Chapter XI (1)

THE FUTURE OF CHINA—MAINTENANCE OR PARTITION OF THE CELESTIAL EMPIRE?

Necessity of proceeding slowly with the Reform movement in China, if
the overthrow of the Empire is to be averted—Weakness of the
Government at Peking—The Emperor and the Reformer, Kang-Yu-Wei—The
Empress Dowager and Li Hung-chang—Palace revolution in September,
1898—Enormous obstacles in the way of the Celestial Empire
reforming itself—Reasons why it cannot follow the example of Japan
in 1868—The possibility of partition—The interests of Great
Britain, the United States, and Japan, partizans of the ‘open
door’ policy, and of Germany, Russia, and France—The dangers
incurred by partition—Difficulties of effecting it pacifically,
and also for Europeans to govern the hundreds of millions of
Chinese—The anarchy that might result—Services which might be
rendered to progress by the Chinese Government in preventing too
rapid a transition—Possibility of converting the Chinese to
material progress.

‘Every time that the bones of China are rattled—and they have never been more vigorously than at present’—said a technical English paper, ‘an increase of commerce follows.’ Nothing can be truer; but, at the same time, it might be prudent not to shake the old skeleton too violently, too often, or too long, if we do not wish to see it tumble to pieces. China is a sort of amorphous State whose different parts are joined together by the very weakest ties, concerning which we know little or nothing, and whose main force consists in tradition and in the existence of a governing class of literati, recruited throughout the Empire, even among the very people. On the other hand, germs of serious disaffection do exist; the actual Dynasty is a foreign one, which, at the beginning of the century, the terrible Taiping Rebellion—only suppressed with the assistance of Europeans—nearly ruined, and the descendants of the old national Ming Dynasty are still living. The accession to the throne of the present Emperor was irregular, it seems, according to Chinese procedure, and the country is honeycombed by secret societies, whose object is the overthrow of the existing state of affairs. The mass of the people are totally indifferent to politics, and very rarely exhibit hostility to foreigners, if the latter behave with circumspection, unless, indeed, they are urged on by fanatics or malcontents, when, unfortunately, they are easily roused. In the principal towns of every prefecture and sub-prefecture there exists a heterogeneous mass of soured and fanatical literati, who pursue the humblest trades in order to keep themselves from starvation, who are intimately mixed up with the people, by whom they are treated with great respect, and who will obey their commands to overthrow the Europeans and their innovations.

The Government of Peking is too thoroughly convinced of its external weakness to openly resist any demand imposed upon it by the Powers, but if it be too hardly pressed, and forced to introduce or allow the premature introduction of all sorts of innovations, and in too many places at once, it may run the risk of exciting against it the literati, who regard, and not without reason, any extension of European influence as a menace to their privileges. Such action might easily lead to active opposition to all reform, especially in the central and southern provinces, more backward than those of the north, and, if leaders of the movement can be discovered, lead to the complete disorganization of the Celestial Empire. Trouble has already occurred in Sze-chuan, as well as further in the lower valley of the Yang-tsze. A rather serious insurrection broke out in 1898 in the Kwang-si and Kwang-tung, but without any result. We know that local troubles in so badly governed a country as China of a necessity must become chronic, but in many cases the news concerning them reaches Europe considerably embellished and exaggerated.

It is certain that the elements of disorder are just now greatly excited. Even at Peking rival factions are disputing for power; the events which occurred there in September, 1898, are little, and possibly never will be completely, known, and it would be impossible to relate with any approach to truth the tragedies and comedies that are constantly being enacted within the walls of the Forbidden City.

The Emperor Kuang-Su, a young man of twenty-five, with a sickly body, and, it is said, a weak mind, had been completely won over to the Reform movement by a literate of the new school, named Kang-Yu-Wei, who hailed from Canton. His Celestial Majesty, with all the zeal of a neophyte, was induced during the summer to issue a distinctly revolutionary edict. It was said that he went so far as to presume to wear a European costume, and that he even intended going personally to Japan to observe there for himself the transformation which had been effected in the last thirty years. The Reform party undoubtedly had entertained Japanese as well as English sympathies, and its chief, Kang-Yu-Wei, passed his last night at Peking in the Japanese Legation. Marquis Ito, it is said, discouraged the precipitation with which it was intended to carry out in a few weeks reforms that had taken more than a quarter of a century to accomplish in Japan.

Such an attempt had no chance of success, for it not only opposed many prejudices and interests, but was opposed by all the Manchu functionaries, by Li Hung-chang, who had been recently disgraced, and by the Empress Dowager. His Celestial Majesty pretended to arrest this last-named personage, who is his aunt, and not his mother; but the astute Princess defeated his object. The great majority of the mandarins being hostile to the movement, she soon possessed herself of the necessary tools for her purpose. The Emperor was in his turn imprisoned in his palace, and forced to apologize and sign an edict placing the reins of Government entirely in the hands of the Dowager. The immediate consequence of this act was that all the mandarins of the old school, among them Li Hung-chang, returned forthwith to power; Kang-Yu-Wei took flight on board an English vessel, and most of his partizans were either beheaded or sent into exile, and very soon all trace of their work was effaced.

From this imprudent attempt at reform we may derive a few useful lessons. In the first place it showed the instability of the Peking Government, and also the existence, but at the same time the impotence, of the Reform party among the literati; and in the second it accentuated that dangerous factor in the politics of the Far East, the inflexible antagonism existing between England and Russia. The Empress Tze-Hsi is undoubtedly a very clever woman; she first governed the Empire in the capacity of Regent, but since 1887 she has, with the assistance of Li Hung-chang, who is said to have been a former lover, done so in the name of her nephew, absolutely refusing to abdicate. Her rule has been undoubtedly pernicious to China, for it has invariably been reactionary. As an instance in point, an important Viceroy has been recently reprimanded for attempting to reorganize on the European system the troops in the provinces which he administered. The Tsung-li-Yamen has likewise in a very short time contrived to strengthen the party opposed to innovation, and all sorts of restrictions have been placed in the way of the exploitation of the mines. For all this, be it bad or good, the Government of Tze-Hsi and of Li Hung-chang is nevertheless a Government; but both the Empress and her Minister are aged, and one may naturally ask what will occur when they are no longer of this world.

