Chapter XI: Part VII (4)

"In reply to yours of the 8th instant, requesting my opinion as
to the accuracy of the statements in your enclosed proof-sheet,
I have to state that, after mature consideration, I generally
concur with the statement drawn by Mr Watson as to the results;
though, I think, that as a deduction of £20 per cent on the
profits of livestock has been made in the free-trade account, a
like percentage should be deducted from the amount stated for
casualties in the charge, thus making the loss under free trade
£20 less. It also appears to me, that both the capital invested,
and the amount received for crop and stock, are considerably
beyond the average of farming capital and proceeds in Strathmore
and the eastern district of Forfarshire; but as the statement is
headed as "under the improved system of agriculture," of course
the amounts must be different, and therefore are acceded to.

"It may be remarked, that the depreciation of £20 per cent on
the value of livestock, which has taken place this year, ought
only to be deducted from the average of the last ten or twelve
years, as the present prices might be considered equal to what
we had been receiving previously to the opening up the southern
markets.

"In my own case, the rent is considerably lower than that
assumed, as I occupy a large proportion of unequal, inferior
soil, which I have drained at my own expense; and, in order
to raise the same quantity of grain per acre as mentioned in
the statement, I have hitherto had to pay at least £100 more
for manure than what seems to be allowed for under the title
'expenses of management.'"--(WILLIAM RUXTON, Farnell, Brechin.)

"I received yours of the 8th, with the enclosed statements
regarding the prospects of agriculture, and as this was a
ploughing-match day, (the Buchan district,) I deferred writing
you until I should also show it to several experienced farmers
for their opinions, and we all consider the statements as near
as may be correct."--(JOHN HUTCHISON, Monyruy, Peterhead.)

"I have examined minutely the statements drawn up by Messrs
Watson and Dudgeon, and have compared them with some
calculations that I had previously made myself, and have
no hesitation in allowing my name to be affixed to them as
attesting their accuracy, in so far as my knowledge of the
localities in which they are drawn up leads me to be a judge.
Had I had time, I should have liked to have furnished you with
a similar comparative statement of the difference likely to
be made by free trade in our more northern climate, where we
cannot raise the same quality of grain, and where little or no
wheat is grown, _and I am much afraid it would not have been
so favourable to farmers_ as Messrs Watson and Dudgeon's are.
The average price of what has been sold of this year's crop,
in the counties of Aberdeen and Banff, is not more, I am sure,
than 1s. 8d. per bushel for oats, and 2s. 6d. for bear or
barley."--(ROBERT SIMPSON, Cobairdy, Huntly.)

"As to the statements of Messrs Watson and Dudgeon, the items
appear to me, on the whole, to be fairly put. My only difficulty
is in regard to the £3000 put down in Mr Watson's statement
as invested capital. I presume, however, he includes in this
draining and lime sunk, machinery, implements, horses, &c.;
and, considering the valuable breed of cattle and sheep on the
Keillor Farm, I would not regard £5000 as at all too large an
estimate for capital of both kinds. As to the considerable
difference in profits shown in Nos. I. and II., that might
be accounted for in many ways. In 500-acre farms, with equal
management and a like rent, greater differences will be induced
by variations in the soil and climate alone.

"On the presumption above stated, as to what Mr Watson means
by invested capital, I have no difficulty in allowing you to
affix my name, as attesting, to the best of my knowledge, the
substantial accuracy of statements Nos. I. and II."--(WILLIAM
M'COMBIE, Tillyfour, Aberdeen.)

"I have gone over the respective statements with much care
and anxiety, and have compared the different items entered to
the debit and credit of the farm by both gentlemen with my
own experience in such matters, and, on the whole, I have no
hesitation in pronouncing them as nearly correct as, under
the circumstances, they could be framed. Were I to draw up a
statement of a farm of the like extent in this county, I believe
the result would be still _less favourable_ for the farmer,
because if we have such returns as are stated by Messrs Watson
and Dudgeon, we obtain them by the application to our land of a
larger quantity of foreign manure than those gentlemen seem to
use."--(PETER BROWN, Linkwood, Elgin.)

Some of the gentlemen to whom we wrote, whilst entirely concurring in the estimates of Messrs Watson and Dudgeon, have not authorised us to affix their names. Only three gentlemen, out of nearly fifty, have refused their assent on the ground of difference of opinion. The most important objection specified by any of them was, that the prices of grain assumed in No. II., as having been received before protection was withdrawn, were _higher_ than those warranted by the fiars' prices of the county. Such were, however, the actual prices received in those years by Mr Dudgeon; and the reader is requested to refer to the extract from Mr Nisbet of Lambden's letter for a corroboration as to that point. That there should be some difference of opinion is only natural, when the variations of soil, climate, and locality are considered; but we think it will generally be admitted, that the ordeal to which these estimates have been exposed, without exciting more challenge than we have just noticed, is a tolerably convincing proof of their general accuracy.

The receipt of these statements has induced several gentlemen, in different parts of the country, to draw up further estimates of the working of farms in their own districts, and these documents we now proceed to lay before our readers--

No. III.

STATEMENT of INCOME and EXPENDITURE on an Aberdeenshire farm of the
ordinary description, taking the value of produce at an average of
a series of years--say 19--previously to the late alteration of the
law in relation to the importation of corn and cattle.--Extent,
250 acres.

ANNUAL EXPENDITURE.

