Chapter XXI: Appendix: II

COMPARISON OF RAILWAY RECEIPTS FROM MERCHANDISE AND MINERAL TRAFFIC.

It may be useful to enquire how far it is true that the heavy trades of coal and iron, or the general trade of the country, are being “slowly, but surely killed by high rates and tolls,” or otherwise. That trade in all countries is subject to fluctuation is undoubted, and the causes are many and various. The conveyance of minerals and goods upon the railways of the United Kingdom is one test. Let us take periods of three years:--

RAILWAY RECEIPTS IN UNITED KINGDOM.
Average per Year.
Years. For minerals. General merchandise.

1875 to 1877 £13,560,096 £18,922,238
1878 ” 1880 13,891,326 19,181,927
1881 ” 1883 15,742,615 20,801,075
{ 2 years }
1884 & 1885{ of } 15,387,443 20,631,066
{depression}

According to the test of railway receipts for conveyance of minerals and goods, the killing process seems very slow indeed, and it is not even sure, because in 1885 the railway receipts for minerals were in some instances reduced. The average receipts for minerals were about 2¼ per cent. less on the average of the past two years as compared with those of the previous three years. In the case of goods traffic this percentage was only 0·82 per cent. But, as against the above average receipts for 1884 and 1885, let us place the average for the preceding nine years. For minerals, £14,398,012; for goods, £19,635,080, which shows an increased receipt on the average of the past two years--on minerals of £989,431; on goods of £995,986. Certainly these results are the reverse of decay in traffic or trade.

Another and better test is the tonnage of minerals and goods conveyed on the railways of the United Kingdom for the like period.

Years. Minerals. Goods.
Tons. Tons.
1875 to 1877, average 141,910,505 64,094,565
1878 ” 1880 ” 152,528,097 65,548,450
1881 ” 1883 ” 182,310,041 74,204,559
1884 ” 1885 ” 183,696,151 74,612,020

This test contradicts the theory of decaying trade in an unmistakable manner, but it may be urged that these averages are insufficient to show the great depression in 1885. The fact is, that in 1885 there was a larger tonnage of minerals conveyed than in any year, with the exception of 1883, and a larger tonnage of goods than in any year except 1882, 1883 and 1884.

But a third test, that of production, may be applied. In 1884, the quantity of coal raised in the United Kingdom

was 160,758,000 tons.
and in 1885 159,351,000 ”
-----------------
Decrease 1,407,000 tons.
or about ·88 per cent.
In 1884 the tonnage of iron ore raised was 16,138,000 tons,
And Iron Ore imported 2,730,800 ”
-----------------
18,868,800 tons.

In 1885, 15,418,000 tons of Iron Ore were raised
Add 2,822,600 ” imported.
----------
18,240,600 ”
being a decrease of 628,200 tons, or a decrease of 3·33 per cent.
In 1883, the quantity of pig iron produced in Great
Britain was 8,529,000 tons.
” 1884 7,812,000 ”
” 1885 7,415,000 ”

The fact is, that 1883 was an exceptional year. The tonnage of minerals conveyed by railway in 1883 was 8,075,101 tons greater than in 1882, 13,451,612 tons greater than in 1881, and 23,815,308 tons greater than in 1880.

And in like manner the tonnage of general merchandise conveyed in 1883 was 2,192,034 tons in excess of 1882, 5,886,356 tons in excess of 1881, and 7,262,031 tons in excess of the tonnage of 1880.

The production of pig iron is not a real test, inasmuch as large stocks accumulate at certain periods, and the ratio of production is lessened in order to reduce the quantity in stock.

No doubt depression of trade may arise from lower prices. The years 1876 and 1877 were probably those during which the highest possible prices ruled for coal, iron, &c. What were the quantities conveyed by railway?

Minerals. Merchandise.
Tons. Tons.
In 1875 137,087,713 62,981,938
” 1876 141,779,393 64,185,671
” 1877 146,864,410 65,116,085
” 1880 165,670,304 69,635,325
” 1883 189,485,612 76,897,356
” 1885 183,776,745 73,511,709

If lower prices now rule, it is clear there is a very much larger volume of trade now than in the years of high prices. That there has been depression in some branches of the trade of the country may be a fact, but it is only natural to overrate and overstate its reality and importance, and to cast blame upon the wrong parties.