Chapter VI: Conclusion

In view of all these records I cannot think that any unbiassed person will be able to avoid the conclusion that large numbers and national efficiency are not to be secured by a high birth-rate, especially in the lower strata of society. High birth-rates to-day invariably mean high general and infantile death-rates, and, when accompanied by humanitarian legislation, a serious process of reversed selection.

The explanation of this apparent paradox lies in the fact, which never seems to be properly understood, that the population of the world and of nearly all countries is constantly being kept in check by insufficiency of food. A French statistician, M. Hardy, has calculated (and his figures, though challenged by great authorities, have now been accepted) that if the total food production of the world were fairly distributed among its inhabitants, the ration of proteids available for each would only be two-thirds of that recognised as necessary for efficiency. Mr. Seebohm Rowntree has shown that large numbers of families in our own country—the richest in the world—have deficiencies of protein in their diet by amounts up to 40 per cent., and over 2,500,000 adult male workers have wages of 25s. a week or less, upon which with the present cost of living and rent in towns it is impossible to bring up more than three children properly. As a result, whenever families are large a considerable proportion of the children die, and of those who survive many grow up stunted and incapable of assimilating a good training. The over-crowding caused by large families with an ever decreasing margin for rent is also a potent cause of disease and of immorality—the latter evil being further greatly intensified by the economic difficulties in the way of marriage that are the chief bar to the prevention of those terrible diseases for which the Royal Commission, presided over by our Chairman, is investigating a remedy.

That the rate of increase of population of a country depends in almost every case upon its power of feeding its people by its own or imported food, and not upon its birth-rate, is a matter which statesmen will have to recognise; and those who are anxious for the increase of the population of our country and Empire, should turn their attention to the acceleration of food production instead of deploring the declining birth-rate. No intelligent person will claim that the food producing possibilities of the world are exhausted, but it does appear difficult to increase them at more than a very slow rate (probably at present not more than 6 per cent. or 7 per cent. in a decade); and the world’s population cannot increase faster than the food does. Irrigation in India has been followed by an increase in population far greater than before, and encouragement of agriculture or of the industries which bring food to this country is the only means by which our increase of population can be accelerated. No shuffling of the incidence of taxation, and no humanitarian schemes, will affect it—except prejudicially by favoring the increase of the inefficient rather than the efficient. Nor will emigration, the panacea of the orthodox Imperialist, solve the problem. We do not want effective producers to leave us, and these are the only people our colonies really desire. Our town-bred weaklings are frequently less fitted to succeed in the Colonies than at home, as the experience of Canada appears to testify. It has been said that “no Empire can survive which is rotten at the core”; and if we persist in the policy of encouraging the excessive reproduction of the poor, of taxing the capable for their support, of keeping about a third of our men and women unmarried, and of seeing many of our best emigrate for want of decent prospects at home, we need not be surprised if our Imperial efficiency diminishes.

On the other hand, if we consider the example of Holland we may be assured that a further fall in the birth-rate among the poorer classes will be accompanied by an immediate and progressive improvement in their conditions, by a checking of the output of physical and mental defectives, and by a gain in the national efficiency, and probably also in the rate of increase of our population. As the Bishop of Ripon said at the Church Congress of 1910: “If the diminution of the birth-rate could be shown to prevail among the unfit, we might view the phenomenon without apprehension, and we might even welcome the fact as evidence of the existence of noble and self-denying ideals.” There is no reason why the death-rate in any part of our Empire should be higher than the 9 per thousand of New Zealand, where poverty as we know it scarcely exists. The birth-rate of Great Britain can therefore fall to 20 per thousand before our normal natural increase of 11 per thousand is reduced. As this paper is being concluded, the Registrar-General’s figures for 1913 have come to hand, and show that the fall of the birth-rate in the last three years has been accompanied by a recovery in the natural increase to 10.8 per thousand.

DIAGRAMS OF INTERNATIONAL VITAL STATISTICS

Prepared by Charles V. Drysdale, D.Sc., 1911

In the accompanying diagrams white strips imply birth-rates, shaded strips death-rates, and black strips infantile mortality, or deaths of children under one year. The amount of the white strip visible above the shaded strip is, of course, the excess of birth over death-rate, or the rate of natural increase of population.

Fig. 1.—Shows the relation between birth and death-rates and infantile mortality in various countries in 1901–05.

Fig. 2.—Relation between birth-rate and _corrected_ death-rates in various countries. (This shows that France is healthier than appears in Fig. 1.)

Fig. 3.—Shows relation between birth and death-rates from various causes in five districts of London.

Fig. 4.—Relation between the birth-rate and death-rate for various arrondissements of Paris in 1906. (Note that the increase in the Elysée quarter is as high as the average in the quarters of high birth-rate.)