Rent of a farm of 250 acres imperial, at £1, 1s. per acre, £262 10 0
Invested capital, £1000--interest at 10 per cent, 100 0 0
Floating capital, in stock, &c., £1800--interest at 5 per cent, 90 0 0
Servants' wages, per annum, 129 0 0
Day-labourers' wages, &c., 15 0 0
Rye-grass and clover seeds, 20 0 0
Tradesmen's accounts, 50 0 0
Public burdens, 15 0 0
Casual losses of stock, and partial insurance, 40 0 0
Expenses in driving grain and extraneous manures, in the shape of
tolls, &c., with necessary expenses at markets, 20 0 0
_________
Total expenditure, £741 10 0

ANNUAL INCOME.

250 acres, on the five-course rotation:--
In oats--80 acres, at 6 qrs. per acre, 480 qrs.
Deduct for seed, 60 qrs.
Do. for horses, meal, &c., 120 "
_______ 180 "

Oats to be disposed of, 300 qrs. at 21s. = £315 0 0

In barley--20 acres, at 5-1/2 qrs. per acre, 110 qrs.
Deduct for seed, malt, &c., 15 "

Barley to be disposed of, 95 qrs. at 29s. = 137 15 0

Realised from cattle fed on 100 acres of grass and
50 acres of turnips, 400 0 0

Total income, ______ 852 15 0
_________
Profit--or return for labour, skill, and risk of capital, £111 5 0
=========

INCOME UNDER FREE-TRADE PRICES.

Oats, 300 quarters, at 14s. per quarter, £210 0 0
Barley, 95 quarters, at 20s. per quarter, 95 0 0
And--on the supposition that no reduction of the price of fat cattle
is to take place on account of the free importation of foreign
animals--let us take the receipts from cattle fed on the grass and
turnips as above, viz., 400 0 0
________
Total income under free-trade prices of grain, £705 0 0

Brought forward, £705 0 0

Expenditure as above, viz., 741 10 0

Loss per annum, £36 10 0
Or, adding former profit, viz. as above, 111 5 0

Total loss, on _grain alone_, by free trade, £147 15 0
=========

I consider the above a fair statement of the expenditure and income on a farm in the lower district of Aberdeenshire, under former and under present circumstances. It will be observed that no wheat is grown; but the soil is well adapted for the rearing and feeding of cattle, and from this source the Aberdeenshire farmer expects to derive a large proportion of his returns. In the comparison, reference is had solely to the fall in the price of the kinds of grain cultivated. Whatever decline in the price of fat cattle may arise from free trade, will fall heavily on the farmers of this district; and the reduction of income thus occasioned will, of course, add to the amount of loss shown above.

JAMES HAY,
LITTLE YTHSIE, _13th December 1849._

Having lately had an opportunity of examining a number of _actual_ accounts of income and expenditure on various farms, I can confirm the substantial accuracy and fairness of the above statements, Nos. I. and II. Mr Hay's statement above, referring to the system of agriculture with which, in this part of the country, we are most conversant, may, in my humble opinion, be regarded as fair and just, and as near the average that a comparison of a number of individual cases would indicate, as it can be made.

I am sensible that, in many cases of calculations--more especially in those in which certain assumptions have to be made--it is quite possible, even with a show of fairness, to bring out by means of figures almost any result that may be desired; but it is to be observed that, in the above statements, the _same_ assumptions (if they can be regarded as such) are made on both sides of the comparison, with the exception of the prices at which agricultural produce is taken; and it is submitted with confidence that these are neither made higher in the one case, nor lower in the other, than experience warrants.

W. HAY,
TILLYDESK, _14th December 1849_.

No. IV.

ESTIMATED VALUE, of the produce upon a farm in Roxburghshire of 500 acres,
managed according to the five-shift rotation, thus:--

200 acres of corn crop.
200 " of grass.
100 " of turnips.
____
500

It is here assumed that there are no local advantages, the whole green crops being consumed upon the farm by sheep and cattle.

I. PRODUCE OF CORN CROPS.
Bush. Bush. Bush.

Oats, 100 acres, at 48, = 4800, off 2400, leaves for sale, 2400
Wheat, 60 " at 38, = 1980, off 180, " 1800
Barley, 40 " at 42, = 1680, off 340, " 1340

_Average Value during the ten years preceding Crop 1848._

2400 bushels of oats, at 3s., £360
1800 " of wheat, at 7s., 630
1340 " of barley, at 4s., 268
________ 1258 0 0

Value of grass and turnips, 800 0 0
________
Total amount of produce sold, £2058 0 0

Brought forward, 2058 0 0

_Expenses and Rent--_
Annual charges for wages and tradesmen's bills, &c., £400 0 0
Public and parish burdens, 45 0 0
Annual outlay for extra manures, 150 0 0
£595 0 0

Capital sunk upon improvements, £2500, at 10 per cent, 250 0 0
Value of stock and crop, forming a floating capital of £2000,
at 5 per cent per annum, 100 0 0

Insurance of stock against deaths and other casualties, 50 0 0
________ 995 0 0
£1063 0 0

Rent, 800 0 0
________
Tenant's profit, £263 0 0
========

ESTIMATED VALUE of the same amount of produce at the present rate of
prices:--

2400 bushels of oats, at 2s., £240 0 0
1800 " of wheat, at 5s., 450 0 0
1340 " of barley, at 2s. 9d., 214 5 0
________ £904 5 0

Value of grass and turnips, 700 0 0
________
Total amount of produce, £1604 5 0
Amount of expenses, as above, 995 0 0
________
£609 5 0

Rent, 300 0 0
________
Tenant's loss £191 15 0
========
Value of produce by 1st estimate, £2118 0 0
Do. by 2d do, 1615 10 0
________
Difference, £502 10 0
========

The total amount of capital invested is £4500, of which £2500 is sunk upon improvements. According to the first estimate, the annual return, exclusive of 5 per cent per annum for repayment of the sum sunk, would be £548, or at the rate of about 12-1/5 per cent. According to the second estimate, the annual return would be £45, 10s., or at the rate of about 1 per cent per annum upon the same sum.