The Reform party, which seems to have the sympathy of a few high functionaries, does not apparently include many of the mandarin class; the unsuccessful literati, who struggle for existence in the towns of the interior, and who are in immediate contact with the people, apparently remain outside of all notion of progress, being absolutely convinced of the immense superiority of the Chinese over the barbarians. It is therefore very difficult to imagine how a handful of innovators can ever be able to impose their ideas against so much prejudice. A revolution, such as occurred in Japan in 1868, which rushed that Empire into the ways of reform, stands no chance of being effected in China, and even if it were, it would only receive just such another rebuff as happened in 1898, or else lead to anarchy and the dismemberment of the Empire.

The situation in China to-day is essentially different from that of Japan thirty years ago. In the first place the Chinese civilization which gave way in Japan to European was not of domestic growth, but essentially an imported article of extreme antiquity, which never succeeded in stultifying the Japanese people as it has done the Chinese; what is more, ancestors and classics were never held by the Japanese in the same veneration as is bestowed upon them by the Chinese. Far above the traditions of Confucius and of the Wise Men of old stood the Mikado of divine descent and the spirit of national independence. The first object of the Japanese Revolution in 1868 was to restore the Emperor to the plenitude of his power, a result attained by the union of the principal clans, as we have already explained. Although it resulted in the suppression of feudalism and the introduction of European civilization, it was originally not presented in this form, and if the entire nation eventually accepted these innovations, it was because they had been consecrated by the divine Emperor, and, moreover, were approved of by a powerful army which had always been friendly to progress and prompt to resist reaction.

Those advantages that so greatly favoured the Japanese reformers are non-existent in China. There is no military party in Peking friendly to Reform or eager to assist the reformers in seizing supreme power at the right moment and helping them to retain it. The initiative, therefore, cannot come from either the capital or the provinces. Instead of the Japanese daimios, or hereditary chieftains, surrounded by innumerable and faithful vassals, we have in China viceroys who are invariably strangers in the provinces they administer, and are spied upon by Tatar marshals having at their disposal by way of an army a horde of ill-disciplined ragamuffins, whom, even if an attempt were made to transform them into genuine soldiers, a task which would require many years to effect, the Court at Peking, being against the scheme, would soon disband. No martial spirit or feeling of patriotism exists in China to induce the governing classes to give up their privileges, even though it were for the benefit of the country. The tenacious attachment of the Chinese to their very ancient but stationary civilization is their greatest impediment to progress, especially as love of country is a mere empty sound to the vast majority of Chinamen.

Another and very important difference between China to-day and Japan in 1868 is that thirty years ago Europe permitted the Island Empire to accomplish its own revolution without interference, whereas to-day the Powers would assuredly prevent any attempt at a too sudden evolution in the Government of the Celestial Empire, which would only plunge the country into a deplorable condition of turmoil. Even now the Dowager Empress’s party is known as the Russian, and that of Kang-Yu-Wei as the Anglo-Japanese. Possibly this may be an exaggerated view of the case, and that neither party is in the service of any particular Power; but the incorruptibility of Li Hung-chang must be taken with a grain of salt. It is, however, certain that the Legations watch with a jealous eye the intrigues of the various factions, and that the disgrace of Li Hung-chang is looked upon as a victory for England, and each return to power of the Viceroy of Pe-chi-li as a Russian success. No worse sign could possibly exist for a State than the perpetual interference of foreign Powers in its affairs.

‘Are we about to witness the dismemberment of China?’ is a question people are constantly asking themselves. No one in particular wishes for it, since the division of such an inheritance would be disputed by at least five or six claimants, who will only settle their differences at the sword’s point. For the past twenty-five years Europe has trembled at the bare thought of war, and we must not be surprised if she dreads the mere mention of the disruption of China, which would be even more dreadful, since it means universal war, in which the United States, Great Britain, and Japan, as well as the Continental Powers, would each take a share. Even if the matter were settled amicably, what country would care to govern eighty or a hundred millions of Chinamen? Some people say that it could easily be settled by not attempting to govern them at all, in other words, to let things go their way; but no European Power would, or could, do otherwise than rule them methodically, according to our modern ideas of government. To-day, if a band of brigands exists in any obscure corner of China, nobody troubles about it, but once that corner belongs to a European Power, the irresistible desire of attempting to establish order would assuredly lead to an insurrection. The introduction of European methods is certain to upset many of the old customs and traditions to which the Chinese hold with almost pathetic tenacity. It requires an amazing tact to govern the Chinese, a fact made daily manifest in Hong-Kong, and illustrated by the recent serious outbreak in the French concession at Shanghai, where a disturbance took place over the removal of a time-honoured sanctuary to make way for a public road. The difficulties encountered by Europeans in every country imbued with Chinese ideas—those of the English in Burmah, the French in Tongking, and the Japanese at Formosa—prove, if proof were needed, how great is the resisting power and the risks any European nation would have to encounter which attempted to govern even a fragment of the vast Chinese Empire.

On the other hand, each Power, whilst dreading the consequences of a partition, is equally unwilling to behold a rival carry off the lion’s share. It is, therefore, with an eye to an eventual partition that each nation endeavours to obtain a privileged position in certain regions, and to possess itself of spheres of interest by forcing China to make the singular promise never to cede any portion of territory in certain defined provinces to any nation but to the one which obtains the promise. But this sort of promise is fraught with difficulties, and a source of eventual hostilities between nations having pretensions upon the same region, just as it is between the partizans of ‘spheres of interest’ and those of the ‘open door.’

