all alive. Of 56 persons alive at 30, they should all be dead in 56 years, because 56 added to 30 amounts to 86, the maximum: of 46 persons alive at 40 years of age, they should all be dead in 46 years: and 36 persons alive at 50 years of age, should be dead in 36 years; for 50 and 36 complete the maximum. Again, the expectation of any single life is only half the maximum or complement, or half the space between that age and the ultimate term of existence: but here we must repeat the former exception, and draw the line after 10 years of age. The expectation of two equal joint lives, according to De Moivre, is one third of the complement of life. Example: two lives, aged 40, have an even chance or probable prospect of continuing together in exigence only 15 years; which is the third of the complement, reckoning from 40 to 86: the expectation of the survivor is also 15. Or, suppose a lot of marriages of persons at 40 years of age, they will, on an average, continue together 15½ years; and the survivors the same time after. This expectation, therefore, is the probable duration of each marriage, and the share of each person’s life. But it may be proper to add, that the duration of marriages, and the value of single and joint lives, will, on a promiscuous calculation, be different from the registers of annuitant and insurance offices; because they are scrupulously vigilant to exclude all diseased and unhealthy persons from becoming members.

The following Chart and Tables, present a distinct prospect of the fates clipping the mortal thread, from birth to old age, in city and country. But we are not to suppose that in every instance there will be annually a regular arithmetical diminution, as marked in the different tables: some years will be more fatal than others; and we are to form estimates from an average of several years. The first column points out the age, the second the number living at that age, the third the number who die during the year; and so on to the end of the table. But observe, that the number of infants, at the beginning of the second column, are supposed to be all born together on the first day of that year; and this rule applies throughout all the remaining ages. The two short tables of 15 and 30 years mortality in London, demonstrate the gradations at longer intervals than a single year. From these different tables may be estimated the annual waste, out of any specified number, at all ages, the ultimate prospects of existence, and the odds or probability of a person in health surviving a stated number of years.

A GENERAL CHART, with different Tables,

Exhibiting the Gradations of Mortality in City and Country.

Shewing the Probability of the Duration of Life in LONDON, deduced by
Mr. Simpson, from Observations on the Bills of Mortality in London
for Ten Years, from 1728 to 1737. The total Number of Inhabitants,
probably, about 650,000 in Winter. One Half born died under Three
Years of Age.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1000 | 320
1 | 680 | 133
2 | 547 | 51
3 | 496 | 27
4 | 469 | 17
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 452 | 12
6 | 440 | 10
7 | 430 | 8
8 | 422 | 7
9 | 415 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 410 | 5
11 | 405 | 5
12 | 400 | 5
13 | 395 | 5
14 | 390 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 385 | 5
16 | 380 | 5
17 | 375 | 5
18 | 370 | 5
19 | 365 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 360 | 5
21 | 355 | 5
22 | 350 | 5
23 | 345 | 6
24 | 339 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 333 | 6
26 | 327 | 6
27 | 321 | 6
28 | 315 | 7
29 | 308 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 301 | 7
31 | 294 | 7
32 | 287 | 7
33 | 280 | 7
34 | 273 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 266 | 7
36 | 259 | 7
37 | 252 | 7
38 | 245 | 8
39 | 237 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 229 | 7
41 | 222 | 8
42 | 214 | 8
43 | 206 | 7
44 | 199 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 192 | 7
46 | 185 | 7
47 | 178 | 7
48 | 171 | 6
49 | 165 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 159 | 6
51 | 153 | 6
52 | 147 | 6
53 | 141 | 6
54 | 135 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 129 | 6
56 | 123 | 6
57 | 117 | 5
58 | 112 | 5
59 | 107 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 102 | 5
61 | 97 | 5
62 | 92 | 5
63 | 87 | 5
64 | 82 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 77 | 5
66 | 72 | 5
67 | 67 | 5
68 | 62 | 4
69 | 58 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 54 | 4
71 | 50 | 4
72 | 46 | 4
73 | 42 | 3
74 | 39 | 3
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 36 | 3
76 | 33 | 3
77 | 30 | 3
78 | 27 | 2
79 | 25 |
-------+-----------+----------