I shall be glad to allow my name to be affixed to Mr Dudgeon's statement, as attesting, in so far as my experience goes, the accuracy of it.

My estimates and his very nearly correspond; but as every one has his own method of making up such statements, I take the liberty of handing along with it this detail of my own.

In all, excepting in regard to the value of live stock, or produce of grass and turnips, we nearly agree; and this difference may be accounted for, because no part of farm produce varies so much in its return as that of the live stock. Upon such a farm as that which is taken as an example, sheep and cattle are not wholly reared upon the farm, but part are bought in to fatten; hence the returns depend upon three circumstances,--1st, upon the crops of turnips and grass being less or more abundant; 2d, upon the price of lean stock; and, 3d, upon the price of fat. While, therefore, the butcher market may be very high, the feeder may not necessarily be well paid,--and hence, in making up returns under this head, a correct average is not easily ascertained; and as there must always be a difference of opinion among practical men upon this part of the subject, I think, for publication, Mr Dudgeon's method of stating the returns _in one sum_ is preferable to giving them in detail.

JAS. ROBERTON,
LADYRIG, _13th Dec. 1849_.

No. V.

STATEMENT of the ANNUAL CHARGE against, and RETURNS from, a 400 imperial
acre Farm in Mid-Lothian--on an average of ten years previous to free
trade in corn and cattle;--with a comparative statement of the Returns
of Produce from the same farm under the present free-trade measures
affecting agriculture. The farm alluded to is managed on the four-course
shift--the whole straw, turnips, and clover being consumed on it, and an
average number of stock fattened.

Rent of farm, 400 acres at 45s. per acre, £900 0 0
Interest on sunk and floating capital, 240 0 0
Expenses of management, wages, tradesmen's accounts, extra
manures, grass and clover seeds, and miscellaneous expenses, 817 0 0
Casualties in stock, and fire insurance, 40 0 0
Public and parish burdens, 40 0 0
__________
Total yearly charge, £2037 0 0

To meet this sum there is the produce of 230 acres corn crop,
10 acres potatoes, and the profits from live stock as follows:--

100 acres oats, at 48 bushels per imperial acre, 4800
Less for seed, servants' meal, and horses, 2004
____
Leaving for sale, 2796 at 3s. 3d., £454 7 0
____

70 acres wheat, at 32 bushels per acre, 2240
Less for seed, 220
____
Leaving for sale, 2020 at 7s., 707 0 0

30 acres barley, at 48 bushels per acre, 1440
____
Less for seed, 100
Leaving for sale, 1340 at 4s., 268 0 0
____
30 acres beans, at 40 bushels per acre, 1200
Less for seed, 110
____
Leaving for sale, 1090 at 4s. 6d., 245 5 0
____

Produce of 10 acres potatoes, after deducting seed, 100 0 0
Profits from live stock fed upon 60 acres turnips and
100 acres grass, 550 0 0
__________
Total return, £2324 12 0
_________ 2324 12 0
Profit, £287 12 0

The like quantities of disposable grain, taken at the present prices,
fetch as follows:--

2796 bushels oats, @ 2s. 4d., £326 4 0
2020 " wheat, @ 4s. 9d., 479 15 0
1340 " barley, @ 3s. 0d., 201 0 0
1090 " beans, @ 3s. 3d, 177 12 6
10 acres potatoes, 100 0 0
Add profits from live stock, 550 0 0
__________
Total returns £1834 11 6

Sum chargeable as above against the farm, £2037 0 0
__________
202 8 6

Leaving the farmer short, for rent, capital, and expenses
of management,
202 8 6
_________
Total loss annually incurred, £490 0 6
==========

THOs. SADLER,
NOTRON MAINS, _14th December 1849._

No. VI.

VALUATION of PRODUCE, and EXPENSE of MANAGEMENT of a Farm of
320 Scots acres, situated within five miles of Edinburgh, on an
average of seven years previous to potato failure in 1846, and
farmed according to the four-shift rotation, the straw being sold
in Edinburgh, and dung bought. The produce is a fair average of
the best-managed farms within five miles of Edinburgh, during the
period from which the average is taken. The prices noted are what
were realised, being about 3s. 6d. per qr. above the average prices
of the county, and the expense of management charged is what was
actually paid.

Acres. £ _s._ _d._

50 Potatoes, at £17 per acre, 850 0 0
30 Turnip, at £16 per do., 480 0 0
50 Wheat, 5 qrs. per acre, at 58s.
per qr., 725 0 0
30 Barley, 7 do. do., at 34s. do., 357 0 0
50 Pasture, let at £4 per Scots
acre, 200 0 0
30 Hay, at £7 per do., 210 0 0
80 Oats, 7-1/2 qrs. per acre,
at 26s. per qr., 780 0 0
___
320

Produce of straw sold, 450 0 0
Manure made on the farm from
horses, &c., 80 0 0
_________
Value of produce, 4132 0 0
Expense of management, 4025 17 6
__________
Profit, £106 2 6
_________

[We ought, perhaps, to explain that this case is peculiar. It is that of a first-class farm in the neighbourhood of Edinburgh, attested by men of the same standing as its tenant, and similarly situated; the average of the produce is very high, and the rent corresponding. Mr Gibson, the tenant farmer, has taken the details of the following statement from his books; so that it becomes of much value, as showing the statistics of farming in the immediate vicinity of the metropolis of Scotland. In estimating the productiveness of this farm by the extent of the yield, our English readers must bear in mind, that it is divided by the Scots and not the imperial acre as in the other estimates, the former being one-fifth larger. It will be allowed, on all hands, that the yield of this farm is extraordinary.]