In order to understand the policy of the various Powers in China, in which they see a very important field for exploitation, we must first consider their commercial interests in the Celestial Empire. The British Empire incontestably occupies first place in the foreign commerce of China, which in 1897 stood at 366,000,000 hai-kwan taels, or £54,900,000 (1 tael = 3s.). Of this 236,934,000 taels, or £35,540,100, two-thirds of the whole, belongs, according to the Imperial Chinese Customs Report, to Great Britain. Here, however, we must not be misled, for if we subdivide this sum, we shall see that about £5,500,000 alone belong to England, £5,000,000 to her colonies other than Hong-Kong, through which the remainder, that is to say, about £23,000,000 worth of goods, passes, Hong-Kong being merely a point of transit. Goods imported from Germany, America and Russia into China, passing through this island port, or being exported thence to the four corners of the globe, are put down to England. Then, again, a very important trade is carried on between the North and the South of China through Hong-Kong, and thus it comes to pass that Great Britain gets the credit for commerce which does not really belong to her. If Hong-Kong possessed proper Custom-house statistics, it would be easy to account for the origin and destination of the merchandise which passes through this port; but such statistics do not exist. Under these circumstances, we must turn either to those of the various countries of Europe and America, or to the detailed statistics of the Chinese Customs, which frequently rectify the total amounts, whereby we learn that £692,700 worth of Russian petroleum is imported, whereas the total imports from Russia by sea are only estimated at £485,100. The difference must, therefore, be accounted for as having passed through Hong-Kong. A comparison between the Chinese Customs statistics and those of Germany, the United States, French Indo-China, and other countries, obliges us, however, to admit that three-fifths at least of the trade of Hong-Kong really belongs to the British Empire, which leaves to the latter about £27,000,000, that is, 40 to 50 per cent. of the total foreign commerce of the Celestial Empire. In the matter of imports, the English reign supreme, holding at least three-fourths in their hands, and dominating the market by the two principal articles, opium and cotton. Moreover, their flag floats over 65 per cent. of the total tonnage registered in the Chinese ports; of 636 foreign houses of business established in the open ports, 374 are English; of 11,600 foreigners, 5,000 are British subjects; and English is the language most spoken throughout the ports of the Far East. When we take all these facts into consideration, we are obliged to acknowledge that, having so many interests to defend in this part of the globe, England has a right to let her voice be heard clearly in commercial affairs. We must not be surprised, therefore, if she insists upon the ‘open door’ policy in China. The question now arises, Does she seek territory in the Celestial Empire? She has apparently sacrificed the ‘spheres of interest’ theory by exacting from China an engagement not to cede anything in the basin of the Yang-tsze, and the English Jingoes are already dreaming that Great Britain will be mistress not only from the Cape to Cairo, but from Cairo to Shanghai. ‘Are not the Arabian Coast and the Persian Gulf,’ I recently read in an English paper, ‘already ours, and morally subject to our protectorate? Once we possess the valley of the Yang-tsze, who is to prevent our constructing a rival line to the Trans-Siberian from the mouth of the Nile to that of the Blue River?’[28] Although just at present it were best not to count too much on the wisdom and coolness of the British, nevertheless, their statesmen seem to appreciate the dangers of so beautiful a dream. They, at least, understand that the peril of the British Empire lies in its enormous extent. The majority of the British would, no doubt, be satisfied if they were allowed to place their capital and their commerce on a footing of equality with that of other countries in the Celestial Empire, if the territorial encroachments of the Powers did not justify the fear of the creation of a protectionist tariff. We may, therefore, hope that Great Britain, having obtained all that she desires in the way of strategic points for the benefit of her naval forces, and also a great number of commercial concessions, will remain contented with her lot, and not dream of attacking the independence of China, but rather be inclined to help her to regain power.[29]

After England the United States do the greatest business with China. They only figure for £4,500,000 in the Chinese Customs statistics, but their own official publications give £7,840,000. Petroleum and cotton goods are the principal articles of their commerce, which is sure to be enormously increased in the future as the Middle Kingdom requires more and more machinery, which is manufactured to-day much more cheaply in America than anywhere else. The United States are represented in China by thirty-two houses of business and 1,564 citizens; their mercantile marine is, however, very insignificant, but having of late assumed a position among the world’s Powers, and being already installed in the Philippines, they are sure to increase their mercantile fleet very rapidly, and as they aspire to become one day mistress of the Pacific, they watch with a very jealous eye all that happens in the Far East. However protectionist they may be at home, they are resolute partizans of the ‘open door’ in this market, of which they justly hope to eventually acquire a large part through their enterprise. Already a coolness has occurred in their friendship with Russia, and in January, 1900, they obtained a guarantee that none of the Powers should establish differential tariffs in leased ‘spheres of interest.’

Japan takes the third rank with a rapidly increasing commerce, which in 1897 reached £5,850,000. Her spun cotton rivals that of England and India. Seven hundred Japanese are registered as residing in the different ports. The Celestial Empire has no warmer friends at the present moment than the Japanese. The Japanese papers are full of articles which compare the position of the two countries to that of Prussia and Austria after Sadowa, and preach reconciliation, and a close alliance was already spoken of with enthusiasm at the close of the War. Many Japanese statesmen are studying this question, among them the Marquis Ito, four times Prime Minister, and Prince Konoye, President of the Chamber of Peers, who travelled in China, and stayed in Peking in 1898 and 1899. According to certain signs, their overtures have not been altogether fruitless. The Government of the Empress Dowager does not seem to entertain any particular rancour against the Japanese for the sympathies which they expressed for the Reformer Kang-Yu-Wei, and undoubtedly seeks some support in order to withdraw itself from the over-exclusive domination of Russia. If this last Power is feared in Peking, it would seem that Japan is at the present time the most considered, whose counsels are best heard, and who best serves as the intermediary for progress into China. It is from Japan that China obtains instructors for her army, and that the Viceroy Chang-Chih-tung not only borrowed money, but also engineers for his foundry at Hanyang. The cementing of a formal alliance will no doubt be prevented through fear of Russia, and very probably China does not desire it very sincerely. Possibly at Peking they continue to despise the Japanese as much as they do Europeans, although they may have a preference for the former. One thing is certain, and that is, that the relations between the Governments at Peking and Tokio are better than they were before the War. Of the Western Powers, England is most preferred by the Mikado’s subjects, although even with her they are a little suspicious. A feeling of intense resentment is still expressed by the vast majority of the Japanese against Russia. A small minority, however, desire that an understanding should be arrived at with her. This party, however, also wishes for the ‘open door,’ China being the only outlet for their young and already important cotton industry.

