Chapter I: Part 1

THOUGHTS
ON THE
MECHANISM
OF
SOCIETIES.

By the MARQUIS DE CASAUX,
FELLOW OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY.

_TRANSLATED FROM THE FRENCH_
(_Under the Inspection of the Author_)
By PARKYNS MAC MAHON.

_If Men would be content to graft upon Nature, and assist her
operations, what mighty effects might we expect!_

SPECTATOR.

_LONDON,
Printed by T. Spilsbury, Snowhill._

Sold by G. G. J. and J. ROBINSON, in _Pater-noster Row_;
W. RICHARDSON, under the _Royal Exchange_; and
J. DEBRETT, _Piccadilly._

M,DCC,LXXXVI.

PREFACE BY THE EDITOR.

It is not a _treatise_ that the Author announces; it is nothing more than _Thoughts on the Mechanism of Societies_. Such a title does not confine a Writer to a regular plan; it saves him even the risk of preparing his Readers for a chain of ideas which cannot escape their sagacity if it exist, and on which they cannot be deceived if it do not. But in a picture consecrated to the world at large as well as to his own Country, to the People as well as to their Rulers, it was necessary that the most striking object, the object to which their first attention was called, should be of so general an interest, as to entice them progressively to an investigation of all those details which deserve most to be scrutinised, and of which the different relations are either little known, or greatly mistaken.

The object which at present fixes the attention of all the States in _Europe_, (all of them either debtors or creditors), is the _National Debt of England_, and the measures which will be taken on that subject by the Assembly the most clear-sighted of any in the world to every thing that concerns the interests of the people, the most jealous of its rights, and the most free, at least in its debates. It is by considering that formidable debt, and its influence on the wealth of the State and the ease of the People, that the Author dares to begin. But before he proceeds to unfold the mechanism of the national debt, the result of which developement presents some ideas too opposite to the received opinion, he endeavours by degrees to familiarise his Readers with his own, by _some general reflexions on the present situation of England_: these reflexions leave him no room to doubt, that _England_ was in 1779, _notwithstanding the national debt_, richer than she was at the beginning of this century;—richer, either in a fourfold, or in a double proportion, as the Reader is disposed to adopt the one or the other rate of population: whence it appears that the Author, in respect to his plan, does not affix any importance to the difference of opinions on this article.

_A more particular view of the subject_ furnishes him with fresh reasons, which seem to him sufficient to quiet the mind of the most suspicious creditor. It is, indeed, only by means of the _savings_ made, or daily to be made, upon eight pence (the exact proportion each individual is entitled to in the general revenue), that it has been possible to reach the summit of opulence, and that it is possible to be fixed there: but the Author seeks for such _savings_ in agriculture and industry, as cannot be misunderstood; he observes that the savings made in agriculture, have proved sufficient, in the course of a century, not only to discharge all the public burdens, but even to double the landed revenue; and he then enters into a detail of several objects, (all easy to be ascertained,) which seem to demonstrate a similar progress in industry.

Here our Author, beginning to feel himself on ground sufficiently firm, confesses that he sees nothing in the present situation of _England_, tending to justify the idea of a national bankruptcy, although the public news-papers often hint at the convenience of such a measure. The author even so far forgets himself, as to examine _seriously_, whether it would be profitable or unprofitable to effect the so much recommended _reimbursement_, _even on the supposition that the 238 millions which have been borrowed, and have disappeared, could find their way back to the Exchequer_.

After having presented the question under several points of view, our Author hesitates not to declare for the negative, and then endeavours to prove that a previous _thesaurisation_ which might have enabled the nation to go through the last war without laying any additional tax, would have done more harm than the new taxes can possibly have done.

The Author, become bolder because he meets with no contradiction when he is alone, (and indeed he is alone very often) undertakes to reconcile mankind to the taxes by means of a first decomposition of the impost; he gives up, it is true, one part of it as burdensome, (it is truly to be lamented that this part cannot be dispensed with; luckily it is the least); but he contends boldly for the other part, as a very precious resource for that portion of the people which best deserves to engage the cares of Government.

Notwithstanding all the precautions taken by the Author not to frighten his readers, there remains such a leap for him to clear, that he is seen, as it were on his knees, begging he may be permitted to try twenty times, if he cannot clear it in ten: in other words, he earnestly wishes that his work may not receive its final judgement before it has been perused to the end; and in fact, it is not impossible but that a detached proposition, the absurdity of which is striking when considered singly, may be found conclusive when successively brought near to all those that are to follow it.

An Editor owes more to the Public, than to any work, even such as he could wish to bring into some trifling repute: I think then, it is my duty (_in foro conscientiæ_) to declare, that it will not be till the Reader has perused fifty pages or more, that he will suspect the reason why the Writer has not announced in the very first, some singular opinion, which he meant insidiously to establish as it were step by step in his pamphlet; but, at length, we begin to have some notion of what we are to expect from a man who has been trying to wheedle us into a belief, that _taxes are a trifling evil;—that ~thesaurisation~ would be a very great one;—that a reimbursement is at best useless_;—and who afterwards modestly intimates, that some singularities may perhaps escape him _in the sequel_; as if it were possible to imagine any thing more singular than the three propositions I have just quoted.