Shewing the Probabilities of Life in LONDON for all Ages. Formed from
the Bills for Ten Years, from 1759 to 1768. By Dr. Price.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1518 | 486
1 | 1032 | 200
2 | 832 | 85
3 | 747 | 59
4 | 688 | 42
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 646 | 23
6 | 623 | 20
7 | 603 | 14
8 | 589 | 12
9 | 577 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 567 | 9
11 | 558 | 9
12 | 549 | 8
13 | 541 | 7
14 | 534 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 528 | 6
16 | 522 | 7
17 | 515 | 7
18 | 508 | 7
19 | 501 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 494 | 7
21 | 487 | 8
22 | 479 | 8
23 | 471 | 8
24 | 463 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 455 | 8
26 | 447 | 8
27 | 439 | 8
28 | 431 | 9
29 | 422 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 413 | 9
31 | 404 | 9
32 | 395 | 9
33 | 386 | 9
34 | 377 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 368 | 9
36 | 359 | 9
37 | 350 | 9
38 | 341 | 9
39 | 332 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 322 | 10
41 | 312 | 10
42 | 302 | 10
43 | 292 | 10
44 | 282 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 272 | 10
46 | 262 | 10
47 | 252 | 10
48 | 242 | 9
49 | 233 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 224 | 9
51 | 215 | 9
52 | 206 | 8
53 | 198 | 8
54 | 190 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 183 | 7
56 | 176 | 7
57 | 169 | 7
58 | 162 | 7
59 | 155 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 147 | 8
61 | 139 | 7
62 | 132 | 7
63 | 125 | 7
64 | 118 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 111 | 7
66 | 104 | 7
67 | 97 | 7
68 | 90 | 7
69 | 83 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 76 | 6
71 | 70 | 6
72 | 64 | 6
73 | 58 | 5
74 | 53 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 48 | 5
76 | 43 | 5
77 | 38 | 5
78 | 33 | 4
79 | 29 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
80 | 25 | 3
81 | 22 | 3
82 | 19 | 3
83 | 16 | 3
84 | 13 | 2
-------+-----------+----------
85 | 11 | 2
86 | 9 | 2
87 | 7 | 2
88 | 5 | 1
89 | 4 | 1
90 | 3 | 1

Shewing the Probabilities of Life at VIENNA. Formed from the Bills for
Eight Years, as given by Mr. Susmilch, in his _Gottliche Ordnung_.
Contains upwards of 200,000 Inhabitants. One Half born died under
Three Years of Age.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1495 | 682
1 | 813 | 107
2 | 706 | 61
3 | 645 | 46
4 | 599 | 33
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 566 | 30
6 | 536 | 20
7 | 516 | 11
8 | 505 | 9
9 | 496 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 489 | 6
11 | 483 | 5
12 | 478 | 5
13 | 473 | 6
14 | 467 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 461 | 6
16 | 455 | 7
17 | 448 | 6
18 | 442 | 6
19 | 436 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 430 | 5
21 | 425 | 5
22 | 420 | 5
23 | 415 | 6
24 | 409 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 403 | 6
26 | 397 | 6
27 | 391 | 7
28 | 384 | 7
29 | 377 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 370 | 6
31 | 364 | 6
32 | 358 | 5
33 | 353 | 6
34 | 347 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 340 | 8
36 | 332 | 8
37 | 324 | 8
38 | 316 | 9
39 | 307 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 298 | 8
41 | 290 | 7
42 | 283 | 6
43 | 277 | 6
44 | 271 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 264 | 8
46 | 256 | 9
47 | 247 | 9
48 | 238 | 9
49 | 229 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 220 | 8
51 | 212 | 7
52 | 205 | 7
53 | 198 | 7
54 | 191 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 184 | 8
56 | 176 | 8
57 | 168 | 9
58 | 159 | 8
59 | 151 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 143 | 7
61 | 136 | 7
62 | 129 | 6
63 | 123 | 7
64 | 116 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 109 | 8
66 | 101 | 8
67 | 93 | 8
68 | 85 | 7
69 | 78 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 71 | 6
71 | 65 | 5
72 | 60 | 5
73 | 55 | 4
74 | 51 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 47 | 5
76 | 42 | 5
77 | 37 | 5
78 | 32 | 5
79 | 27 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
80 | 23 | 3
81 | 20 | 2
82 | 18 | 2
83 | 16 | 2
84 | 14 | 2
-------+-----------+----------
85 | 12 | 2
86 | 10 | 2
87 | 8 | 2
88 | 6 | 2
89 | 4 | 1
-------+-----------+----------
90 | 3 | 1
91 | 2 | 1
92 | 1 | 1