Acres. £ _s._ _d._

S
e {50 Potatoes, at £2 per Scots acre, 100 0 0
e {30 Turnip, at 4s. per do, 6 0 0
d {50 Wheat, 23 qrs. at 60s., 69 0 0
{30 Barley, 14 qrs. at 35s., 24 10 0
f {50 Pasture, at 17s. per acre, 42 10 0
o {30 Hay, at 15s. per do., 22 10 0
r {80 Oats, at 40 qrs. at 28s., 56 0 0
____
320

50 acres potatoes, 34 tons per
acre, horse and cow manure
driven from Edinburgh, at
6s. per ton, 510 0 0
30 acres turnip, 30 tons do., at
4s. per ton, 180 0 0
Keep of 15 horses, at £28 per
annum, 420 0 0
Do. of 1 riding horse, do., 28 0 0
Wages of farm overseer, per
annum, 32 0 0
Do. 8 ploughmen, at £27
per do., 216 0 0
Do. 2 labourers at 10s.,
and 1 boy at 5s. per week, 65 0 0
Outdoor women-workers per
annum, 165 0 0
Reaping 160 acres corn crop,
at 12s. per acre, 96 0 0
Wages of extra men securing
crop, 13 0 0
Cutting 30 acres hay, at 3s. 9d., 5 12 6
Cutting hedges, and keeping
fences, gates, and houses in
repair, 10 0 0
Smith work, per annum, 35 0 0
Carpenter work, do., 22 0 0
Veterinary surgeon, do., 7 0 0
Saddler work, do., 17 0 0
Millwright, engineer, mason,
and slater's accounts, 10 0 0
Coals for steam-engine, and
steaming and bruising horse
food, 12 0 0
Annual loss on live and dead
stock, from death and tear
and wear, 90 0 0
Tolls, custom, and marketing
expenses, 25 0 0
Insurance, 6 0 0
Poor-rates and statute-labour,
previous to passing of New
Poor Law, 30 17 0
Assessed taxes and income tax, 19 18 0
Interest on £1500 capital, sunk
in permanent improvements,
at 10 per cent, 150 0 0
Interest on floating capital of
£2000, at 5 per cent, 100 0 0
Rent of 320 Scots acres, at
£4 10s. per acre, 1440 0 0
____ _____
Expense of management, £4025 17 6

VALUATION of PRODUCE and EXPENSES of MANAGEMENT of the same Farm,
for Crop 1849: as the Wheat crop is considered to be the best we
have had in the district since 1835, every allowance is made for
this in estimating the produce. The Oat, Barley, and Bean crops are
under an average, but are charged at average quantities; the prices
noted are what are being realised. In the expense of management full
allowance is made in every item affected by present prices, except
the seed, which is charged as paid for at seed time: had it been
charged at present prices, there would fall to be deducted from
expense of management a sum of £28.

Acres.
25 Potatoes, supposing them to
be sound, at £20, 500 0 0
35 Turnips, at £14, 490 0 0
20 Beans, 5 qrs. per acre, at 26s.
per qr., 130 0 0
45 Wheat, 6 qrs. per acre, at 38s.
per qr. 513 0 0
35 Barley, 7 qrs. per acre, at 23s.
per qr., 281 15 0
50 Pasture, let at £4 per acre, 200 0 0
30 Hay, at £5, 10s. per acre, 165 0 0
80 Oats, 7-1/2 qrs. per acre, at 18s.
___ per qr., 540 0 0
320

Produce of straw, sold, at present
prices, 400 0 0
Manure made on the Farm, 70 0 0
_________
Value of Produce, £3,289 15 0
Expense of Management, 3,786 14 0
_________
Loss, £496 19 0
Annual Profit previous
to 1846, £106 2 6
_________
Loss incurred by difference
of price under free-trade, £603 1 6
_________

Acres.[**The prices were not in image so taken from Google books version]

Seed for
25 | Potatoes, at £4 per Scots acre, 100 0 0
35 | Turnips, at 5s. per acre, 8 15 0
20 | Beans, 12-1/2 qrs., at 34s., per qr., price,
| at seed time, 21 5 0
45 | Wheat, 20 qrs., at 62s., do., 62 0 0
35 | Barley, 17-1/2 qrs., at 33s., do., 28 17 6
50 | Pasture, at 14s. per acre, do., 35 0 0
30 | Hay, at 12s. do., do., 18 0 0
80 | Oats, 40 qrs., at 22s. per qr., do., 44 0 0
___
320