Yet too much severity should not be used. Has the Reader been but amused with the part of the picture hitherto exposed to his view? Let him humour the Author in his little conceits. Who would exhibit for public entertainment, if he were not at liberty to draw up the curtain in his own way; if he had not a right to display, at every shifting of the scene, that part only of his curiosities upon which he meant for that instant to fix the eyes of the spectator?

But if the Reader, in spite of the different positions into which he has been attracted, has not observed the least alteration in the compass; if he has not been moved by the arguments with which he has been lured before he came to that part of the work—let him throw the piece into the fire; for the Author, of whom I do not pretend to imitate the circumspection, or adopt the fears, or justify the temerity, or share in the guilt, aims at nothing less than to induce _all Europe_ (all _Europe_!) to investigate,

_1st_,

Whether it could possibly cost _England_ more than 5 millions sterling, (_found once for all_) to secure _for ever_, in the most solid manner, the payment of the interest on a debt of 238 millions, that interest rated at 9 millions, of the same currency?

_2dly_,

Whether there be not, (without its being suspected), in the system of finance in _England_, some of those imperfections so well remarked, so fully, so bitterly criticised in that of _France_; and whether a national reimbursement be not the easiest of all the sports a Minister of finance can think of, to amuse society without serving it?

_3dly_,

Whether the possibility of a balance of trade, _always favourable_, be not as doubtful as the necessity of a national bankruptcy, and the advantage of a national reimbursement?

_4thly_,

Whether an equilibrium in all things (and every where), be not indispensable; and whether, to maintain or restore it, any great effort of imagination be required on the part of those who fancy they hold the balance?

_5thly_,

Whether the difference of prices be something or nothing; and whether more has been wanted by the _French_ than 66 millions _Tournois_ (_found once for all_), to secure _for ever_, the interest at _5 per cent._ on a national loan of 1,500 millions _Tournois_?

_6thly_,

Whether the monster of a competition (in point of trade) supposed unconquerable on account of the low prices with which it should be armed, be not as fantastical as that of a balance always favourable?

_7thly_,

Whether the most justifiable premium for exportation be any thing more than one piece of injustice, become necessary to counterbalance a great many others?

_8thly_,

Whether it do not result from the ever infallible and merely mechanical restoration of an equilibrium in all the prices, that the taxes are in themselves completely innocent;—whether there be more than one kind of taxation, which increases only by the exact amount of the tax, the whole mass of prices;—whether the effect of taxation be not trebled by all other imposts;—whether the most pernicious of them, (after the poll-tax), be not the tax on luxury;—and whether from the instant that all kinds of taxes, either judiciously or injudiciously contrived, have re-acted on every thing, the burthen of the national debt is not literally _null_ in all countries?

_9thly_,

Whether, _after monopoly_, credit be not that effect of wealth which increases most the price of every production, both of agriculture and industry?

_10thly_,

Whether a certain country, where smuggling has been prohibited under pain of the galleys, be not indebted to smuggling itself for one fifth of the products of her agriculture, which the merchant and trader turn to their advantage with as little scruple, as if they had not petitioned for the detestable law against the smuggler?

_11thly_,

Whether the absurdity of the general opinion, on the most efficacious means of establishing a profitable competition, in point of trade, be not clearly evinced, by the account of a strange revolution in _France_—a revolution, as indubitable as the two wars in 1755 and 1779?

_12thly_,

Whether the impossibility of the two supposed balances, constantly at the disposal of _England_ and _France_, be not proved, by the very facts adduced in both countries to establish the existence of those two monsters?—Whether that impossibility be not demonstrated by other facts as little equivocal; and whether it be not the interest of _England_ and _France_ to renounce the Idol, and solemnly abjure both its works and its pomps?

_13thly_,

Whether imports and exports be not a mere sport, as innocent as the game of tennis? A sport, nevertheless, which all Governments might turn to great profit, all Subjects to great advantage, and all States to an increase of power and wealth.

_14thly_,

Whether the generality of exports from _England_, at different periods, considered with regard to her foreign correspondence, do not demonstrate a kind of electricity, unthought of hitherto, though not unworthy of amusing the greatest politicians at their leisure moments?

_15thly_,

Whether the trifling jest of luxury be not equally as innocent as the diversion of exporting and importing; and how much the most fastuous, the most profuse, the most sensual of all monarchs, consumes, above the most avaricious of all his subjects?

_16thly_,

How much (not counting shillings and pence) _England_ has lost, when her right-arm, as her colonies were called, was lopped off; and how much (not counting shillings and pence) _Europe_ might lose by losing her sovereignty over both the _Americas_?