Shewing the Probabilities of Life at BERLIN. Formed from the Bills
from Four Years, from 1752 to 1755. Given by Mr. Susmilch, in his
_Gottliche Ordnung_. Contains 134,000 Inhabitants. Half die under
Three Years of Age.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1427 | 524
1 | 903 | 151
2 | 752 | 61
3 | 691 | 73
4 | 618 | 45
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 573 | 21
6 | 552 | 16
7 | 536 | 13
8 | 523 | 9
9 | 514 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 507 | 5
11 | 502 | 4
12 | 498 | 4
13 | 494 | 4
14 | 490 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 486 | 4
16 | 482 | 5
17 | 477 | 5
18 | 472 | 5
19 | 467 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 461 | 6
21 | 455 | 6
22 | 449 | 6
23 | 443 | 7
24 | 436 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 428 | 7
26 | 421 | 9
27 | 412 | 9
28 | 403 | 9
29 | 394 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 385 | 9
31 | 376 | 8
32 | 368 | 7
33 | 361 | 7
34 | 354 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 347 | 8
36 | 339 | 9
37 | 330 | 10
33 | 320 | 10
39 | 310 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 300 | 10
41 | 290 | 9
42 | 281 | 8
43 | 273 | 7
44 | 266 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 259 | 7
46 | 252 | 7
47 | 245 | 7
48 | 238 | 7
49 | 231 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 224 | 7
51 | 217 | 7
52 | 210 | 7
53 | 203 | 8
54 | 195 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 187 | 8
56 | 179 | 8
57 | 171 | 8
58 | 163 | 9
59 | 154 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 145 | 8
61 | 137 | 7
62 | 130 | 6
63 | 124 | 6
64 | 118 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 112 | 6
66 | 106 | 7
67 | 99 | 7
68 | 92 | 6
69 | 86 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 80 | 6
71 | 74 | 6
72 | 68 | 6
73 | 62 | 5
74 | 57 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 52 | 5
76 | 47 | 5
77 | 42 | 5
78 | 37 | 5
79 | 32 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
80 | 28 | 4
81 | 24 | 3
82 | 21 | 2
83 | 19 | 2
84 | 17 | 2
-------+-----------+----------
85 | 15 | 2
86 | 13 | 2
87 | 11 | 2
88 | 9 | 2
89 | 7 | 1
-------+-----------+----------
90 | 6 | 1
91 | 5 | 1
92 | 4 | 1

Dr. SHORT’S Table, from January 1st, 1728, to 1743; a Period of Fifteen
Years. Died by the London Bills, at all Ages, taken at an Annual
Medium, in the following Proportions.