These three nations—England, the United States, and Japan—complete the group of the whole-hearted partizans of the ‘open door.’ The British press has often expressed a desire to see an alliance effected between them, and if this were only created between England and Japan it would be very formidable in the Far East. The Japanese fleet is excellent, and whatever may be our opinion of the ability of the Mikado’s sailors, it is certain that, once united to the English fleet under the command of an English admiral, it could soon sweep the China Seas, and it would then be easy to embark an army of a hundred, even of two hundred thousand men, whom it would be difficult, even according to Russian officers, for the Tsar’s army in the Far East to resist. Perhaps Russia has pushed the Empire of the Rising Sun too much and too soon into the arms of England.

Germany, who, according to her own statistics, carries on a trade with China valued at £3,400,000, of which £2,320,000 are imports into China, and who counts 104 commercial houses instead of the 78 in 1892, and registers 870 residents in the Treaty Ports, divides her preferences between the policy of the ‘spheres of influence’ and the ‘open door.’ If she has reserved a right of preference in the public works to be undertaken in Shan-tung, she soothes the irritation of the English by making Kiao-chau a free port; but, notwithstanding the antipathy which exists at heart between the two nations and the progress of German commerce, often at the cost of British trade, and thanks to the more obliging manners and greater activity of the German merchants, a distinct amelioration has taken place since the end of 1898 in the relations between the two Governments, and Germany seems for the present to have turned her back upon the Franco-Russian group in the Far East in order to support British policy. One province alone in China is not enough for her commercial enterprise, and she fears to see protection closing the other ports.

We now come to Russia. Her total commerce with the Celestial Empire does not amount to more than about £3,000,000, half of which passes overland by way of Siberia. Petroleum as an import and tea as an export are the two great articles of Russian trade with the Celestial Empire. There are very few Russians living in China, and those who do so are mainly established in the port of Hankow. Russia’s objects in the East are almost entirely political, and it is very probable that her protective tariff will follow her territorial aggrandizement. Being already mistress of Manchuria, she officially fixed the southern limits of her sphere of influence, at the time of the affair of the Niu-chwang Railway, at the Great Wall. To the north is a vast stretch of land almost entirely desert. In all probability this limit is merely temporary, and possibly none really exists in Russian aspirations; but before declaring her policy she awaits the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway. The Empire of the Tsar, notwithstanding the 60,000 to 80,000 men already massed between the Amur, Korea, and Pe-chi-li, does not yet feel sufficiently safe to take a step forward for fear of bringing herself into conflict with England and Japan. The day the Trans-Siberian Railway is finished a step southwards may no doubt be made. The antagonism between Russia and Great Britain, both of whom aspire to be the leading Asiatic Power, will then no doubt become bitterer than ever.

The policy of France has been more often than not ostentatious, timid at heart and often vexatious in form. She has made a great fuss over a few commercial advantages obtained in the sterile provinces which border on Tongking, and she has opposed England without doing her any injury with respect to the opening of the West River. In certain affairs relating to European concessions at Shanghai and Hankow, France has unfortunately succeeded not only in vexing England, but in alarming the Germans, Americans, and Japanese by the excessive regulations which she has introduced in those territories which have fallen into her hands. It does not seem, however, that the French have contrived to obtain sufficient compensation for the enmities which they have provoked in defending, not without peril, interests which after all were not their own.

The part which France has wished to play in China has not been a strictly commercial one. French highly-finished and expensive fabrics are of no good in the Chinese market. If she only had the common-sense and enterprise to send to Tongking first-class weavers, and establish there a manufactory under French direction, with cheap native labour, she should soon be able, if she copied the cotton industries of India, to compete with Japan in the Chinese market. It is therefore the exportation of capital which ought to be her object in the Far East, in China as well as in Indo-China. Notwithstanding their activity, it is not countries like Japan and Russia, which are without capital, that can attempt to exploit the riches of China, but countries that are already advanced in civilization like Germany, the United States, and above all, France and England, who, by the introduction of the vast resources of their capital, are in a position to work the mines, railways, and other resources of the Middle Kingdom. If, instead of trying to obtain exclusive privileges in a poor region, which are of no use and only irritate other nations, France had supported them in their ‘open door’ policy, she would have gained a good deal, without losing anything from the purely commercial point of view, and thus Frenchmen might have placed themselves on a common footing with men of all nations, in the same manner that the English and the Germans contrived to come to an agreement in business transactions, notwithstanding the divergence which tends to separate them more and more, and she would then have been able to place her capital to great advantage, and thereby have added immensely to her prosperity, not only abroad but at home, as was the case under the Second Empire, when she covered Europe with railways.

France might, moreover, from the purely political point of view, have played a conciliatory part, and have thus managed to prevent the dominant influences at Peking from becoming too exclusive, which might ultimately result in a terrible conflict, and she should have worked to maintain the independence of China. Now that the Chinese are permitting Europeans to take their riches in hand by constructing their railways and exploiting their mines, it seems to us that France ought to allow her to retain a sort of communal existence, in which the civilized nations might carry on their economic activity precisely as they do in Turkey, with the difference that the Empire of the Son of Heaven is much vaster, richer, and populated by a far more industrious people than that of Sultan Abd-ul-Hamid.

This is, of course, a solution of an apparently temporary character, but which might have a chance here, as elsewhere, of lasting longer than a score of other solutions which are deemed definitive, always provided that the Powers do not exert too much pressure on the feeble Government at Peking, and especially if Russia, once the Trans-Siberian Railway is finished, does not insist upon her demands in so violent a manner as to provoke simultaneous action on the part of the Powers, and thereby bring about a partition. The destinies of the Celestial Empire are, however, in a great measure in the hands of the Tsar, who has, fortunately, already given many proofs of sagacity.