25 acres potatoes, 30 tons per acre,
horse and cow manure, driven from
Edinburgh, at 5s. per ton, 187 10 0
20 acres beans, 20 tons manure per
acre, at 5s. per ton, 100 0 0
35 acres turnips, 25 tons do., at 3s. 6d.
per ton, 153 2 6
Guano and other extra manures applied
to turnip, potato, and other crops, 125 0 0
Keep of 15 horses, at £22 per annum, 330 0 0
Keep of 1 riding horse, do., 22 0 0
Wages of farm overseer, per annum, 30 0 0
Do. 8 ploughmen, at £25 per do., 200 0 0
Do. 2 labourers, at 9s. each, and
1 boy 5s. per week, 59 16 0
Outdoor women workers, per annum, 165 0 0
Reaping 160 acres corn crop, at 10s. 6d.
per acre, 84 0 0
Wages of extra men securing crop, 12 0 0
Cutting 30 acres hay, at 3s. per acre, 4 10 0
Cutting hedges, and keeping fences,
gates, and houses in repair, 10 0 0
Smith work, per annum, 35 0 0
Carpenter's work, do., 22 0 0
Veterinary surgeon, do., 7 0 0
Saddler work, do., 17 0 0
Millwright, engineer, mason, and
slater's accounts, 10 0 0
Coals for steam engine, and steaming
and bruising horses' food, 10 0 0
Annual loss on live and dead stock,
from death and tear and wear, 90 0 0
Tolls, custom, and marketing expenses, 25 0 0
Insurance, 6 0 0
Poor rates and statute labour under
New Poor Law, 54 0 0
Assessed taxes and income tax, 19 18 0
Interest on £1500 capital, sunk in
permanent improvements, at 10 per
cent, 150 0 0
Interest on floating capital of £2000,
at 5 per cent, 100 0 0
Rent of 320 acres, at £4, 10s. per
acre, 1,440 0 0
_________
Expenses of Management, £3,786 14 0
_________

JOHN GIBSON,
WOOLMET, _18th December 1849._

{JOHN FINNIE, Swanston.
Attested by {GEORGE WATSON, Libberton Mains.
{ALEXANDER SCOTT, Craiglockhart.

Let those who believe that, by high farming, the soil can be stimulated so as to produce enormously augmented crops, at a large additional profit, consider the above statistics well. THEY ARE THE STATISTICS OF THE VERY HIGHEST FARMING IN SCOTLAND. The English agriculturist has been taunted for his backwardness in not adopting the improvements of his northern neighbour, who, with a worse climate, has made the most of the soil. Such has been the language used by some of the advocates and apologists of free trade, who are now urging the farmer to lay out more capital in draining and manures--assuring him that, by doing so, the returns will far exceed the interest of the outlay. With a fine disregard for the elements of arithmetic, they insist that low prices can in no way interfere with his success, and that only exertion and enterprise are wanting to raise him above the reach of foreign competition. The above tables exhibit the experiment, worked out to its highest point. In these cases capital has been liberally expended, energy tasked to the utmost, and every means, which science can devise or experience suggest, called into active operation. The farmers of Mid-Lothian, Berwickshire and Forfarshire may fairly challenge the world in point of professional attainments. They have done all that man can do, and here is the reward of their toil.

Supposing, then, that hereafter the permanent price of wheat were to be 40s. a quarter; that other cereal produce remained at corresponding rates; and that the value of live stock did not diminish--points, upon all of which we are truly more than sceptical--it will follow that high farming, such as is at present practised in the best agricultural districts of Scotland, cannot by possibility be carried on. No possible reduction of rent would suffice to enable the farmer to continue his competition. Such a fall must necessarily have the effect of annihilating one of the two classes; for the landlord, burdened as he is, would cease to draw the means of maintenance from his estate, and it is questionable whether the residue would suffice to pay the interest of the mortgages and preferable burdens. To the people of Scotland this is the most vital question that has engaged their attention since the Union. Our national prosperity does not depend upon manufactures to the same degree as that of England. By far the greater portion of our wealth arises directly from the soil: by far the larger number of our population depend upon that for their subsistence. Even if Manchester statistics were applicable to England, the case is different here. If the prices of agricultural produce should continue as low as at present--and we cannot see what chance exists of their rising, in the face of such a tremendous import--the effect upon this country must be disastrous. Such prices would reduce Scotland, at one fell swoop, to the condition of Ireland: paralyse the home market for manufactures; throw hundreds of thousands out of employment; lower the revenue; augment the poor-rates; and utterly disorganise society. And yet what help for it? The farmer cannot be expected to pay for the privilege of losing several hundreds per annum by cultivation. Let Mr Watson's statement be examined, and it will appear that the enterprising and skilful tenant of a farm of five hundred acres, in the best corn district of Forfar, cannot clear his expenses unless the rent of the land is reduced by one-half, and, even if that were done, he could only realise a profit of sixpence per acre! Such a result, we fairly allow, would appear, at first sight, to be incredible; yet there it is--vouched for by men of name, character, and high reputation. This is the extreme case; but, if we pass to Berwickshire, we shall find that a reduction of half the rent would barely place the tenant in the same position which he occupied previous to the withdrawal of protection. Look at No. IV., and the result will appear worse. Even were one half of the rent remitted, the profits of the tenants, at present prices, would be less by £100 than they were at the former rates of corn. Very nearly the same results will be brought out, if we calculate the necessary reductions on the rents of the Mid-Lothian farms. Lord Kinnaird may see in those tables the fate which is in store for him; and he cannot hope to escape it long, even by inserting, in his new leases, the most stringent stipulations as to money payments which legal ingenuity can devise. It is just possible that "men of business habits," retired shopkeepers, and others of that class, may be coaxed and persuaded into trying their hands at a trade of which they know literally nothing. They may be incautious enough to put their names to covenants, not conceived according to Mr Caird's liberal principle, and so pledge their capital for the fulfilment of a bargain which common sense declares, and experience proves, to be preposterous. The necessary consequence will be, that the rent must be paid out of capital, a process which cannot last long; and the unhappy speculator, as he finds his earnings disappearing, will curse the hour when he yielded to the delusion, that high farming must be profitable in spite of the variations of price. The poor seamstress, who weekly turns out of hand her augmented number of improved shirts--and who lately, though on exceedingly erroneous principles, has found a warm advocate in the kind-hearted Mr Sydney Herbert--has, in her own way, tested the value of the experiment. There is more cotton to be shaped, and more work to be done, but the prices continue to fall. She makes two additional shirts, but she receives nothing for the additional labour, because the remuneration for each is beaten down. The free-trade tariffs are the cause of her distress, but the unfortunate creature is not learned in statistics, and therefore does not understand the source of her present misery. No more, probably, do the female population of the Orkney islands, whom Sir Robert Peel reduced to penury some years ago, by a single stroke of his pen, through the article of straw-plait. From Lerwick to the Scilly Isles, the poor industrious classes were made the earliest victims. The tiller of the land is liable to the operation of the same rules. By the outlay of capital, he forces an additional crop, but, the value of produce having fallen, his returns, estimated in money, are just the same as before. If the maintenance of rents throughout the United Kingdom depends simply upon the supply of dupes, we are afraid that the Whig landlords will speedily find themselves in a sorry case.

