Chapter XIII: Appendix: Suggestions Concerning the Tables in the Appendix (7)

Horse prices, draft, at Omaha and Chicago, 163

Lard prices at Chicago, 160

Live stock movements, yearly, Bureau of Markets, 190

Lumber prices, 214

Middlings at Kansas City, 209

Middlings at Minneapolis, 207

Milk prices in Elgin-Chicago district, 162

Mill-feed price averages, 205

Oats prices in Illinois, 196

Oats prices in Iowa, 194

Oats prices, monthly, at Chicago, 121–122

Oats receipts, monthly, at Chicago, 177

Packers’ prices of ham and bacon, 204

Petroleum, crude, prices, 213

Pig iron prices, 211

Potato prices on the farm, 197

Pork exports, 191

Prices, daily ten-year averages, at Chicago, 126–133

Retail prices of bacon, 200

Retail prices of butter, 202

Retail prices of corn meal, 201

Retail prices of eggs, 202

Retail prices of flour, 201

Retail prices of ham, 200

Retail prices of lard, 201

Retail prices of milk, 202

Retail prices of pork chops, 200

Retail prices of potatoes, 203

Retail prices of rib roasts, 199

Retail prices of round steak, 199

Retail prices of sirloin steak, 199

Sheep prices, average of native lambs, at Chicago, 155

Sheep prices, average of native sheep, at Chicago, 156

Sheep prices, average of western lambs, at Chicago, 157

Sheep prices, average of western sheep, at Chicago, 158

Sheep prices, average of yearlings, at Chicago, 154

Sheep receipts, monthly, at Chicago, 175

Sheep receipts, monthly, at six markets, 174

Sheep, shipments of stockers and feeders from Omaha, 187–188

Sheep weights at Chicago, 183

Short-rib sides, prices at Chicago, 159

Shorts, prices at Kansas City, 209

Wages on city and farm, 210

Wheat exports, 192

Wheat prices at Chicago, 123–124

Wheat prices in Argentina, 190

Wool prices in Illinois, 197

Wool prices in Iowa, 195

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Footnote 1:

It is suggested that those who are especially interested in a study of
speculative markets read “Braces’ Organized Speculation,” or “Emery’s
Speculation on the Stock and Produce Exchanges of the United States.”

Footnote 2:

The following defense of the functions of the Board of Trade was
compiled by Mr. John R. Mauff, the secretary: “The Chicago Board of
Trade has exclusive characteristics, indispensable to the welfare of
the producer and consumer. It offers the producer a constant and
infallible fluctuating market, determined and regulated by the
inexorable law of supply and demand. It creates, thru the trading of
its large membership, representing the various branches of
agricultural and industrial activity, continuous quotations that are
collected and distributed generally and without cost to the public.
There is thus presented the opportunity for the producer to determine
at any time the exact value of his products. A further advantage is
that he can dispose of these products at any time by making a future
delivery ‘hedging’ contract to suit his inclination, regardless of bad
roads or transportation problems. Another benefit is the large and
daily open competitive market in which to display his wares before a
multitude of buyers simultaneously, obviating the otherwise impossible
task of communicating with this diversity of demands by personal
effort. Protected at all times by a set of rules and regulations
holding its members to a strict accountability for their proper
conduct as commission merchants; mandatory for suspension or expulsion
for any violation of the ethics of trade. Having at their disposal a
variety of ability only to be found in a large membership, insuring in
this way proper handling and attention because a strenuous effort is
always masterful and resourceful where competition is rife.
Dissemination of statistics relating to agriculture; the benefits of
terminal elevators equipped with modern apparatus for the proper care
of sample grades. For consumers, car shortage and other transportation
difficulties productive of business stagnation overcome by the
opportunity to purchase for future delivery the raw material where
‘short’ sales of product call for protection. Consummation of
contracts possible at all times thru the machinery of a market for
future delivery at continuous prices, reliable to the fluctuations of
a small fraction—one-eighth of one cent per bushel. In conclusion, and
by no means least, the facilities offered for thus establishing value
in every part of the United States, with no inequality because of
geographical location, and so a death knell to the exploiters of
producers and consumers because of this knowledge widely disseminated
and so easy of understanding.”

Footnote 3:

The skew curves of supply and demand, as derived by H. L. Moore, in
his book on “Economic Cycles,” furnish mathematical proof of this
statement so far as corn and oats are concerned.

Footnote 4:

The chart printed in connection with the chapter, “Pork Exports, the
Barometer of Corn Belt Prosperity,” gives forty-four years of profit
and loss areas per acre of corn in the twelve north central states,
the method used being the ratio method as described in the above.