The maintenance of the Chinese Government seems for the moment preferable, even in the interests of the opening up of the country and in the introduction of our civilization in its immense territory, to the partition of China between the various European nations. We do not say this because we believe that the Chinese Government is converted to progress, for we hold that, with very few exceptions, those who direct the fortunes of the Chinese Empire are quite as fossilized in their prejudices, as firmly believe in their decrepit wisdom, as eager to prove their hatred of Western civilization, and, moreover, as corrupt, as ever they were. At the same time, they are convinced of the impossibility of China resisting the encroachments of European civilization, and as resigned as ever to yield to external pressure. Undoubtedly the era of subterfuges on the one side and of menaces on the other is by no means closed, and in spite of reforms which have been, and are still to be, obtained in the future by Europeans, a considerable part of the pecuniary advantages to be obtained from the transformation of China will remain in the hands and up the sleeves of the mandarins. But if progress is somewhat retarded by this resistance, which, after all, will only be temporary, it will be better so than that it should be introduced too suddenly and cause unnecessary trouble. Meanwhile, the Government of Peking plays an extremely useful part. Some people have not hesitated to say that if it ceased to exist progress would be much more rapid, forgetting that anarchy would ensue, the end of which would be as difficult to foresee as it would be to find a means of terminating it, or of discovering a manner in which any European Government could govern 200,000,000 Chinamen. The losses which the re-establishment of a stable regime would entail, and the vast expense of subduing rebellion, would certainly exceed those resulting from the procrastination under the actual form of Government.

At the end of a certain period it is highly probable that the march of events may be accelerated, and when the mass of the Chinese people have been placed in contact with the results of Western progress, it is very probable that its great common-sense will do the rest. It is an appeal to their essentially commercial and money-making instincts that we must make if we wish to convert the Chinese, the most realistic and the least idealistic of nations. Railways will be the best missionaries of civilization in China.

INDEX

A

Advances, small, made to immigrants into Siberia, 47

Agricultural zone, 5, 7;
extent, 8;
population, 10

Agriculture, Siberian peasants’ ignorance of, 24, 25;
products of Japan, 125, 129;
novel methods of manuring, 130

Ahmar Dabam Mountains, 12

Ainos, the, 85

Albazine, heroic defence of, 3

Alexander III. decrees the creation of the Trans-Siberian Railway, 66

Alexandrofsk, prison of, 54

Altai Mountains, the, 10;
valleys of the, 47

Amur province annexed by Russia, 13;
population, 13;
free from all special Custom duties, 33, _note_;
number of immigrants annually, 47;
Russian immigrants have to face a large Asiatic contingent, 49;
Buddhists in the province, 51;
only likely to attract Russians, 53

Amur River, Khabarof, establishes himself on the, 3;
immigrants settle in the region, 47;
damp climate, 47;
Government assists colonization in the Amur basin, 48

Armstrong, Whitworth, and Co. construct the ferry-boats for Lake
Baikal, 69

Army, Japanese, strengthened, 141;
excellence of the troops, 166, 167

Art, Japanese, withstands Chinese influences, 87;
under the Tokugawas, 100;
art industries, 119;
hasty production and deterioration, 137

Artillery employed at the naval battle of Shigutake, 93

Aryans, the, 172

Asiatic Ocean, tribes in the region of the, 6

Astrakhan annexed by Russia, 1

B

Baikal, Lake, beauty of, 12;
used in the transport of tea, 32;
ferry-boats to convey trains across, 66;
its size, 69

Barabinsk Steppe, the, 11

Barley in Siberia, 7, 24

Barnaoul, 38;
attractive to immigrants, 47

Beer, excellent, at Irkutsk;
Japanese beer, 120

Behring Straits, native races in the district of the, 52

Berizof on the Obi, climate, 5

Berlin, distance to Vladivostok and Port Arthur, 76

Biisk attractive to immigrants, 47

Birch, predominance of the, 9

Black Current, the, 5

Blagovyeshchensk, its prosperity, 30;
fruit and vegetables brought to, by Chinese, 51

Blue River, mouth of the, 188;
its banks, 235

Brandt’s, Herr von, estimate of Chinese revenue, 219

Bridges, Siberian, carried away by inundations, 59;
bridges of the Trans-Siberian Railway, 68

Britain, Great, trade with Siberia, 62;
important commerce with Japan, 139;
Japan’s friendship for her, 168;
new commercial treaty with Japan, 179, 180;
concessions made to, by China, 240;
she turns her back on China for Japan, 244;
the treaty with France concerning Yunnan, 262;
she regains her position in China, 263;
public wrath at the German seizure of Kiao-chau, 269;
the ‘open door’ policy, 270, 271, 274;
offer of a loan to China, 270;
important convention with China regarding the Yang-tsze-Kiang basin,
etc., 271;
danger of war with Russia, 272;
Wei-hai-wei and Kowloon ceded to Great Britain, 273;
the English public still dissatisfied, 274;
the Niu-chwang Railway affair, 275;
Great Britain’s commerce with China, 272, 273;
better relations with Germany, 286

British bombard Kagoshima, 106

British Columbia, temperate climate, 5

Brushes, Japanese, 120

Bubonic plague, microbe of the, discovered by a Japanese, 177

Buddhism practised by the Buriats, 12;
in Trans-Baikalia and the Amur, 51;
introduced into Japan, 86;
purer in Japan than in China, 87;
degenerated in China, 202

Buriats, the, 12;
in Trans-Baikalia, 51;
in the Amur district, 51

Butter scarce in Siberia, 19;
exported to Russia, 22

C

Camels employed in the tea trade, 34

Canada compared with Siberia, 4;
rivers and agricultural area, 4;
position superior to that of Siberia, 4, 5;
difference between Canada and Siberia, 55

Canton, the foreign mart of China, 229

Catholics not tolerated in Russia, 14, 15;
their churches in all large Siberian towns, 15

Cattle, very numerous in Siberia, 22;
exported thence to Europe, 22;
scarcity in Japan, 128

Cedar-trees, Siberian, 11;
their seeds eaten by the Siberians, 11

Cereals in Siberia, 7;
a lengthy summer necessary for their cultivation, 8;
in the valleys of the Upper Yenissei and Obi, 21;
the harvest, 23;
unfavourable climate in Siberia, 25;
exported, 31