---------------+-------
Years of Age. | Died.
---------------+-------
Under ------ 2 | 9910
{ 2 to 5 | 2411
{ 5 10 | 980
{10 20 | 851
{20 30 | 2060
{30 40 | 2471
From {40 50 | 2510
{50 60 | 2231
{60 70 | 1675
{70 80 | 1200
{80 90 | 634
{90 100 | 117
------
Total Annual Medium of }
Deaths in this Period }--27,058

A Table of Thirty Years, taken from the London Bills, beginning with
1728, and ending with 1757; shewing the Total Number of Deaths and
Decrease in this Period, at every Age.

---------------+-------
Years of Age. | Died.
---------------+-------
Under ------ 2 | 272903
{ 2 to 5 | 64745
{ 5 10 | 25912
{ 10 20 | 22891
{ 20 30 | 58474
{ 30 40 | 71502
From { 40 50 | 73258
{ 50 60 | 59872
{ 60 70 | 47269
{ 70 80 | 33679
{ 80 90 | 16948
{ 90 100 | 2496
{100 138 | 242
-------
Total Deaths in this Period, }
at all Ages } 750,191

Shewing the Probabilities of Life in a COUNTRY PARISH IN BRANDENBURG.
Formed from the Bills for Fifty Years, from 1710 to 1759, as given
by Mr. Susmilch, in his _Gottliche Ordnung_. One Half born lived to
25 Years of Age.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1000 | 225
1 | 775 | 57
2 | 718 | 31
3 | 687 | 23
4 | 664 | 22
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 642 | 20
6 | 622 | 15
7 | 607 | 12
8 | 595 | 10
9 | 585 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 577 | 7
11 | 570 | 6
12 | 564 | 5
13 | 559 | 5
14 | 554 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 549 | 5
16 | 544 | 5
17 | 539 | 4
18 | 535 | 4
19 | 531 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 527 | 5
21 | 522 | 5
22 | 517 | 5
23 | 512 | 5
24 | 507 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 502 | 4
26 | 498 | 3
27 | 495 | 3
28 | 492 | 3
29 | 489 | 3
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 486 | 4
31 | 482 | 5
32 | 477 | 5
33 | 472 | 5
34 | 467 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 462 | 6
36 | 456 | 6
37 | 450 | 6
38 | 444 | 6
39 | 438 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 432 | 5
41 | 427 | 5
42 | 422 | 5
43 | 417 | 5
44 | 412 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 406 | 6
46 | 400 | 6
47 | 394 | 6
48 | 388 | 7
49 | 381 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 374 | 7
51 | 367 | 8
52 | 359 | 8
53 | 351 | 8
54 | 343 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 334 | 10
56 | 324 | 10
57 | 314 | 10
58 | 304 | 11
59 | 293 | 11
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 282 | 11
61 | 271 | 11
62 | 260 | 12
63 | 248 | 12
64 | 236 | 12
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 224 | 11
66 | 213 | 11
67 | 202 | 12
68 | 190 | 12
69 | 178 | 12
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 166 | 13
71 | 153 | 15
72 | 138 | 16
73 | 122 | 15
74 | 107 | 14
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 93 | 13
76 | 80 | 12
77 | 68 | 9
78 | 59 | 8
79 | 51 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
80 | 44 | 6
81 | 38 | 6
82 | 32 | 6
83 | 26 | 6
84 | 20 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
85 | 15 | 4
86 | 11 | 3
87 | 8 | 2
88 | 6 | 2
89 | 4 | 1
-------+-----------+----------
90 | 3 | 1
91 | 2 | 1
92 | 1 | 1

