Chapter XXVI

_If_ October _and_ November _be Snow and Frost, then_ January _and_ February _are like to be_ open _and mild_.

AS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we need not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with my former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to study Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon Experiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the Truth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by the Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what we behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with the Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order to explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows that not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a constant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of the Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living Creatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of Rats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River _Nile_, by the Heat of the Sun in _Egypt_, which might very well pass for Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the like Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in which we behold Thousands of living Creatures.

AN _Italian_ Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a simple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a glass Vessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it putrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how careful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment was made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in putrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun can no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By the same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out a Multitude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for granted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account for them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom, and encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and foolish Notions.

TO apply this to the Subject of which we are treating. It is certainly a curious and a useful Thing to understand the Nature of the Weather, and to know how the Changes that happen in it come to pass. The Business is to find out the true Way of coming at this kind of Knowledge, and upon the Principles that I have advanced, it is very evident that the, only certain Way of coming at it is by Observation. This is a slow but a sure Method of arriving at Truth, and the Specimen here given us, of _one_ Man's Observations, is enough to convince us that a little Diligence and Application would soon go a great Way towards forming a Body of such Observations as might enable us to understand the Weather thoroughly, and to predict its Changes and Alterations with a great Degree of Certainty. If we will not take this Pains, we must content ourselves with what hath been already discovered, or if our Conditions of Life exclude us from the Opportunities of making such Observations, it is certainly a right Thing to help ourselves by inquiring into, and reasoning upon such Observations as other People have made and to facilitate this as far as possible, I have taken the Pains to write this Commentary upon our Shepherd's Rules; which I hope will render them more useful, or at least secure them that Regard which they deserve.

THERE remains therefore nothing more for me to do in order to recommend these Observations, but to say somewhat with Respect to the Utility of the Alterations of the Weather in general, and in particular; in order to satisfy the Reader that there is nothing of Chance or Accident in such Alterations, but that they are governed in every Respect by the same unerring Wisdom, that at first framed and constantly preserves the Universe. All Weathers are at sometimes reasonable, which shews that they are good in themselves, and only accidentally evil. We ought not to measure Things of a general Nature, by particular Rules. If by the Direction of Providence the Succession of Seasons be such, as that they turn to the good of Mankind in the whole; it is no Objection to, or Diminution of Providence that this Succession of Seasons should at different Times be injurious to certain Countries, because this may likewise be accounted for.

AS to Particulars we will begin with the Air, which is composed of Exhalations of all earthly Bodies, as well solid as fluid, as also of Fire, whether of the Sun or the Stars, or of earthly Bodies burnt, or of Fire breaking out from the Entrails of the Earth, and ascending, and though it be thus compounded, and hath swimming in it Multitudes of other Things, yet we find that it is perfectly wholesome, is the Spring of Motion, and of Life to Men, and all other Animals; so that though we cannot account for, and perhaps have not a Power of comprehending how such a mixed Body can be rendered salutary: yet since it is certain, that so it is, we have no Right to complain either of the evil Consequences that sometimes attend the Exhalations with which it is filled, or the Accidents that flow from the frequent Alterations that happen therein, because these have a visible Tendency to the general good, and are apparently necessary to the Preservation of the Universe, so that before we can have any Title to find fault, we must first shew that we are capable of understanding them in their full Extent, and as _this_ is impossible, it follows _that_ must be unreasonable.

BUT this appears still the more clearly, when it is considered, that all such Alterations may be shewn even from the Light of Reason to be generally useful, notwithstanding they sometimes appear troublesome and noxious. For Instance, such quick Streams of Air in Motion as we call Winds, though they sometimes swell into Storms and Tempests, yet are they of great Benefit to Mankind, by purging the Air, and many other Conveniences. It is a Proverb at _Vienna, that if_ Austria_ be not windy it is sickly_; and this Saying is no less true in other Countries, for by consulting the History of the last great Plague that raged here in 1666, it will be found that there was in a Manner a dead Calm during the Time of the Sickness, and it is known in _Egypt_, where they have Plagues annually, that the Change of the Wind delivers them from that Evil. Add to this the great Use of Winds in Navigation, and reflect on the Benefits that accrue there from, and we shall see no Cause whatever to doubt that this Motion of the Air is a very wise Contrivance.

THE Condensation of Vapours, which is the Cause of Rain, is another great Benefit to the World, in as much as this is very probably supposed to be the Source of Fountains, Rivers, Lakes, and other Magazines of fresh Water, without which the Earth would be uninhabitable, and to which in a very great Measure its Fertility is owing. We ought likewise to remember that though this be in itself so clear, and at the same Time so certain, yet there are Countries in the World where it very seldom rains, as in _Egypt_, and others where it hardly ever rains, as in _Peru_; so that we see there is no raising general Doctrines upon this Subject, which ought to make us the more tender in disputing the Will of Providence, or repining when it happens to cross our own.

THE Uses of Snow are as great though less apparent, of which I shall mention but three. The first is its preserving Herbs and Grass in the Winter against the Severity of Frost; secondly, its supplying Water to Brooks and Rivers; and lastly, its furnishing the Earth with vast Quantities of Nitre, and thereby conducing greatly to its Fertility, and perhaps the same thing may be said of Frost, hard Winters being often succeeded by luxuriant Summers, and thus we find that what in Appearance causes Scarcity, may in Reality produce Plenty.

LASTLY, even Thunder, however terrible in its Appearance, and sometimes fatal in its Effects, is nevertheless very useful and beneficial upon the whole, for this likewise purifies the Air from sulphureous and oily Exhalations, and the Rains that fall with it fertilize the Earth exceedingly. It also moderates the Heat as Experience teaches us, for as it is always gloomy and sultry before Thunder, so it is afterwards generally cool and pleasant. These Remarks, though very short, may give the Reader an Opportunity of extending his Observations throughout all the Variations of Weather, and enable him to discern how useful and instructive a thing the Study of its Alterations may be, and how probable it is, that by proper Care and Attention, we may arrive at a much more useful, as well as a much more certain Knowledge in regard to the Weather, than hitherto has been attained.

FINIS.