_17thly_,

Whether all that had appeared to the Author, as founded in reason and equity, do not finally prove (in spite of the general conspiracy of all Nations and all Ministers) to be strictly conformable to the most stubborn facts;—and whether it do not result from that mass of facts and reasons, that the Author’s assertion, the most interesting to mankind, (that is, to all Princes and their People) is not of the most irrefragable truth, and a truth the most easily brought within the reach of all the parts interested therein?

I, though merely Editor, shall venture still further;—I shall suppose the result of this combination of facts and reasons to be, that the means hitherto devised as the most proper to alleviate the burdens of the people, were the best devised to oppress them: What matters it to the people, provided they are to be oppressed no longer? What is the time past, but the baseless fabric of a vision?

I shall likewise suppose, that from those facts and reasons it should result also, that never was a decrease in the Prince’s revenue more effectually secured, than by the contrivances devised to increase it: What is it to the Prince, provided it be no longer possible to mistake the true means of enriching him?—Is it not the time to come, that should, above all, engross the attention of a Great Prince?

I shall again suppose, as another result, that it has been a mistaken notion, to imagine that the revenue of the People must be lessened, in order to increase that of the Prince:—What is that to the Prince—what is it to the People—provided both be now convinced, that it is not possible to enrich the one, either really or nominally, without enriching the other in the same manner, and in the same proportion?

I shall further suppose, that it should evidently result also, that in the Administration of the finances of any country, there is not, there has not been a single principle, nay, not a single idea worthy of the name: What is this to the Ministers who now hold that department?—Can they command what is past? And is it not the redressing of abuses, when discovered, that constitutes the true glory of a Ministry?

To crown the whole, I shall even suppose, that thence also should result, to a very insignificant individual of _America_, a little sprig of that _European_ shrub called Bay-tree:—What would that signify to all the Ministers, all the People, and all the Princes in _Europe_?—Will _America_ consume less _European_ goods, or will she produce less gold and silver, for having produced an idea?

ERRATA.

Page 149, last line, for 1581, read 1551.
158, l. 3, for _extravagance_, read _examination_.
194, l. 24, for _20 millions_, read _27 millions_.
198, l. 10, for 46_s._ read 46_s._ 8_d._
308, l. 13, for _will content_, read _will NOT content_.

Transcriber’s Note: The errata have been corrected, along with a few minor typographical errors.

CONTENTS.

Page

_Thoughts on the Mechanism of Societies._ 1

_A general View of the present State of Great Britain._ 3

_A more particular View of the same Subject._ 12

_Clear Savings of the Manufactories, Trade, and other Branches
of Industry._ 17

_Thoughts on Impost and Reimbursements. The Accumulation of
public Treasure considered as the Means of preventing Taxation._ 27

_On the grievous, but necessary Part of the Impost._ 36

_Of the Part of the Impost which is more useful than grievous._ 41

_Objections of another Kind against paying off the national Debt._ 51

_In what Manner the Interest of the national Debt will be probably
paid off._ 59

_Reflexions on the two foregoing Articles._ 76

_A Thought substituted to that of a Reimbursement._ 83

_General Balance of Trade in ~England~._ 93

_Reflexions on some private Balances of ~England~, both of the
favourable and unfavourable Kind._ 111

_Balance between ~England~ and ~Holland~._ 116

_⸺ between ~England~ and ~France~._ 123

_Further Reasons why all Ideas of a favourable Balance different
from that which I have supposed should be rejected._ 126

_Equilibrium necessary in all Things. Of the surest Means of
establishing it._ 130

_Various Causes of the Alterations in the Prices._ 137

_On the Influences of the national Prices on the Sales in foreign
Markets._ 151

_A necessary Principle of Trade considered both as direct and in
competition._ 159

_Reflexion on a Letter from ~Philadelphia~ inserted in the
~English~ News-papers._ 170

_Under what Point of View Premiums and other Encouragements of
Exportation may be considered._ 182

_On the Influence of the various Kinds of Taxation upon national
Prices._ 188

_On the Object of all Ministers of Finance in laying Taxes._ 192

_Effects of a general Poll-tax._ 193

_Effects of a Land-tax._ 196

_Reflexions on the foregoing System._ 203

_Effects of an Impost exclusively laid on Luxury._ 208

_Effects of a merciless Tax upon all Articles of the most general
Consumption._ 218

_Effects of compound Taxation._ 223

_Some Doubts on the supposed Impossibility of laying all Taxes on
Consumption._ 231

_Recapitulation of the foregoing Thoughts on Taxes, and their
Effects._ 242

_Further Considerations on the Necessity of a Correspondence
between the Prices of Agriculture and those of Industry._ 248

_Of a Cause little suspected of high Prices._ 257

_The happy Issue of a desperate Combat between Monopoly and some
private Interests._ 265

_Reflexions on a very strange Revolution in ~France~._ 270

_The pretended Balance of ~France~ in Point of Trade._ 291

_Exportations and Importations considered as a Game._ 308

_The nominal Value of the generality of Exports considered, with
Respect to its Effect on foreign Correspondence._ 338

_On Luxury._ 352

_On Colonies._ 372

_Preface in ~French~._ 399

THOUGHTS ON THE MECHANISM of SOCIETIES.

