Chapter VIII: False Prophets of Jugernath

The truth of a religion may perhaps be gauged by the fulfilment of the utterances of its prophets. Let us analyze some of these.

_Prophecy._ _Fulfilment_.

Even the _free_ importation of Total importations of wheat
foreign corn could very little in 1881 = 17,000,000 quarters
affect the interest of the farmers as against 23,728 prophesied by
of Great Britain.... If there Adam Smith.
were no bounty, less corn would
be exported, so it is probable
that, one year with another, _less
corn would be imported than at
present_.... The average quantity
imported one year with another
amounts only to 23,728 quarters.
(Wealth of Nations, by Adam
Smith, Bk. IV, Chap. II.)

The Americans are a very cautious, After receiving the agricultural
far-seeing people, and every products of America for
one who knows them knows that thirty-eight years, we find the
they would never have tolerated Americans are as strong
their protective tariff if we had protectionists as ever, and the
met their advances by receiving presidential message, 4th
their agricultural products in December 1883, recommends that
exchange for our manufacturing America should retaliate on all
products. (Cobden, 1842.) countries taxing American
produce.

I speak my unfeigned convictions After thirty-eight years of free
when I say I believe there trade Prophet Bright admits that
is no interest in the country that the agricultural classes, owners
would receive so much benefit and occupiers of land have lost
from the repeal of the Corn Laws more than £150,000,000. Numerous
as the Farm-tenant interest in farm-tenants have emigrated
this country. (Cobden, 1844.) to protectionist America.

I believe when the future historian The true historian will have
comes to write the history to record:--
of agriculture, he will have to
state:--In such a year there was a “After the introduction of free
stringent Corn law passed for the trade, although the general
protection of agriculture. From advance of wealth due to
that time agriculture slumbered improvements in science, steam
in England, and it was not until, and electricity gave to England,
by the aid of the Anti-Corn-Law- from time to time, the appearance
League, the Corn Law was of agricultural prosperity, yet
utterly abolished, that agriculture agriculture gradually decayed; and
sprung up into the full in 1884 millions of acres had gone
vigour of existence in England, out of tillage; land had become
to become what it is now, like foul and was badly farmed;
the manufactures, unrivalled in hundreds of farms were absolutely
the world. (Cobden, 1844.) untenanted; farmers had emigrated
to protectionist countries;
landowners had sold their land
at ruinous prices, and invested
the residue in America. Never
was ruin more complete.”

You have no more right to Not only is no other country
doubt that the sun will rise in the free-trader, but even England
heavens, than to doubt that, in ten is getting rather shaky
years from the time when England in her adhesion. Mr. Forster,
inaugurates the glorious era of at Bradford, entreated his
commercial freedom, every civilized hearers not to “say anything that
country will be free-trader might induce foreigners to
to the backbone. (Cobden, 1844.) _suspect that our faith in free
trade was shaken_” Mr. Bright,
in his letter to Mr. Lord, wrote;
“To return to Protection, under
the name of Reciprocity, is to
confess to Protectionists abroad
that _we have been wrong and
they have been right_.”

I believe that if you abolish After thirty-eight years not a
the Corn Laws and adopt free single country in Europe has been
trade in its simplicity, there will foolish enough to follow our
not be a tariff in Europe that example. France has drawn back
will not be changed in less than from her commercial treaty with
five years to follow your example. us. Mr. Thiers, in his speech of
(Cobden, 1846.) January 18th, 1880, said: “In
the first country in the world
arrangements are made to protect
the different branches of
native industry.”

Bastiat prophesied that France France has not adopted free
would adopt free trade in six years trade, and is more strongly
after England had adopted it. protectionist than ever.

Bastiat prophesied that, without Statistics given in the next
free trade, no country can chapter shows that the relative
prosper. prosperity of protectionist
countries is greater than that
of England.

Bastiat prophesied that because Belgium is enjoying wonderful
Belgium had rejected free prosperity.
trade her ruin was certain.

Professor Cairnes says:--

“The able men who led the agitation for the repeal of the Corn
Laws promised much more than this. They told us that the Poor
Laws were to follow the Corn Laws; that pauperism would disappear
with the restrictions upon trade, and the workhouses ere long
become obsolete institutions. I fear this part of the programme
has scarcely been fulfilled; those ugly social features,
those violent contrasts of poverty and wealth, that strike so
unpleasantly the eye of every foreign observer in this country,
are still painfully prominent. The signs of the extinction of
pauperism are not very apparent.”[30]

Disraeli prophesied in 1852:--

“The time will come when the working classes in England will
come to you on bended knees, and pray you to undo your present
legislation.”

And it really seems as if the time was approaching for the fulfilment of his prophecy, for I read in a recent Paper:

“It is the intention of the leading men among the Cotton
Operatives to move next session for a Royal Commission to enquire
as to what extent, if any, we suffer from foreign competition,
and _what bearing free trade may have on the question_.”

Sir Edward Sullivan also stated in a recent speech that:

“Already a number of Operatives, far more than is necessary to
turn a general election, have, through their delegates, given in
their adherence to _Fair_ trade.”[31]

Fair trade is one step in the direction of protection.

FOOTNOTES:

[30] _Fortnightly Review_, July, 1871.

[31] _The Mail_, December 19th, 1883.