Shewing the Probabilities of Life in the Parish of HOLY CROSS,
near Shrewsbury, in England. Formed from a Register kept by the
Rev. Mr. Gorsuch for Twenty Years, from 1750 to 1770. One Half born
lived to 27 Years of Age.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1000 | 189
1 | 811 | 49
2 | 762 | 45
3 | 717 | 35
4 | 682 | 23
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 659 | 23
6 | 636 | 18
7 | 618 | 14
8 | 604 | 9
9 | 595 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 589 | 4
11 | 585 | 4
12 | 581 | 4
13 | 577 | 4
14 | 573 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 569 | 4
16 | 565 | 5
17 | 560 | 5
18 | 555 | 5
19 | 550 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 545 | 6
21 | 539 | 7
22 | 532 | 7
23 | 525 | 7
24 | 518 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 512 | 6
26 | 506 | 5
27 | 501 | 5
28 | 496 | 5
29 | 491 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 486 | 5
31 | 481 | 5
32 | 476 | 5
33 | 471 | 5
34 | 466 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 460 | 6
36 | 454 | 7
37 | 447 | 7
38 | 440 | 7
39 | 433 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 426 | 8
41 | 418 | 8
42 | 410 | 9
43 | 401 | 8
44 | 393 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 386 | 7
46 | 379 | 7
47 | 372 | 7
48 | 365 | 6
49 | 359 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 353 | 6
51 | 347 | 7
52 | 340 | 7
53 | 333 | 7
54 | 326 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 318 | 8
56 | 310 | 9
57 | 301 | 9
58 | 292 | 9
59 | 283 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 273 | 10
61 | 263 | 10
62 | 253 | 10
63 | 243 | 10
64 | 233 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 223 | 10
66 | 213 | 10
67 | 203 | 10
68 | 193 | 11
69 | 182 | 11
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 171 | 10
71 | 161 | 10
72 | 151 | 9
73 | 142 | 8
74 | 134 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 126 | 7
76 | 119 | 7
77 | 112 | 7
78 | 105 | 7
79 | 98 | 8
-------+-----------+----------
80 | 90 | 9
81 | 81 | 10
82 | 71 | 10
83 | 61 | 10
84 | 51 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
85 | 41 | 9
86 | 32 | 8
87 | 24 | 7
88 | 17 | 6
89 | 11 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
90 | 7 | 2
91 | 5 | 1
92 | 4 | 1

Shewing the Probabilities of Life in the Country District of VAUD, in
SWITZERLAND, from the Registers of Forty-three Parishes. Given by
Mr. Muret, in the First Part of the _Bern Memoirs_ for the Year
1766. In this Country Province were 112,951 Inhabitants; and one
Half born lived to the Age of 41.

-------+-----------+----------
Ages. | Persons | Decr.
| living. | of life.
-------+-----------+----------
0 | 1000 | 189
1 | 811 | 46
2 | 765 | 30
3 | 735 | 20
4 | 715 | 14
-------+-----------+----------
5 | 701 | 13
6 | 688 | 11
7 | 677 | 10
8 | 667 | 8
9 | 659 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
10 | 653 | 5
11 | 648 | 5
12 | 643 | 4
13 | 639 | 4
14 | 635 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
15 | 631 | 5
16 | 626 | 4
17 | 622 | 4
18 | 618 | 4
19 | 614 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
20 | 610 | 4
21 | 606 | 4
22 | 602 | 5
23 | 597 | 5
24 | 592 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
25 | 587 | 5
26 | 582 | 5
27 | 577 | 5
28 | 572 | 5
29 | 567 | 4
-------+-----------+----------
30 | 563 | 5
31 | 558 | 5
32 | 553 | 5
33 | 548 | 4
34 | 544 | 5
-------+-----------+----------
35 | 539 | 6
36 | 533 | 6
37 | 527 | 7
38 | 520 | 7
39 | 513 | 7
-------+-----------+----------
40 | 506 | 6
41 | 500 | 6
42 | 494 | 6
43 | 488 | 6
44 | 482 | 6
-------+-----------+----------
45 | 476 | 7
46 | 469 | 8
47 | 461 | 10
48 | 451 | 10
49 | 441 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
50 | 431 | 9
51 | 422 | 8
52 | 414 | 8
53 | 406 | 9
54 | 397 | 9
-------+-----------+----------
55 | 388 | 11
56 | 377 | 13
57 | 364 | 16
58 | 348 | 17
59 | 331 | 17
-------+-----------+----------
60 | 314 | 15
61 | 299 | 13
62 | 286 | 12
63 | 274 | 12
64 | 262 | 12
-------+-----------+----------
65 | 250 | 14
66 | 236 | 16
67 | 220 | 18
68 | 202 | 18
69 | 184 | 16
-------+-----------+----------
70 | 168 | 15
71 | 153 | 13
72 | 140 | 11
73 | 129 | 10
74 | 119 | 10
-------+-----------+----------
75 | 109 | 11
76 | 98 | 13
77 | 85 | 14
78 | 71 | 13
79 | 58 | 12
-------+-----------+----------
80 | 46 | 10
81 | 36 | 7
82 | 29 | 5
83 | 24 | 4
84 | 20 | 3
-------+-----------+----------
85 | 17 | 3
86 | 14 | 3
87 | 11 | 2
88 | 9 | 2
89 | 7 | 2
90 | 5 | 1