The first step that led to civilisation was, probably, some kind of slavery, whatever might be its nature. It seems impossible that the strongest and most industrious, following no other impulse than that of a consciousness of his superiority, should have come to the noble resolution of sharing generously, with the weak and idle, the fruits of his own labours and industry; nor can it be supposed that he could suffer any one, but himself, to pronounce on the prerogatives due to his courage and his abilities. But the most consummate knowledge of the means which may have paved the way to despotism, would throw but a faint light on the various subjects which I propose to take under consideration. The Epoch which it may be useful to dwell upon, is that, wherein the chiefs of the different states, being in no anxiety for an authority which is no longer contested, are the first to acknowledge its limits, and begin at last to be solicitous for the happiness of their subjects.

Such, in my opinion, is now the prevailing system all over Europe. The advantage of true freedom is fully felt, and its influence over all-commanding wealth universally acknowledged. But, in order to compare the inferences with the principles, to appreciate the measures by their effects, I shall fix upon that Nation whose avowed maxims, and best known circumstances, are most likely to furnish me with a train of arguments, without having recourse to any further suppositions but such as may appear necessary to clear up the facts that will be adduced in support of those arguments, and to render the consequences, to be deduced from them, more lucid and pointed.

I shall begin with the most interesting article in the present situation of affairs, namely, how far the wealth of a State, and the affluence of the Subject, may be affected by a NATIONAL DEBT?

_A general View of the present State of GREAT BRITAIN._

Mr. _Arthur Young_’s valuation of the Revenue, in his Political Arithmetic, is the result of his own private observations. Nothing ever occurred to me on the subject, that can come up with the minute accounts he gives us of the different provinces which he has visited in the north, south, and east of _England_.

I am ready to suppose, with that gentleman, that the joint revenue of _England_ and _Scotland_ may be computed, the landed produce and commercial profits included, at 110 millions sterling.

Mr. _Chalmers_ has published a work on the comparative resources of this country at different periods; a subject, it seems, difficult to touch upon without examining the state of population. This publication, according to my judgement, unites to such solid principles as the matter will admit, a great deal of propriety in the manner of applying them, and of drawing the inferences.

I willingly acquiesce, taking it for granted, with the author, that _Great Britain_ contains 9,350,000 inhabitants: but, at the same time, I apprise the reader, that I do not mean to take any advantage of a population more or less numerous; nor of a larger or smaller amount of the revenue. _Data_ I require; but such I will prefer as most nearly border on reality. There is not a State to which, with a difference in the numbers, one may not apply what I have to say concerning _England_, in those which I have adopted.

It appears from the estimates of Mr. _King_, who, in the reign of _William_ and _Mary_, proved himself as exact an observer as Mr. _Young_ has done in our days, that the produce of Land alone amounted then to 32,000,000; the latter calculator nearly doubles it, by rating it at 63,000,000. The Custom House books, the exactness of which cannot be disputed in one of the two facts they vouch to, (_the Burthen of the Shipping, and the Produce of Exportation_,) will shew that the former, from the year 1709 to 1773, progressively increased from 289,318, to 775,078 tons; and the years 1697, 1698, 1699, taken upon a medium and compared with 1771, 1772, and 1773, tend to prove that the gradual rise of the Exports has been still more considerable, being from 5,612,058_l._ to 16,027,937_l._ (Vide _Sir Charles Whitworth’s State of Trade_).

The foreign trade of _England_ seems therefore to have trebled since the beginning of the present century. We shall, in the sequel, state the reasons for supposing the commerce of other nations to have experienced the same progression.

The annual sum of 110,000,000, divided amongst 9,350,000 inhabitants, will produce daily little less than 8 pence per head, from the Monarch down to the meanest subject.

The observations I have made in several parts of _France_, from documents, it is true, no ways comparable to those of Mr. _Young_, could not justify my allowing so large a revenue to each individual in that kingdom. Yet _France_ and _England_ are the two richest and most flourishing countries in _Europe_.

Mr. _Young_ rates the clear profits of the Manufactories and Trade of _England_ alone at 37 millions; but as these two objects have apparently been trebled in regard to the exports, they cannot be supposed to have exceeded 12 millions in the reign of _William_ and _Mary_. To this let us add, in a proportion rather exaggerated, 5 millions for the landed and commercial revenues of _Scotland_; and it will appear, that, including the 32 millions of landed produce, as computed by Mr. _King_, the total amount of the revenue, land and trade of both countries included, could hardly be equal to 49 millions in the beginning of the present century. Now, from the same author, both kingdoms contained at that period 7,200,000 inhabitants, who, if admitted to a brotherly share, would have claimed only 4½_d._ each per day. I do not confine myself to a nicer exactness in the fractions: the object is not to calculate the precise instant of an eclipse; or at least, that of English prosperity appearing to me no ways probable, I think myself justified in neglecting every thing that might impede my operations, without influencing, in the least, my arguments.