We by no means wish to treat this question as if Scotland alone were concerned. The English agriculturist, who knows that strict economy is the rule in northern farming, will readily acknowledge that our observations have even greater force when applied to his own case. It would have been presumption in us, had we passed beyond the limits of our own field of illustration, which, however, will bear comparison with any other. On the whole, we think it will hardly be questioned, that, if high farming in the Lothians or on the Border is a losing trade, it cannot be made profitable elsewhere within the boundaries of Britain.

We are told that this is a landlord's question; and we find Messrs Bright and Cobden, with more than their usual malignity, chuckling over the prospects of the downfall of a class which they honour with their rancorous hatred. They do not affect to disguise the pleasure which they derive from knowing that, at this moment, the rents are being paid from the farmer's capital; and, so far, they bear important testimony to the truth of the calculations we have submitted. It is not our business at present to diverge into ethics, else we might be tempted to hazard a few observations on the brutal and un-British spirit which pervades the whole of their late harangues. All that we shall do now is to remark that they are trying, by every means in their power, to persuade the tenantry of Britain that this is a mere landlords' question; and we are bound to confess, that such writers as Lord Kinnaird have materially contributed towards fostering this delusion. A very little consideration, however, will show the utter fallacy of such an opinion; and we feel convinced that the good sense of the tenantry of Scotland will interfere to prevent them from being led astray by the devices of their inveterate enemies.

So far as we can gather from the opinions enunciated by the leaders of the Manchester school, at their late gatherings, their view resolves itself into this. Abolish the rents, and agriculture will go on as before. Little argument is necessary to show, that the proposition, even were it admitted, is by no means in favour of the farmer.

Our excellent contemporary, _The Standard_, has already disposed of it in a single sentence:--_Wipe off the rents, and you wipe away the class which heretofore has paid the rents._ Mr Bright would fain attempt to persuade the farmers that they are altogether independent of the landlords, and that no suffering can reach them. Have then the landlords, in most instances, expended nothing on the soil? Their outlay does not appear in balance sheets, however large may be its amount; but, were that outlay added to the farmer's expenditure of capital, there can be no doubt that, even without rent, at present prices, farming would be otherwise than profitable. But did it never strike Mr Bright that, failing rents, the landlords must necessarily take their farms into their own hands, as indeed has occurred already in several districts of the country? We presume he does not contemplate a quiet confiscation of estates--if he does, confiscation will not stop there. We suppose the owner must still have the option of keeping his property; and if so, as he will derive no profit from it in the shape of rent, he must either farm it himself, or act as labourer on wages under a farmer. We apprehend there can be little doubt as to the course he will take, when driven to such an extremity. As a body, tenant-farmers will cease to exist. They may go to Poland if they please, and employ their practical skill, and such remnant of capital as they can save from the wreck of their fortunes, in the patriotic task of growing wheat cheaper than before, for the British manufacturing market; but in this country there will be no longer any room for them. We shall be thankful to know if any course more feasible can be suggested; but indeed ingenuity seems to be at fault, and the Free-traders hardly affect to conceal their conviction that such must be the result. The following extract from a leading article in the _Times_ of 6th December, will show the views entertained by that very influential journal.

"If any landowners or tenants are thoroughly persuaded that,
under the operation of free trade, land will yield no rent to
the owner, or no profit to the farmer, let them dispose of their
land or their farms. The whole world lies before them. The
funds, the share-market, trades and manufactures innumerable
and new ones every day, the colonies, the United States, the
Antipodes, Europe, and literally the whole surface of the globe,
is open to the enterprise of wealthy or ingenious men. Those
who regard an English landlord or yeoman as an animal to be
kept in a hothouse will think this very cruel advice, but it is
advice which nine-tenths of our fellow-subjects have to follow,
at least once in their lives. The law of change is impressed on
the whole face of society. Man improves by being transplanted
to new soils, and grafted on new stocks. Why should not the
heroic qualities of our gentry be employed in the improvement
of the world, and in the spread of civilisation, religion, and
manners? Why should not the skill of our farmers be turned to
account in making the whole earth bring forth its full produce?
As it happens, there are no classes actually concerned in the
material and operations of industry who can change their place
with so little difficulty or cost as the owners and cultivators
of the soil. The landowner can sell his estate, and buy another,
or invest the money in the funds, any day he pleases. The tenant
can dispose of his lease and his stock without much sacrifice.
Can an attorney, a physician or surgeon, a beneficed clergyman,
a merchant, a retail shopkeeper, or, indeed, any commercial
or professional person, change his locality ten miles without
sacrificing at least 30 or 50 per cent of his present income?
Yet many such are obliged to migrate, and resign present
income, besides all the other losses involved in a move, in the
mere hope of ultimately improving their condition. As for our
agricultural labourers, who, we are often told, are the staple
of our population, for many years the whole force and pressure
of our social institutions has been applied to compel their
migration. Landlord, tenant, parson, overseer, and even a man's
own fellow-labourers, are all in a conspiracy to elbow him out
of the crowd, and the sooner he yields to that pressure the
better. Why, then, should it be thought a hard thing to give the
same advice to the landowner and the farmer?"