Chancellor first enters Russia viâ the White Sea, 61

Chartered Company, a, established under the Strogonofs, 2

Cheliabinsk in the Great Plain, 9;
scenery, 9;
refuges for immigrants at, 46

China allows Russia to build the Manchurian Railway, 67;
her interest in it, 72;
commercial class have always been honoured in China, 141;
Japan her best friend, 167;
China compared with Turkey, 183;
density of the population, 184;
enormous coal and copper beds untouched, 184;
China more backward than India or Japan, 185;
the significance of the Japanese War, 185;
end of China’s isolation, 186;
possible results of her dissolution, 187, 281;
first impressions, 188;
cultivation of the soil, 190;
Peking, 190;
Hien-feng’s hunting excursion, 195;
ruin of the once fine highroads, 199, 201;
hills never cultivated, 202;
squandering of money, 203;
general decay, 203;
the mandarinate the curse of China, 204;
the literati, 204–206;
corruption, 206, 217;
how the governing class is selected, 208;
the causes of her isolation, 209, 210;
the non-existence of any martial spirit among the people, 210;
irregularities in the Government, 211;
long existence of the State, 212;
patriotism unknown, 213;
population, 214, _note_;
taxes light, 218, 219;
total revenue, 219;
natural disasters, 220;
population does not increase, 220;
rapacity of officials, 220, 221;
the result of the opening up of the country, 227;
the Treaty of Shimonosaki, 228, 236;
opposition to foreigners, 229;
nothing to be expected from the Government, 236;
industries, 237, 238;
increase of wages, 238, 239;
industries still limited to the Treaty Ports, 240;
China’s commerce, 241, 282–286;
her collapse after the War, 242, 243;
England turns her back on China, 244;
North China coveted by Russia, 246;
the intervention of Russia, France, and Germany, 247;
Russia better liked than any other Western Power, 248;
China becomes alarmed at Russia, 251;
Russian interference in the War settlement, 252;
a foreign debt contracted, 253;
it leads to further foreign interference, 254;
Russia becomes guarantor for China, 255;
Russian influence predominant, 258;
concessions to Germany, 259;
to France, 259–261;
England regains her position in China, 263, 264;
railway concessions, 267, 268;
Germany seizes Kiao-chau, 268;
wrath in England at this act, 269;
important concessions to England, 271;
England declares the ‘open door’ policy, 271, 274;
China leases the Liao-tung Peninsula to Russia, 271, 272;
concessions to France, 272;
Wei-hai-wei and Kowloon ceded to England, 273;
the Niu-chwang Railway affair, 275;
progress made in China, 275;
germs of disaffection, 276, 277;
the Palace Revolution of September, 1898, 277, 278;
the government of the Empress Dowager, 278, 279;
difference between China to-day and Japan in 1868, 279, 280;
friendly feeling for Japan, 285;
the partisans of the ‘open door,’ 285;
the present government preferable to a partition, 288;
railways the best missionaries, 289

Chinese at Vladivostok, 13, 50;
supply Blagovyeshchensk with fruit and vegetables, 51;
also Khabarofsk, 52;
Chinese emigration to Eastern Siberia, 52;
their distinctness as a race, 84;
Chinese civilization introduced into Japan, 86;
integrity of Chinese merchants, 140;
patience of Chinese, 184;
their insolence to foreigners, 195;
their energy, 196;
their habit of saving appearances, 196, 197, 203, 216;
the peasantry, 199;
the Chinese alphabet, 206, 207;
the _feng-shui_ geomancy, 209, 225;
patriotism non-existent, 213;
physical and linguistic differences among the Chinese, 214, 215;
their civilization, 216;
love of cunning, 217;
Chinese etiquette, 217;
life very easy for the people, 218;
the people and the Government, 218, 219;
their contented disposition, 220;
resignation, 221;
their indifference to death and cruelty, 221;
suicides out of spite, 222;
why they are bad soldiers, 222, 223;
they might be better, 223, _note_;
filial piety and infanticide, 223;
ancestor worship the cause of non-progressiveness, 223, 224;
unhappy lot of married women, 224;
their immorality, 224;
gambling, the national vice, 224;
opium-smoking, 225;
filthy habits and superstition, 225;
good qualities of the Chinese, 226;
their habit of looking to the past for a type of perfection, 226;
their lack of discernment, 226;
scandalized by Christianity, 230;
Chinese and Western civilization, 230, 231;
appreciation of our administration, 231, 232;
their superstitions about missionaries, 232

Chino-Japanese War, significance of the, 185

Christianity introduced into Japan, 93;
its great progress, 94;
extirpated, 95;
not accepted by modern Japan, 174;
Christianity in China, 230

Chuckchis, the, 6

Churches very numerous in Siberian towns, 40

Clans, the south-eastern, a danger to the Shogunate, 99;
they join the Mikado against the Shogun, 104;
survival of the clannish spirit in modern Japan, 156

Coal, abundant in Siberia, 29, 30;
coal in Japan, 167;
enormous beds in China, 184

Commerce, Japanese, enormous increase of, 135–140;
its high standard not maintained, 140;
the Treaty of Shimonosaki and Chinese commerce, 236;
transport of goods in China, 240;
the _likin_ system, 240, 241;
total amount of Chinese commerce, 241

Confucius’ works studied by the literati, 206;
his views on filial piety, 223

Copper-mines, Siberian, 29, 30;
copper exported from Japan, 140

Cossacks encounter little opposition, 2;
they traverse Siberia from end to end, 3;
they disappear as hardy pioneers, 3;
the Cossacks of the Vitim region, 12

Cotton industry introduced into Japan, 119;
its wonderful progress, 122;
cotton factories in Shanghai, 237;
total amount of cotton imported into China, 241

Custom-house duties in Siberia, 33;
in China, 240

D

Daimios forbidden to enter Kioto, 97;
the five grades, 97, 98;
their initiation enfeebled, 100;
horror of the barbarians, 104;
they recognise the uselessness of opposing the foreigners, 106

Dan-no-ura, the naval battle of, 89

Dogs, Siberian, like wolves, 18

Dutch the only Europeans allowed to traffic with Japan, 95, 96

E

Education, its backward state in Siberia, 20;
making considerable progress, 40;
education in Japan, 134, 176, 177;
in China, 206–208

Electric light in Siberian towns, 40;
in Tokio, 114

Emigration from Russia, 44;
its management, 45
(_see_ also Immigration)

Empress Dowager and the Palace Revolution, 278;
a clever woman, 278, 279;
her party known as the Russian, 280

England (_see_ Britain, Great)

English attempts to enter Siberia viâ the Arctic Ocean, 61–62;
an English company creates an annual service to Siberia by this
route, 62