The two following TABLES are taken from Dr. Price. I have however omitted the fractions, for reasons which shall be explained when treating of the inaccuracy of the public registers. The expectations of life are here rated a few years inferior to the standard of most other authors.

_The probable Expectations or Prospects of Life in_

| | | | | Holy |
| | | | Country | Cross, | Pais de
Ages. |London.|Vienna.|Berlin.| parish of | near | Vaud, in
| | | |Brandenburg.|Shrewsbury.|Switzerland.
--------+-------+-------+-------+------------+-----------+------------
At birth|18 yrs.|17 yrs.|18 yrs.| 33 yrs. | 33 yrs. | 37 yrs.
Age 12|34 |36 |36 | 44 | 44 | 44
25|26 |28 |27 | 36 | 35 | 35
30|24 |26 |25 | 32 | 32 | 31
35|22 |23 |24 | 26 | 28 | 28
40|20 |21 |21 | 25 | 26 | 24
45|18 |18 |19 | 22 | 23 | 21
50|16 |16 |16 | 18 | 20 | 18
55|14 |14 |14 | 15 | 17 | 15
60|13 |12 |13 | 12 | 15 | 12
65|11 |10 |11 | 10 | 12 | 10
70| 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 8
75| 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6
80| 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5

_The Odds or Probability of living ONE Year in_

| | | | | Holy |
| | | | Country | Cross, | Pais de
Ages. |London.|Vienna.| Berlin.| parish of | near | Vaud, in
| | | |Brandenburg.|Shrewsbury.|Switzerland.
--------+-------+-------+--------+------------+-----------+------------
At birth| 2 to 1| 2 to 1| 2 to 1| 4 to 1 | 5 to 1 | 5 to 1
Age 12|75 to 1|84 to 1|123 to 1| 112 to 1 | 144 to 1 | 160 to 1
25|56 to 1|66 to 1| 50 to 1| 110 to 1 | 100 to 1 | 117 to 1
30|45 to 1|56 to 1| 44 to 1| 107 to 1 | 96 to 1 | 111 to 1
40|31 to 1|36 to 1| 32 to 1| 78 to 1 | 55 to 1 | 83 to 1
50|24 to 1|27 to 1| 30 to 1| 50 to 1 | 50 to 1 | 49 to 1
60|18 to 1|19 to 1| 18 to 1| 25 to 1 | 26 to 1 | 23 to 1
70|12 to 1|11 to 1| 12 to 1| 11 to 1 | 16 to 1 | 10 to 1
80| 7 to 1| 7 to 1| 7 to 1| 6 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 4 to 1