So write the Free-traders, and we wish them joy of their argument. Henceforth, then, we ought to abandon all foolish scruples connected with home, and kindred, and country--all national considerations, all the ties and common feelings that hitherto have held Englishmen together! Truly, the cause which requires such advocacy as this must be in a desperate condition. Such language however, extravagant and puerile as it is, has some extrinsic value; for it shows us the utter selfishness and entire disregard of the Free-traders for every other interest in Britain except their own.

We shall probably be told that we are alarmists. It is no new charge against us. The same thing was said when we denounced the policy of government towards the West Indian interest, and also when we foreshadowed the commercial crisis which overtook us in 1847. One exception may be taken to our agricultural views, on the ground that farms have been let in Scotland without any diminution of rent. We allow that such is the case. We admit that, even during the bygone year, there has been considerable competition for farms; and we know very well that this circumstance has tended to allay the fears of many. But, after all, what does it prove? Nothing more, we apprehend, than that the farmer is most reluctant to abandon the profession to which he has been bred, and in which his capital is invested; and that, in times of notoriously unsettled and vacillating legislation, he may be, perhaps, too sanguine as to the possibility of another change. The fact that some farms, in various parts of the country, have, of late, brought full and even higher rents, is not enough to warrant the idea that present engagements can be met. It does not follow that these will continue to be paid; nor do the parties themselves, we presume, expect to be able to fulfil their engagements, if future prices are such as we have felt constrained to reckon them. We have seen of late, in other matters, how easily people are deceived by sanguine anticipations; and it has recently been lamentably proved, that it is often long before disastrous events produce their due effect in indicating true value. If, in the less intricate matter of railway speculations, we have seen men who boasted of their superior information, involving themselves in the downward course of these unfortunate concerns, under the idea that the turning-point of depression had been attained, and that golden profits might be realised, is it marvellous if the farmer should be deceived in a matter which has been so much mystified, and which his predilections and peculiar position, in most instances, will not admit of his viewing calmly and dispassionately, even if he possessed the means of correct information? His education and habits compel him to endeavour to continue his occupation at all hazards. If once he abandon his calling, he is out of a situation as well as a home. It often happens, besides, and now it is peculiarly the case, that, to dispose of his stocking--a necessity incumbent upon the loss of his farm--is to make a sacrifice of his property. At present, live stock is from 15 to 20 per cent under what he has been in the habit of receiving for the last few years. Hence, upon such a vexed question as the effects of the corn laws, modified and free, have become, it is only natural that, in his doubt, and darkness, and perplexity, he should stretch a point to keep possession of his occupation; trusting that, if matters continue to be adverse, his landlord will have the like commiseration for him which it is his duty to testify for his neighbour, who, under other circumstances, is also writhing beneath the pressure. In such a case, rent becomes altogether a question of chance, left to be modified and controlled by after circumstances.

In this view it is not difficult to understand why farms falling out of lease have been taken at rates absurdly disproportioned to the present prices of agricultural produce. Ask any intelligent farmer, who has placed himself in this position, and he will frankly confess that he does not expect to be able to pay his rent, unless some very material change in the value of produce shall take place. How should he think otherwise? In the better districts of Scotland, farming has been carried so high that there is hardly any margin left for improvement. Up to a certain point, the soil may be artificially stimulated; but, that point once reached, any further appliances become positively hurtful, and defeat the intentions of the grower. The flower of our tenantry--the men whose exertions have made the land what it is--can go but a little way further. Nor can the severest moralist tax them with a breach of probity if they should enter into bargains which, under the operation of the present laws, they cannot possibly fulfil. The legislature took no account of them when it abolished protection. Parliament dealt with them more tyrannically than any irresponsible monarch would have dared to deal with a people far less intelligent and far less cognisant of their rights. The laws have ceased to be, in the estimation of the multitude, final. We now consider them, and most justly, as mere make-shifts which cannot stand against the pressure of a well-organised agitation; and men speculate on the probability of their changes, just as gamblers make adventures on the probable fluctuations of the funds. No man can deny that such is the case. Free trade is in the ascendant to-day: to-morrow, protection may be uppermost. A sad state of things truly; but such as must necessarily occur, when statesmen, whose heads have grown hoary in office, desert principle to adopt expediency, and repudiate the professions of a whole lifetime, for the sake of outwitting their political opponents. Our steadfast conviction is, that unsettled legislation has tended more than anything else to prevent an immediate depreciation in the rents. Foster gambling, and you create gamblers. Farms are now taken on speculation, with the view, not to increased production of the land, but to further changes in the experimental policy of the nation.