Ermak Timoféef seizes Sibir, 2

Eunuchs, the, 16

Examinations, public, in China, 205;
the subjects chosen, 206, 208;
the ‘new Western culture,’ 207, 208

Exiles, two classes of, sent to Siberia, 53;
allowed to settle in towns, 54;
occupations, 54;
families allowed to accompany them, 55;
their number in 1894, 55;
the artillery captain at Kluchi, 57

F

_Feng-shui_ geomancy, Chinese, 209, 225

Ferry-boats to convey trains across Lake Baikal, 66, 69

Fetish-tree, a, 12

Finance, Japanese, brilliant condition before the war, 143, 144;
the programme of expansion, 145;
subvention to Formosa, 146;
large loan required, 146;
scarcity of cash, 147;
a foreign loan, 148;
the revenue of 1897–1898, 149;
increase of taxation, 149;
new sources of revenue, 150;
taxes not really heavy, 150–152;
other possible sources, 151

Fir-trees, Siberian, 6, 10

Fishing industry, importance of Japanese, 128

Flowers, Siberian, 11, 23;
Japanese love of flowers, 133

Foreigners, Japanese suspicion of, 178 179;
the commercial treaties, 178–180;
the land tenure difficulty, 180, 181;
foreigners in China, 228;
demand a free hand to trade, 229;
opinion of Chinese about them, 230–233;
before the war, 235, 236;
Treaty of Shimonosaki, 236;
the literati and foreigners, 277

Forest Zone, the Great, 5;
its trees, 6;
marshlands and severe climate, 7;
may become of great value, 7;
population, 7

Formosa, Japanese subvention to, 146

France, why attracted to Tongking, 185;
she co-operates with Russia and against Japan, 247;
her sacrifice in turning from Japan, 249;
Russia endeavours to draw her into warlike demonstrations against
Japan, 250;
‘advantages’ gained by her intervention, 259, 260, 262;
her treaty with England concerning Tongking, 262;
France the protectress of Catholicism in China, 263;
she suffers a check in China, 264;
more concessions obtained, 272, 273;
the part she ought to play, 288

French settlers in Siberia, 15;
the Government generally indulgent towards them, 53

Fujiwara family, the, retains the Prime Ministership, 88

Fukuzawa, Mr., editor of the _Jiji Shimpo_, 103

Furniture, absence of, in Japanese houses, 131

Furs, exported from Siberia, 31

G

Gambling, the national Chinese vice, 224

Germany, commerce with Japan, 139;
she co-operates with Russia and France against Japan, 247;
reason for so doing, 249, 250;
small advantages obtained in return, 259;
she seizes Kiao-chau, 268;
constitutes Shan-tung a sphere of interest, 271;
her commerce with China, 286;
better relations with England, 286

Glass in Japan, 120

Gold-mines, Siberian, in the Forest Zone, 7;
employ relatively few people, 17;
their exploitation and yield, 27, 29;
Government the only buyer of Siberian gold, 28;
bad system of taxation and other drawbacks, 28;
primitive implements used, 28;
the most important veins generally difficult to get at, 28;
mining centre removed to the banks of the Amur and Lena, 29;
exploitation only granted to Russian subjects, 53

Great Wall of China, the, 201–203

H

Hankow, on the Yang-tsze, the great tea mart of China, 34;
projection of a railway from Peking to Hankow, 268

_Hara-kiri_, the ferocious custom of, in Japan, 98;
in China, 222

Hart, Sir Robert, 240

_Heimino_, or commoners of Japan, 99;
_heimino_ in the public offices, 156

Henry, Prince, and the ‘mailed fist,’ 269

Hideyoshi reduces the daimios to obedience, 91;
orders all missionaries to leave Japan, 94

Hien-feng’s hunting excursion, 195

High-roads of China, dilapidated condition of the, 199, 203

Hitotsubashi, tries to retrieve the Shogunate, 106;
his overthrow, 107

Hong-Kong seventeen days from London viâ Siberia, 77;
commerce with Japan, 139;
Chinese in Hong-Kong, 231, 232;
lease of the surrounding heights to England, 273;
her total commerce, 282

Horses sometimes difficult to procure on the Siberian postal-road, 21;
their great number in Siberia, 22;
horses in Japan, 128

Hu-nan, coal-beds in, 184

I

Iemitsu enfeebles the initiative of the daimios, 100

Ieyas, Tokugawa, rises to power, 92;
he reduces the Court to poverty, 97;
creates divergencies among the daimios, 99;
and revives the Chinese classics, 100

Immigrants into Siberia almost exclusively peasants, 45;
Tobolsk a great meeting-place for them, 45;
the routes taken, 45;
length of the journey, 46;
refuges erected for their accommodation, 46;
those coming from same districts grouped together, 46;
regulations for their settlement 46, 47;
small advances made to them, 47;
where they settle, 47;
many return again to Russia, 48

Imperial canal, Chinese, ruinous condition of the, 203

Indemnity, Chinese War, 145;
paid in gold, 146, _note_;
the Liao-tung indemnity, 251–252

India more advanced than China, 185

Industries, Japanese, 118;
fancy goods, 119;
glass, brushes, and foundries, 120;
jute carpet and match industries, 121;
enormous progress of cotton, 122;
Japanese own all their own industries, 122, 123;
scarcity of workmen, 123;
abuses in the employment of women, 123;
hours of labour, 123;
holidays, 124;
increase of wages, 124;
diminution of capital, 124;
fisheries, 128;
Chinese industries, 237;
women employés, 238;
their wages, 238, 239;
industries limited to the free ports, 240

Infanticide in China, 221

Inland Sea, the, of Japan, 112;
its light-houses, 112

Inundations in Siberia, 59

_Iourdis_, or Kirghiz huts, 46

Irbit, the great fair at, 35

Irkutsk, difference between the Customs on tea at Odessa and Irkutsk,
36;
total Customs in 1896, 37;
population, 38;
the theatre, 41;
Irkutsk once capital of Siberia, 42;
its excellent beer, 54;
Government of, population in 1897, 12, 13;
number of immigrants annually, 47