Yet the wages of a journeyman were nevertheless rated then at 8_d._ per day: but let it be observed, that the number of working-days, when balanced with the holidays, sickness, and want of employment, those eight pence, distributed in the journeyman’s family, were often reduced to two; just as the sixteen pence, the present price of labour, according to Mr. _Young_’s Estimate, commonly amount to 4_d._ only, although the brotherly share of each man nearly amounts to 8_d._ If any one should be inclined to call this, injustice, let him consider that this very multitude of reductions from 4_d._ to 2_d._ and from 8_d._ to 4_d._ from _William III._ to this present time, has been the only means of accumulating by degrees that immense stock of 600 millions and upwards, manifestly laid out by the State in less than a century, and of which the National Debt makes a part. It is evident that if each individual, from _William III._ had only spent at the rate of 5_d._ per day, there would be no National Debt; but as each man of the nation could, generally speaking, and upon an equal proportion, lay out only 4½_d._ per day, the exceeding halfpenny must have long ago swallowed up the whole principal, the produce of former reductions.

Not one of the monuments erected since that period would now exist, nor would a single trace be left of the stocks to which the nation owes its present wealth: each portion of the national stock, every monument posterior to that era, prove as many persons reduced in the origin from 4_d._ to 2_d._ and then from 8_d._ to 4_d._ as either of the above two sums are oftener told in the value of such monument, or such stock as might be made the subject of inquiry. No country in the world can boast of a more respectable source of its opulence.⸺This opulence must either be given up, or the inconveniences that attend it be submitted to. In all parts of the world the labourer earns a livelihood, and very little above that: yet this very trifle is sufficient to make him happy, wherever he cannot be compelled to work without pay. He feels little, never takes the trouble of thinking, and leaves off work only to eat, make merry, or go to rest.—Is our lot better, with that fatal degree of reflection by which our whole life so often centers within a single point?

But is the nation in general as happy in our days as it was in those of _William III_? Have those causes, which tend to produce a decrease in the population, no manner of influence on the people’s happiness? And is not the reality of such causes more self-evident, than the pretended proofs adduced universally in favour of its increase?

Without entering into any dispute on the merits of the researches concerning population, which would lead to some truths perhaps unthought of hitherto; here follow the arguments which will occur to any man who stands not in need of a fixed and precise number of thinking heads, laborious hands, and well-digesting stomachs.

1st. It is not easy to conceive how, the landed revenue being nearly double, there should be a less number of husbandmen; for it is not with agriculture as we find it in several manufactories, where the invention of engines, and an alteration in the mode of working, can so advantageously supply the supposed decrease in the number of hands to work after the primitive manner. The valuable number of husbandmen seems therefore, in my opinion, placed beyond even the idea of a decrease.

2dly. It is no less impossible to imagine, that the number of sailors being nearly in a triple proportion to what it was, and the quantity of exports probably augmented on account of the burden of the outward-bound ships, a diminution should have taken place among that class of people, equally precious to the State, for establishing and ascertaining its wealth and strength, as the cultivation is indispensable to secure and support its very existence.

3dly. If, notwithstanding the acknowledged impossibility of proving a real decrease in the population, any one should obstinately admit of it, without positive proofs, it cannot at least be denied, that the produce of land and industry being nearly doubled, some means must have been devised, to do that with one hand which required two before. In this case it would be an easy matter to prove, that at the rate of the supposed depopulation, the few elect, who have escaped its causes, can boast of enjoyments in a threefold proportion to what they were before, notwithstanding the difference between the present impost and that which was paid in the beginning of this century: for, after all, the taxes under _William III._ amounted to four millions and a half and upwards, to be deducted from forty-nine millions standing revenue; the balance was therefore forty-four millions and a half, to be shared amongst 7,200,000 inhabitants, acknowledged by Mr. _King_; that is, very little above 4_d._ per day for each individual. Now, in the year 1779, for I have not yet exceeded that period, the impost was of about nine millions, which, taken from an income of 110 millions, left a surplusage of 101,000,000_l._ to be divided. If we adopt the supposed depopulation at its highest rate, the number of souls in _England_ is reduced to 4,500,000, each of whom has 1_s._ 3_d._ instead of 4_d._ allowed in the reign of _William_. It is then incontestible that the Nation is richer, but, I must own, not more happy; for they complain and are alarmed at this time, as was then the case.

It would be necessary to allow the supposition of an increase, if the intention were to shew that the people are now in a worse condition: nor could even this be deemed sufficient; for, admitting the existence of 9,350,000 inhabitants, it will appear, that, by the surplusage of 101 millions left, after the discharge of the taxes in 1779, each individual would be entitled to 7_d._ instead of the groat, in _William_’s reign.

The nation therefore in that year, in spite of its public debt, had almost doubled its wealth, rating the population at 9,350,000; and raised it four-fold, supposing the number reduced to 4,500,000 souls: and in either case, the riches of the State, as well as the national debt, arose and increased from the daily reductions of 4_d._ to 2_d._ and of 8_d._ to 4_d._ which, since the reign of _William_ to this day, have escaped from that all-devouring canker, commonly called LUXURY.