Having in the preceding part endeavoured to establish the mortality of the human species at different ages, I am now to attempt a more arduous task; to ascertain the mortality by different diseases. I propose therefore, in imitation of the geographers, to spread out and to review, in one general Chart, the enormous host of diseases which disgorge their virulence over the earth, and, with frightful rapacity, wage incessant hostilities with mankind. By this means, we shall, to use a military phrase, reconnoitre more distinctly our enemies arranged in hostile front; and be warned to make the best disposition and preparation for defence where the greatest danger is apprehended, and the most formidable assaults to be sustained. Armed with diseases, the grim King of Terrors appears in the most hideous aspect. Under all these predatory disguises and morbifick forms, I shall track him grappling with mankind, and with his tremendous scythe mowing down generations. The learned Sauvages thus expresses himself: “Utinam numerus respectivus diversorum morborum a nostratibus inquirarentur.” It is, in some measure, from ignorance in this subject, that the streams of medical inquiries, of academick rudiments, and of charitable donations to poverty in disease, have not yet been pointedly directed to publick utility.

I could easily have exhibited tables of the Diseases and Casualties in London during the greater part of the last century. But, compared to its present magnitude, the British metropolis was then insignificant in size: 23 new parishes have been since gradually added to the London bills: there is also a chasm of 10 years in which the registers are lost. Again, until 1665 and 6, London was infested with the plague; which disease, previous to that date, seems to have been one primary object of the registers: and to adopt Graunt and Short’s sentiments, these records, from various political and religious obstacles, were then very negligently managed. During the early part of this interval, the kingdom was distracted with civil war; and after the great pestilence in 1665, London must have required some years to recruit. Besides, had I attempted to form tables for even the latter part of the last century, the reader would have been fruitlesly embarrassed; and such an attempt must ever prove abortive. For example, under one and the same title, in the annual bills of mortality, are often confounded flox, small pox, and measles: consumptions and tissick: cancer, canker, and thrush: wolf, cancer, gangrene, and fistula: cancer, gangrene, fistula, and mortification: gout and sciatica: vapours and water in the head: quinsey and thrush: teeth and worms: sores, ulcers, bruised and broken limbs: cough, cold, and chincough, &c. These are a few specimens of Nosological absurdity in the superintendents of the publick registers.

Notwithstanding this rabble of diseases in commenting upon the London bills and diseases of the present century, I constantly refer back, and contrast them with the bills of the last thirty years of the preceding century; so that, as near as the imperfection of the materials will admit, the mortality and diseases of 105 years in London is presented at one view; and comprehends the various acute and chronic diseases, by which about two million and a half of the human species have been destroyed. The few authors who have written on bills of mortality, have obscured their works in a cloud of figures and calculation: the reader must have no small portion of phlegm and resolution to follow them throughout with attention: they often tax the memory and patience with a numerical superfluity, even to a nuisance.

For the above, and many other reasons, I have compressed into one chart, the London Diseases and Casualties of seventy-five years in the present century: each disease and casualty arranged in a progressive series of fifteen years mortality; in a fifth column is added together the mortality of the preceding five divisions. During this period, London has been more populous and stationary in numbers: and by this means, the actual and comparative magnitude, rise, and declension of different diseases, will be more conspicuous in each period or interval: and by measuring the mortality with the population, we are enabled, with certain precautions and exceptions, to make the diseases and casualties of London serve as a morbid barometer to the whole nation. The important reason which determined me in forming an arrangement of fifteen years, in preference to any other number or period, was, that the annual havock by similar diseases and casualties, throughout this and the neighbouring island, might be computed with some probability by each fifteen years of the London bills; and thereby to elicite a new, curious, and comprehensive proportion in medicine. For instance, if we suppose the standing number, on an average, of the London inhabitants at six hundred thousand; and the total inhabitants in Britain and Ireland at nine million; and if the same diseases and casualties were equally diffused and fatal to this whole community, then, in such case, the London bills would serve as a scale or index of mortality to both kingdoms: as many would die annually of every disease and casualty throughout nine million, as are cut off in fifteen years in London; for six hundred thousand multiplied by fifteen, amounts to nine million.