But in reality we apprehend that such cases are the exception, and not the rule. We have heard it trumpeted abroad that certain farms in East Lothian were let during the course of last year at an advance. We have taken pains to investigate this matter; and we find on inquiry that, in some cases, such farms have been taken by new men of little agricultural experience. Lord Kinnaird may be glad to hear this, but we cannot view it in the light of an encouraging symptom. Others, no doubt, have been retaken, probably under the influence of such considerations as we have just stated. Again, we find that some farms in the south of Scotland are very differently situated now, than they were before. The extension of the railway system has given to such of them as are near stations, advantages which were enjoyed heretofore by such farms only as were in the immediate vicinity of large towns; and in this way their value has been increased. But it is quite evident, that, unless some extraordinary fallacy lurks in the tables which we have given above--unless the leading practical agriculturists of Scotland are either possessed by some monstrous arithmetical delusion, or banded in some organised conspiracy to mislead the public mind--no exceptional case can be admitted as of any weight whatever in determining the general question. On the part of ourselves, and of our correspondents, we not only invite, but we broadly challenge investigation. We desire that the truth may be made known, because any delusion on either side must tend to the public detriment.

If our statistics should be admitted as correct, we think it must be clear to demonstration that British agriculture cannot maintain itself longer against the competition of the foreign grower. We believe it impossible for any man who has attended to the minute statements given above, to arrive at an opposite conclusion. No appliances, no energy, no high farming, can avail in this ruinous struggle. To expect that more capital will be embarked in so losing a trade, is perfectly idle. Even if tenants had the wish to do so, they would fail for the want of means. It will be seen from the preceding tables what amount of capital is usually perilled on Scottish farms, and what amount of loss, at present prices, the farmer must necessarily sustain. Even in better times, few men could afford to do as much as has already been done by the agriculturists of the Lothians and Berwickshire; and, under existing circumstances, the great body of the tenantry cannot find the means to continue their ordinary operations. With capital exhausted and credit denied to him, what is the farmer to do? The question is one which we would fain see answered, and that immediately, by those who have brought us to the present pass. It cannot remain long unanswered, without such an augmentation of distress as must render all remedy ineffectual.

So far we have spoken for the tenant, who, as an old contracting party, has been utterly sacrificed by free-trade legislation. As a new contractor, we have shown that he is placed under circumstances of peculiar disadvantage, arising from ignorance as to his real position, his past exertions, and his future prospects. Had we spoken rashly on this matter, we should have been liable to the utmost blame; but we have not put forward any one position which is not based upon facts, laboriously ascertained, and closely scrutinised; and all these are open to challenge, if any assailant has the mind, or the power, to refute us. We state nothing which is not founded on evidence of the clearest kind, and we shall be glad if our statements can be met in a precisely similar manner.

We observe that Mr William Ewart Gladstone, in an address delivered at the late meeting of the Fettercairn Farmers' Club, has taken a different line of argument; and if his views should prove to be correct, we must necessarily admit that the British agriculturist has no ground for complaint at all. We are, it seems, making a vast deal of noise without anything to justify it. We are clamouring about an imaginary evil, when we ought to be deeply grateful for natural benefits vouchsafed to us. So thinks Mr Gladstone, or at least so he speaks; and as his undeniable talents, and the high official position which he formerly occupied, entitle him to an attentive hearing, we shall briefly recapitulate his views. These are not new, for, if we recollect right, they were enunciated so early as last spring by the Hon. Sydney Herbert, a gentleman belonging to the same political section as Mr Gladstone, and they were then triumphantly refuted by Mr John Ellman, in his letter addressed to the Duke of Bedford. Since that time, however, another harvest has intervened, and Mr Gladstone now takes up the argument of his friend under better auspices, and with a greater show of plausibility.

Foreign competition, according to Mr Gladstone, is not the cause of low prices. "This is not," says he, "the first time that we have had difficulties. We have had many periods when low prices prevailed. Certainly, at present, prices are extremely low; but, in many parts of the country, there is a sort of compensation for these low prices arising from great abundance--the result of improved processes of growing the crop, and, of consequence, an improved yield. With regard to the cause of declining prices, I cannot adopt the line of argument of those who look only to importations as the chief cause. I do not pretend to speak so accurately of Scotland, but, as to England, _the wheat crop this year was the largest ever known_. Upon one single acre of land, of average quality, no less than sixty-eight bushels of wheat have been taken from the crop of this year. I must also point out the fact to you, that, although the crop is the largest, the prices are by no means the lowest we have seen--for instance, in the year 1835, when the sliding-scale was in full operation, we had wheat at 35s. per quarter, _and this not only for a short time, but for the whole year_. If it be true, therefore, that, at the present time, we have prices 5s. per quarter higher than they were in 1835, with a corn-law prohibitory till wheat rose to 70s. per quarter, then I cannot see that we have any such great cause for alarm as many imagine."

The first remark that we shall make with reference to this statement, is, that it is _utterly incorrect_. We do not know from what source Mr Gladstone ordinarily draws his figures, but if any one will consult the official tables of returns for the year 1835, he will find that the average of wheat was 39s. 4d., and not 35s., as Mr Gladstone has unwarrantably asserted. We have gone over the weekly averages for the whole of that year, and we find that wheat was _never once quoted_ so low as 35s. In a matter of this kind, accuracy is a cardinal virtue, and we cannot allow such a statement as this to pass unnoticed. The following are _the lowest_ weekly and aggregate averages for the whole year, taken from the official tables, and we have purposely selected these in order that Mr Gladstone may have the full benefit of the nearest approximation to his figures.

LOWEST WEEKLY AND AGGREGATE AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR 1835.

1835. Weekly Aggregate
average. average.
_s._ _d._ _s._ _d._
January, 40 1 40 7
February, 40 4 40 10
March, 39 8 40 0
April, 39 3 39 1
May, 38 6 38 11
June, 39 8 39 5
July, 40 5 40 1
August, 40 4 42 5
September, 37 7 39 2
October, 36 11 37 3
November, 36 7 36 9
December, 36 0 36 8