_A more particular View of the same Subject._

I wish to inquire more minutely, whether such facts as are known do not cast a sufficient light over all the others in general, to induce the most anxious and pressing creditor, and the nicest in point of proofs, to sleep in the utmost security, till some particular discovery pleads in justification of his alarms.

The present revenue of _England_ is stated at 63 millions; that of _Scotland_, at about 7 millions; collectively, 70,000,000_l._ It will be seen hereafter, that 65 or 75 millions would give the same essential results: I must however add, if any thing more should be wanted, that, in his estimate, Mr. _Young_ does not include the horses, hemp, flax, vegetables, fruit, nor hops, &c. all of which are reproduced annually, and augment considerably the number of exchanges held out to industry.

This landed revenue is produced by somewhat more than one third of the inhabitants.

It remains for us now to compute, at the lowest, the income produced by a second class of people, probably as numerous as the former, since not less than 1,500,000 persons of both sexes, and of all ages, are employed solely in preparing and working the wool. (See _Chalmers_’s Estimates.) But if the labour of 3,000,000 of husbandmen brings in 70 millions annually, why should that of an equal number of mechanics and handicraftsmen stand for less in the computation? To this reason let the following remarks be added.

Out of the 70 millions, 20 come to the share of the cultivators, either as the price of their labour, or for poor’s rates; 12, of these 20 millions, at least, are laid out for the produce of industry: bread, it may be observed, is comprised in the remaining 8 millions.

Let us state the number of proprietors at 2,000,000, including all their dependents, under any denomination whatever, women, children, chaplains, farmers, physicians, strollers, servants, &c. and their annual expenditure, in the rough produce of the land, at 18 millions, there remains only 32,000,000, which must be paid by the industry, already in advance, of the 12,000,000 exchange granted to the cultivator. It is obvious that I speak here only of that kind of industry which may be productive of exchangeable commodities, even against those of foreign produce.

Three millions of mechanics do not live more soberly, nor are they worse clothed, than the husbandmen: it may therefore be inferred, that out of the 20 millions, which they likewise receive for their labour, they lay out in the produce of industry, 12 millions, which, added to the 44 millions I have just mentioned, make, all together, 56 millions.

The manufacturers and principal traders, under every denomination, with their dependents of all kinds, complete the necessary number of the supposed population of 9,350,000 inhabitants, that is, 1,100,000 souls, themselves, the idle people supported by them, and their household included. Supposing their consumption of the rough produce to be proportionable to that of the proprietor, their expenditure will be 10,000,000; but then we must square by the same rule what they lay out for the produce of industry: 18 millions will be the sum, which, together with the other 56 millions, makes a mass of 74, instead of the 70,000,000 acknowledged in agriculture. Even this would not be sufficient, for reasons which I shall give in the sequel; but I shall observe, in the first instance, that were the population less numerous than we have supposed it to be, the same consumption of the rough produce is certainly inadmissible: but the landed revenue remaining the same, though procured by a less number of hands, it would then become necessary to estimate the amount of the labours of industry, effected by a number of handicraftsmen, equal to that of the cultivators, from the ascertained value of the latter’s productive labour.

I now return to the _deficit_ wanted for the security of a constant increase of wealth, which may at all times supply all the exigencies of the State.

The 18,000,000 consumed on the produce of industry, as granted to the principal traders, seem to raise them to 4,000,000 above their real value; I mean, that which is acknowledged in the produce of agriculture. It is not under colour of the supposed interest of the enormous principal, which gives motion to the manufactures and to the inland trade; it is necessary that industry should contribute its stock, as well as agriculture. The principals laid out, by the one or the other, are a matter of indifference to the state; it can speculate but on their produce, and pays exactly the interests, when it rates at the same value the result of the labours of both; but, to the 70 millions assigned as the indisputable produce of industry, (supposing a laborious man to be as good as any other equally industrious) we must add the intrinsic value of the rough materials on which industry hath wrought: This accession, which is also fair and equitable, will furnish, not only the 4,000,000, which annually exceed the home consumption just mentioned, but likewise all the millions necessary to secure, and mean while explain, this gradual increase, which it would be difficult not to trace in trade, as it is observable in the landed property. The latter is doubled within the space of 90 years; from whence we are forced to conclude, that the annual savings of the farmers, and owners living on the spot and cultivating their estates on the true principles of husbandry, have sufficed to discharge, not only the public burdens, and to defray the manuring expences, but also to double the produce and the general means in the most important article. It remains now to examine, whether the savings of the manufacturers, traders, and other supporters of industry, are as indisputable as those made by the cultivators.

_Clear Savings of the Manufactories, Trade, and other Branches of Industry._

The riches of a country, and its progress, are established and confirmed by its savings. Let us consider cursorily such as, from their self-evidence, admit of no dispute.