But to supply the probable deficiency in the annual mortality of London by different diseases and casualties, we must make an addition to each of one third or fourth. To the mortality of Small-Pox, in London, during fifteen years, and rated at thirty thousand, we should add one third or fourth more to raise it to its just standard; that is, to about thirty-eight thousand; which would be the annual mortality amongst nine million in Britain and Ireland, supposing small-pox equally universal, one time or other, and destructive. By the same hypothesis, amongst two hundred million in Europe Variolous mortality annually, would amount to four hundred thousand; and, amongst eight hundred million; that is, the whole human race would exceed three million annually. On this simple principle, a gross estimate may be formed of the annual havock by every other disease and casualty; taking the precaution, however, to attend to the subsequent criticisms on the London bills.

Another curious corollary may be grounded on the above hypothesis; which is, to form a probable conjecture of the numbers who are annually Sick, or afflicted with different diseases. Example: if one of every seven die of the Small Pox, and the variolous deaths throughout Britain and Ireland are rated at thirty-eight thousand annually, this number, multiplied by seven, amounts to two hundred and sixty-six thousand annually, infected with variolous contagion. Apply the same rule to Childbed mortality; rate the annual havock by parturition in the two islands at four thousand: it will hereafter be shewn, that in London one of seventy-four women die in childbed: multiply therefore 4,000 by 74, the product is 296,000, which, in reality, cannot be very distant from the total annual procreation in both islands. And in these two examples, I have suggested what may be termed an inverse proof of both propositions. From these tables and commentaries, we are likewise furnished with a key to the comparative mortality of each disease amongst a community: whether its devastation is in the proportion of a fifth, tenth, twentieth, or hundredth. Gentlemen who have not particularly attended to the subject of morbid calculations (and very few of the medical profession have) will, on better information, be astonished at the flagrant errors daily committed by authors when treating of these topicks. Out of the many examples which might be enumerated, I shall merely select one in proof. Baron Dimsdale, in a Treatise on Inoculation, dedicated to the present Empress of Russia, calculated that, at least, two million were annually destroyed by Small Pox alone in the Russian empire; and it was not until after the publication of my Observations on his different Inoculating Essays, that this error and others were erased.

I would request the reader’s particular attention to another circumstance: which is, that on comparing the gradations of mortality in the following chart, we are not to estimate the relative number, frequency, or proportion of certain diseases, compared to others by the absolute mortality of each. For instance, Apoplexy kills rather more annually in London than Measles; but yet the latter disease is infinitely more universal and diffused amongst the community, and consequently less dangerous to life: Cancerous and Venereal cases are widely different in the annual number afflicted with each, although the deaths are not far distant from an equality. The same observations will apply to Rheumatism, compared to the Dropsy, and to many other diseases.

There are between eighty and ninety diseases and casualties enumerated in the London bills, which, in the subsequent comments, I have disentangled into their separate genera. But, to prevent the possibility of aberration, after the chart of London diseases, I have added a correct Medical Chart of all the principal diseases and casualties with which mankind, in every part of the earth and ocean, are afflicted or harrassed. This will operate as a check and correction to the public registers; and by this, the defects and errors in the London bills will be apparent; and it will serve as an index to our future commentaries. But objections and difficulties occur in our researches for collateral information and illustration from hospital records. The reasons are glaring, why, in the latter, diseases should be less fatal; and in this respect, cities should have the advantage of the country. We cannot therefore apply hospital registers as a general criterion to a nation. Whenever authentic and systematic records of diseases, recovery, and mortality, are kept in hospitals, domestick as well as military, and annually published, whatever may be alledged respecting the importance and demerits of such institutions, the community, at all events, will derive much useful information.

A CHART of all the Fatal Diseases and Casualties in London, during 75 Years;

Beginning from 1701, and ending with 1776.

Collected from the London Bills of Mortality, and arranged into Five separate progressive Periods of Fifteen Years each.

The Total Amount of the Five Periods, or Seventy-five Years Mortality, is added together in the Sixth Column.