Iron mines, Siberian, 27, 30

_Isbas_, the, or Siberian peasants’ cottages, 18;
interior ornamentation, 23

Islamism professed by the Kirghiz, 10

Ito, Marquis, 160,162;
the Ito programme, 144, 145

Ivan the Terrible, 1;
grants the Strogonofs trading privileges, 2

J

Japan, the Black Current, 5;
her transformation, 81, 82;
European scepticism as to military success, 82;
early history, 83;
its settlement, 84;
introduction of Chinese civilization, 86;
also of Buddhism, the silkworm, etc., 86;
resemblance of the adoption of Chinese civilization in the seventh
with that of European in the nineteenth century, 87;
the system of heredity, 87, 88;
real authority very rarely vested in the man supposed to exercise it,
88;
feudalism established, 88;
dissensions in the Government, 88;
the Government overthrown by Yoritomo, 89;
increasing power of the daimios, 89;
the Shogunate, 89, 90;
non-interference of the Mikado in the Government, 90;
civil wars, 90;
pitiable condition of Japan at the beginning of the sixteenth
century, 90, 91;
suppression of the independence of the nobles, 91;
Ieyas rises to power, 92;
arrival of the Portuguese in Japan, 92;
St. Francis Xavier introduces Christianity, 93;
great progress made by it, 93, 94;
material progress, 94;
Hideyoshi orders all missionaries to leave Japan, 94, 95;
Christianity extirpated in Japan and exclusion of foreign influence,
95;
Dutch and Chinese only allowed to trade with Japan, 95, 96;
the three ancient classes of the people, 97–99;
the daimios divided by Ieyas among themselves, 99;
Japan under the Tokugawas, 100;
again under Chinese influences, 100;
the causes of the Revolution of 1868 deep-rooted, 101;
decline of the Shogunate, 101;
penetration of Western ideas into Japan, 102;
the United States demands the opening of the ports, 103;
ports opened, 104;
overthrow of the Shogunate, 104–107;
necessity of adopting Western civilization in all branches perceived,
107;
sweeping reforms, 108;
removal of the Court to Tokio, 108;
the Satsuma insurrection, 108;
modern Japan, 109;
religious toleration, 111;
Japan the Great Britain of the Far East, 118;
her industries, 118–124;
essentially an agricultural country, 125;
agricultural products, 125, 126, 129, 130;
scenery, 126;
density of the rural population, 126;
small area of cultivable land, 127, 128;
scarcity of domestic animals, 128;
education, 134;
increase of the population, 134;
foreign commerce, 135–140;
trade despised in ancient Japan, 140;
brilliant condition of her finances before the war, 143, 144;
extensive programme of expansion, 144, 145;
large loan required to meet same, 146;
a foreign loan, 148;
taxation, 150–152;
instability of Parliaments, 154;
the clan spirit in modern Japan, 156;
the Parliamentary system, 156–163;
importance of Japan’s military forces, 165;
her coal, 167;
Japan China’s best friend, 167;
her friendship for England and distrust of Russia, 168;
colonizing ambitions, 170;
her thorough transformation, 174;
refusal to accept Christianity, 174;
the civil status, 175;
railway and post 176;
carelessness and unpunctuality, 177;
inexperience, 178;
hostility to foreigners, 178;
renewal of the commercial treaties, 178–180;
land tenure, 180;
her foreign missions, 182;
Japan more advanced than China, 185;
the Treaty of Shimonosaki, 228;
England suddenly favours Japan, 244;
Japan leaves Liao-tung in consequence of the demand by Russia,
France, and Germany, 247;
her fears of Russia, 247, 251;
Russia’s warlike intentions against Japan, 250;
China desires an alliance, 251;
compensation for leaving Liao-tung, 251, 252;
Japan’s high-handed policy in Korea, 256, 257;
agreement with Russia regarding Korea, 258;
Japan prepares for a conflict with Russia, 267;
her commerce with China, 284;
good relations with China, 285

Japanese in Vladivostok, 50;
origin of the Japanese, 84;
quite distinct from the Chinese, 85, 171;
the early Japanese, 85;
the Shinto religion, 85;
their power of assimilation, 93;
costumes, 111, 115, 132;
proud of their victory over the Chinese, 112;
their houses, 114, 115;
the children, 115, 116;
European costume, 116;
their industries in their own hands, 122, 123;
their food, 130;
dwellings of the peasantry, 131;
disuse of furniture, 131;
freedom of the women, 132;
artistic instinct of the Japanese, 132;
cost of living, 133;
charges brought against merchants, 140;
Japanese do not yet understand the value of time, 141;
the three classes of society not exclusive, 155;
indifference to politics, 163;
their hardiness, 166;
lack of inventiveness, 177;
attention to detail, 177;
unpunctuality, 177;
indifference to death, 221

Jews in Siberia, 15

Jimmu-Tenno, first Emperor of Japan, 83, 84

Jinrikisha, the, in Japan, 116;
the fares, 117;
in China, 189

Junks, Japanese, rapidly disappearing, 112

Jute carpet-making at Osaka, 121

K

_Kaborski tchaï_, the, 9

Kagoshima bombarded by the British, 106

Kainsk, the Jerusalem of Siberia, 15

Kaiping, coal-mines at, 189

Kalmucks, the, 10

Kami, or superior beings, 85

Kamtchatka reached by the Cossacks Alexief and Dezhnief, 3

Kang-Yu-Wei, the Reformer, 278;
his party known as the Anglo-Japanese, 280

Kansk, the refuges for immigrants at, 46

Kara Sea, navigation only possible during six weeks, 62

Kazan, the Tatar kingdom, annexed by Russia, 1

Khabarof, the Ataman, establishes himself on the Amur, 3

Khabarofsk, the military element at, 39;
its few women, 51, 52

Kiakhta, tea passing through, 32;
the three parts of the town, 32

Kiao-chau seized by the Germans, 268;
made a free port, 286

Kioto, feudal princes never allowed to enter, 97;
Court removed from Kioto to Tokio, 108;
population, 118;
industries, 121

Kirghiz Steppes crossed by the Russians in 1847, 3

Kirghiz tribe, the, 10;
number and religion, 10;
they export their cattle to Europe, 22

Kiu-Siu settled by Mongolian pirates, 84

Kobylkas, the, 25