Ninety years ago the landed revenue of _Great-Britain_ was computed at about 35 millions. Let us suppose that 10 millions of specie were then required to give an effectual circulation to property of all kinds, (many people will think this by far too little[1]): but the revenue of landed estates, being now 70 millions, 20 millions at least, instead of the 10 millions requisite in the times of _William_ and _Mary_, should be allowed; and consequently a first clear stock of savings amounts to—10,000,000_l._

The consumer in those days was probably allowed, as is still the custom, a twelve-month’s credit upon half the articles purchased. Some of them took a longer time, if others a shorter one; but the stock of credit being then equal only to 35 millions, and now raised to 70 millions, we have clearly another mass of savings of—35,000,000.

Then, as in the present time, the preparing, manufacturing, and delivering, required six, twelve, or eighteen months. Let us suppose the year, upon an average of the slowness of one operation, and the celerity with which another was performed, we shall find again, in the difference of the flock, a third saving of 35,000,000.

If we suppose the value of manufactories, dwellings, warehouses, and all kinds of establishments, necessary to answer all the exigencies of a stock of industry and commerce of 35,000,000, to have amounted then to 25,000,000, we must admit that the objects in the same manner necessary to a stock of 70,000,000, do likewise present us with a fourth clear saving of—25,000,000.

In order to employ those hands by whose labour the annual sum of 35,000,000 was produced, 10,000,000 were probably sufficient; whereas 20,000,000 are now required. This shews a fifth clear saving of—10,000,000.

The annual returns from the _American_ islands was computed, 90 years ago, at about 330,000, (Sir _Charles Whitworth_’s State of Trade). Half of this produce was, in all likelihood, mortgaged to commerce; but it only supposed a stock of 3,000,000 at most lent, it matters not at what interest. The yearly produce of those colonies, added to that of the ceded islands, amounts, at present, to more than 2,900,000; more than one-third of which belongs to the trader, either as purchaser or mortgagee, and exhibits a sum of about 20,000,000, from which we shall substract the former 3,000,000; and considering (for a moment) those colonies as being foreign to the State, we shall find a sixth clear saving of—17,000,000, (the petition of the merchants in 1775, supposes it to be 30,000,000.)

The _English_ might perhaps be out of humour with me, were I to suppose that the continent of _America_, stands on the debtor side, for no more than 4,000,000; I shall therefore set down this article as—_Memorandum_.

Eighty years ago the amount of exportation from _England_, was estimated at 5,612,085_l._ In 1773, upon a medium of three years, the same was increased to 16,027,937: of the exceeding 9 or 10 millions, one part appropriated to the commerce in _Europe_, another to the _American_, a third to the _East-India_ trade, remain one, two, and sometimes three years, before they can be applied to the same objects. These 10,000,000 therefore suppose a stock more than double the same sum, and ought, in consequence, to be set down as a seventh clear saving of—10,000,000.

The _English_ ships, employed eighty years ago in carrying on the national trade, presented only a sum of 289,318 tons burden; the number of tons is now rated at 775,078. This increase of 485,760, together with the expence attending the fitting out, going and coming, produce a stock of 5,000,000, which must be doubled, by compensating the voyages of six and eight months, by those which require two or three years: here, therefore, appears an eighth clear saving of—10,000,000.

The proprietor of lands should not be considered in this light, in the use he makes of his yearly profits, but with respect to that part of his said profits which he lays out in cultivation: In regard to that share of his income which he invests in the funds, we must consider him as member, agent, and usufructuary of industry and commerce. Now, if we divide into three parts the whole of the national debt, one-third of which, if agreeable, we shall set down as foreign property, and the other two as belonging to the natives, we must of course acknowledge in the nation a new sum of clear savings, amounting to 180,000,000. This, in fact, should not be considered as a real increase of wealth, which it is at all times easy to appreciate, but as a proof that there exists, in the nation, an inestimable number of men, who are capable, in the space of ninety years, to effect a saving of 180,000,000, which government will have it in its power, within the same space of time, to appropriate to the exigencies of war, if potentates should continue in a warlike humour; or to lay out in objects of industry and cultivation, supposing an improvement of the revenue should be preferred to a state of warfare.

I shall not speak either of the difference which may be observed between the present state of the Royal navy, and the situation it was in at the beginning of this century, nor of the public monuments erected from that period, nor of the _India_ territories, nor of the Colonies remaining to _England_; provided the objection concerning the money due to foreigners is not repeated against me, as I am in hopes, by and by, to find some kind of compensation for it. I shall therefore confine myself here, to observe, that the above savings of all kinds of industry, some of them active, the others passive, all equally necessary, assisting each other mutually, no doubt, and finally amounting to 332 millions, have been effected in the course of 90 years; not with any sensible detriment to the landed property, since its revenue is doubled, nor to the disadvantage of the lower class of people, whose day-work brings in 1_s._ 4_d._ instead of 8_d._ nor to the prejudice of the fine arts, the rewards of which are perhaps fourfold, comparatively speaking; but solely according to the common course of things, _restrained, nevertheless, by a war of 30 years and upwards, out of the 90_, and by all the prejudices which the present generation begins to shake off, and which probably will be entirely abolished in the next.