Footnote 5:

It may be argued that the price of hogs determines the price of corn,
and that the price of corn determines the price of land. This to a
large extent may be true, and yet not interfere with the usefulness of
the ratio method for purposes of price judging.

Footnote 6:

The link relative method of finding the normal seasonal variation, as
used by Warren M. Persons, in the January, 1919, Review of Economic
Statistics, is far more difficult than the method here used, and for
our purposes is not worth while.

Footnote 7:

Warren M. Persons, in a footnote on page 35 of the January, 1919,
Review of Economic Statistics, expresses the method of ascertaining
percentage departure from the secular trend in mathematical symbols as
follows: “Let the original series beginning with January be X_{1},
X_{2}, X_{3}, ... X_{n}, the ordinates of secular trend be O_{1},
O_{2}, O_{3}, ... O_{n}, and the adjusted indices of seasonal
variation for twelve months be S_{1}, S_{2}, S_{3}, ... S_{12} per
cent, respectively. Then the items for secular trend and seasonal
variation are:

X_{1} − S_{1}O_{1}/O_{1}, X_{2} − S_{2}O_{2}/O_{2}, X_{3} −
S_{3}O_{3}/O_{3}, ... X_{3} − S_{1}O_{13}/O_{13} etc.”

Footnote 8:

These figures are based on seasonal correction factors as follows:
January, 96; February, 100; March, 105; April, 104; May, 101; June,
101; July, 103; August, 101; September, 103; October, 100; November,
94; December, 92. These factors are practically the same as those used
on page 84.

Footnote 9:

Since the chapter, “Limitations of the Mathematical Method,” was
written, it has been discovered that hog receipts at eleven markets
are a more accurate indicator of hog prices than receipts at Chicago,
and that prices of Connelsville coke are a better indicator of the
demand for hogs than bank clearings outside New York City. The
multiple coefficient of correlation between hog prices on the one hand
and Chicago hog receipts and bank clearings outside New York City on
the other hand is .65, whereas between hog prices and hog receipts at
eleven markets and coke prices the multiple coefficient of correlation
is .70.

Footnote 10:

This is the average as given in the Drovers’ Journal Year Books. It
evidently is a weighted average based on varying receipts.

Footnote 11:

This is a simple average and not strictly comparable with the Chicago
averages, which are weighted on the basis of varying receipts.

Footnote 12:

Interpolated from Kansas City market, on account of foot-and-mouth
disease closing Chicago market.

Footnote 13:

Omaha prices, 1903 to 1907, inclusive; Chicago prices after 1907.

Footnote 14:

Prices for both wheat and corn are taken from the Year Books of the
Rosario Board of Trade. Rosario is the Chicago of Argentina. The
Argentine unit of weight, the quintal, is taken as equivalent to 3.67
bushels of wheat and 3.936 bushels of corn. The Argentine dollar is
taken as equivalent to 42.6 cents. After July of 1918, prices are
taken from the International Institute of Agriculture.

Footnote 15:

Flour exports converted into wheat at the rate of four and one-half
bushels of wheat to a barrel.

Footnote 16:

These figures, previous to 1917, were taken from charts furnished by
Dr. L. D. H. Weld, of Swift Company. Since 1917, the source has been
the Daily Trade Bulletin of Howard Bartels. The top price for the
month is used in every case.

Footnote 17:

These figures, previous to 1917, were taken from charts furnished by
Dr. L. D. H. Weld, of Swift Company. Since 1917, the source has been
the Daily Trade Bulletin of Howard Bartels. The top price for the
month is used in every case.

Footnote 18:

The Milwaukee prices were compiled by Professor F. A. Pearson, of the
University of Illinois, from the reports of the Western Feed Bureau.

Footnote 19:

From 1860 to 1890, wages are based on the investigation made by the
Department of Labor for the senate committee investigating prices and
wages, and reported in Senate Document 1394. Wages from 1890 to 1907
are based on Bulletin 77 of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and from
1907 to 1913 on unpublished data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
prepared for the San Francisco Exposition. Figures since 1913 are
estimated from reports of manufacturing establishments in New York
state, reports of wages paid by the United States Steel Corporation,
and reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics as to wages existing in
cotton goods, men’s clothing, lumber, and furniture industries. It is
believed that the figures since 1913 are roughly accurate, but that
they may have to be revised to make them comparable with the preceding
series. Farm-hand wages are derived from the December, 1919, Monthly
Crop Reporter of the Bureau of Crop Estimates.

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TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES

● Typos fixed; non-standard spelling and dialect retained. ● Enclosed italics font in _underscores_. ● Enclosed blackletter font in =equals=.