Figs. 5 and 6.—Variations of the total population of birth- and death-rates in the United Kingdom and the German Empire. (Note that the fall in the death-rate corresponds fairly closely to that in the birth-rate.)

Fig. 7.—The same for France. (Note that the population is still increasing, although slowly.)

Fig. 8.—Birth and death-rates for France since 1781. (Note that the rate of increase of population in 1781 was no higher with a birth-rate of 39 per 1,000 than in 1901–6 with a birth-rate of only 21 per 1,000. A fall of 17.8 per 1,000 in the birth-rate has resulted in a fall of 17.5 per 1,000 in the death-rate.)

Fig. 9.—Birth and death-rates and infantile mortality for England and Wales. Also marriage rate, fertility of married women, illegitimacy, and variation of diseases. (Note that the illegitimate birth-rate has fallen to half since the fall of the birth-rate set in.)

Fig. 10.—Birth and death-rates and infantile mortality in the Netherlands. (Notice the rapid increase of population as the death-rate falls, and the great fall of infantile mortality, probably due to the practical work of the Dutch Neo-Malthusian Birth Control League among the poor.)

Figs. 11–13.—Protestant Countries. (Notice the correspondence between the birth and the death-rates and infantile mortality in all.)

Figs. 14–16.—Roman Catholic Countries. (Note that the fall of the birth-rate has taken place almost equally with that in the Protestant countries, and with the same result.)

Figs. 17–20.—The only four countries in which the birth-rate is approximately _stationary_. (Notice that the death-rate has not fallen—except perhaps in Russia—and that the infantile mortality has not fallen. Also that the highest birth-rate produces the highest death rate and infantile mortality, and the lowest birth-rate the lowest mortality.)

Figs. 21–24.—The only four countries with _rising_ birth-rates. The _death rate and infantile mortality have increased in every one_.

Fig. 25.—Australia. The death-rate has fallen with the birth rate, and is now only about 10 per 1,000.

Fig. 26.—New Zealand. The only country in which the fall in the birth-rate has not produced a fall in the death-rate, and which is not therefore over populated. The infantile mortality is the lowest in the world, and the death-rate less than 10 per 1,000, which gives us an ideal which we can reach in all countries by lowering the birth-rate sufficiently.

Fig. 27.—The City of Toronto. The birth-rate has fallen and afterwards risen. The death-rate has fallen with the birth-rate, and afterwards risen, indicating that the improvements in sanitation have not been the cause of the falling death rate in other countries.

Fig. 28.—Berlin. The birth-rate rose rapidly from 1841 to 1876, and afterwards fell even more rapidly. The death-rate, except for epidemics and wars, rose and fell in almost precise correspondence with the birth-rate.

Fig. 29.—Berlin. The dotted area shows the fertility rate or births per 1,000 married women, and indicates the remarkably rapid fall since 1876. The correspondence of the infantile mortality with the birth-rate shown in Fig. 28 is very close.

Figs. 30 and 31.—Europe and Western Europe. These show that the total population of Europe is increasing faster the more the birth-rate falls, while in Western Europe the birth and death-rates correspond almost exactly. Calculations made from this show that about 25,000,000 fewer births and deaths have occurred in Europe since 1876, due to the fall in the birth-rate caused by the Knowlton Trial and the Neo-Malthusian movement. It should be noted that in the great majority of cases the decline of the birth-rate commenced in 1877, the year of the Knowlton Trial.

CHARLES V. DRYSDALE, D.Sc.
1911.

_VARIOUS COUNTRIES
1901–05._

_VARIOUS COUNTRIES.
CRUDE & CORRECTED DEATH-RATES._

_LONDON
1905–1909._

_PARIS
1906._

_UNITED KINGDOM. Growth of Population._

_UNITED KINGDOM. Birth and Death Rates._

_GERMAN EMPIRE. Growth of Population._

_GERMAN EMPIRE. Birth and Death Rates._

_FRANCE POPULATION._

_FRANCE._
_BIRTH & DEATH RATES._

_VARIOUS DISEASES._

_FRANCE._
_BIRTH & DEATH RATES._

_ENGLAND & WALES._
_BIRTHS & DEATHS._
_MARRIAGE, FERTILITY, & ILLEGITIMACY._
_VARIOUS DISEASES._

_THE NETHERLANDS._

_NORWAY._

_SWEDEN._

_DENMARK._

_BELGIUM._

_ITALY._

_SPAIN._

COUNTRIES WITH NEARLY STATIONARY BIRTH-RATE

_RUSSIA._

_ROUMANIA._

_JAMAICA._

_IRELAND._

COUNTRIES WITH RISING BIRTH-RATES

BRITISH COLONIES

_CANADA (Ontario)._

_AUSTRALIA (Commonwealth)._

_NEW ZEALAND._

_THE CITY OF TORONTO._

_BERLIN._

_BERLIN._

_EUROPE._

_WESTERN EUROPE._