Chapter XVIII: Section III: Examination Into the Capabilities of the Enemy

While the commander realizes that the Fundamental Military Principle (page 41) governs the enemy's problem no less than his own, he has to accept more of hypothesis and conjecture (the so-called "fog of war") in applying the principle to the enemy's situation. The method of reflective thinking utilized (Section II) for the commander's own problem calls for certain further safeguards in application to the enemy capabilities, since they are of course usually not so well known to the commander as are his own.

Capabilities, in the meaning applicable herein, indicate actions which the force concerned, unless forestalled or prevented from taking such actions, has the capacity to carry out. Such potentialities of the enemy are of course among the vital factors to be considered in estimating the situation. In his estimate, however, the commander's interest is not confined to what the enemy will probably do; probabilities are subject to change, and do not, therefore, cover the whole field of capabilities. The commander is not exclusively interested in what the enemy may intend to do, or even in what the enemy may be known, at the time, to intend to do; such intentions are also subject to change. The commander is interested in everything that the enemy can do which may materially influence the commander's own courses of action.

In reaching a conclusion as to enemy capabilities, the commander makes an estimate from the enemy's viewpoint and considers that the enemy commander, faced with the counterpart of his own situation, is endeavoring to attain objectives in furtherance of his own mission. Each commander is endeavoring to create for himself a favorable military situation, and to prevent his opponent from succeeding in the same intent. The physical objectives for each may be the other's armed forces; certain positions, sea areas, harbors, or territory may also be likely physical objectives.

In such a parallel building up of plans, it is possible that the opposing forces may not come, at least for a time, into actual conflict. More especially in the initial stages, the respective plans may lead to operations in different parts of the theater. Again, the geographical direction of search may cause the forces to miss contact. Moreover, unless one commander definitely makes provision to seek out and engage, the two forces, each on the defensive, may find themselves "shaking fists" at each other across an ocean area.

Notwithstanding this possibility, however, a conclusion, on an insufficient basis, that the enemy will or will not seek him out and engage him, or that the enemy will or will not do anything else, may be fraught with the most serious consequences for the commander. Accordingly, in estimating the enemy's situation, he puts himself in the enemy's position, while subordinating his own hopes and desires. He credits the enemy with the possession of good judgment and of the resolution and ability to apply with skill the fundamentals of effective warfare, subject, naturally, to the justified conclusions which the commander has drawn (Section I-B) on the basis of the available factual data as to relative fighting strength.

A. Survey of the Enemy's Problem.

This portion of the commander's estimate pertains, of course, to the existing situation as viewed by the enemy. This fact, alone, may inject into the problem certain factors which differ from those applicable with respect to the commander's view of his own problem, as determined to this point.

(1) Summary of the Enemy's Situation.

Frequently it may happen that the enemy does not have certain significant information. The fact of such lack of information may have been established by the conclusions drawn as to relative fighting strength (Section I-B). If this be the case, notation of the fact is made at this point in the commander's estimate of the enemy's situation. If doubt exists as to the extent and accuracy of the enemy's information, it will be desirable to credit the enemy with any knowledge which it would be dangerous for the commander to conclude was not available to his opponent.

In summarizing the enemy's situation, the commander may brief the procedure by indicating those significant features of his own situation, as summarized in Section I-A and as particularized in