It is no ways natural that the same causes will not be productive of the same effects. It may therefore, in my judgement, be reasonably concluded, that, within 90 years from this day, the landed revenue may be increased to double its actual value, and the population, trade, and industry, augmented in the like proportion, were even the national debt to amount then to 476,000,000, instead of the present 238,000,000, which excites so many complaints and loud murmurings.

In fact, let us suppose the debt arrived at a height so apparently formidable, _and the price of every thing proportionably increased_; would the former be less firmly established? Methinks that the very contrary is demonstrated by calculation, and that imagination cannot frame any rational objection thereto; at least I am free to confess, that all my efforts have not been able to produce any combination of probable circumstances, which might, in any supposition, justify the dread of that _application of the sponge_ which is so often held out as a resource that sooner or later must be adopted. Setting aside the infamy of such a measure, what advantage would accrue from it? Let it be adopted this moment in _London_, within three days the same step must inevitably be taken at _Paris_. A manœuvre of this kind would manifestly indicate either the most hostile intentions on the part of the _English_ government, or the project of overturning the constitution: the latter concerns _England_ alone; but in the former, _France_ is deeply interested. That power would be compelled to put itself in a situation to oppose an immense and free revenue, to a revenue equally immense without appropriation. Were, on the other hand, the _French_ to lead the way, _England_ must inevitably follow; and the unprofitable disgrace would be the portion of either of the two nations that should have set up the precedent.

But who will see without grief, 2,000,000 interest due to foreign States! 2,000,000 in specie carried out every year from _England_! _England_ yearly stript of 2,000,000 of her money!!! It will be seen hereafter in what that money consists. Yet with personal stocks so real, so considerable, so clear, what can prevent _Great Britain_ wresting from the foreigner, the share he claims in the national debt? The reason is obvious: the owner of landed property, or the farmer, who hopes to get six _per cent._ of the stock which he lays out upon his lands, instead of vesting them in the funds, envies not the foreigner who is glad to get 5, 4, or even 3 _per cent._ On the other hand, the merchant who trades by commission, and who has an opportunity of placing in the colonies his money at 5 _per cent._ interest, which is raised to 8 and 9 by his commissions for sale and purchase procured therewith, cannot wish himself in the situation of a stranger, whose stock in the _English_ funds brings him in, not above one half of that sum. It is still less an object of envy for the manufacturers, or owners of ships, who, from their manufactories or shipping, clear 10 or 12 _per cent._ of the monies laid out by them: the projectors of all kinds likewise flatter themselves, that the stock employed in their undertakings will produce 15 _per cent._ To sum up the whole in much fewer words, the prospect of 3 or 4 _per cent._ is not likely to tempt any one, who is in hopes of getting a two, three, or even four-fold interest. And in fine, the public funds, in any country whatever, will never be more or less than a lucky, _or rather a providential_, resource for those who have neither talent, power, nor leisure, to place their money to better advantage.

Now, would the abolishing of such a resource turn to the profit of the State, even supposing it to be effected by the justifiable means of a general reimbursement, were the case possible? I have too often reflected on the subject, too often revolved it over and over, I have viewed it under too many points, not to be sensible how far above my strength it is to discuss the matter in all its parts; I shall nevertheless venture to throw out some thoughts, which to me seem likely to render somewhat problematical a question which, at first sight, does not appear anyways difficult to resolve.

This question is not, whether it would be more advantageous to the State, not to have contracted a debt of 238 millions; but whether, since it is incurred, it would be profitable to discharge it. To doubt of the former, would be absurd: 238 millions thrown away almost entirely, within the space of 90 years, to forward destructive schemes, now no otherwise compensated than by a double devastation of the same kind, in a neighbouring kingdom, which by a treble population was able to support it, would certainly have been better bestowed, in both countries, either on the lands, whose revenues and number of cultivators would have increased, or in the improvement of the trade and arts, the stock and _chef-d’œuvres_ of which would thus have been multiplied. But the debt being once incurred, let us suppose that the 238 millions, which are vanished, should return into the Exchequer, would it be proper or not to pay it off? Thus stands the question.

_Thoughts on Imposts and Reimbursements.—The Accumulation of public Treasure considered as the Means of preventing Taxation._

The present impost in England, as the case is almost every where, consists of two parts widely different from each other: the one is certainly burdensome, but necessary;—of this hereafter. Might not the other, which concerns the national debt, however grievous it may appear, be considered as an useful establishment, so long as it shall be presumed that the increase of the national wealth, and its being divided amongst a greater number of individuals, is an advantage to the State; “or, in other words, until it shall appear evidently, that the welfare of the State requires that each of its members should lay out annually all that he is able to spend?” Before I attempt to deliver my opinion on these two subjects, I shall suppose the reimbursement possible, and resolved upon.

Nine millions of taxes, to pay off the annual interest of the debt, compose nearly one seventh of the landed revenue. These taxes, gradually laid on such objects of consumption as are supposed most likely to bear them, must have raised their price by one seventh, or something more; and that really, justly, and I think necessarily. The reader will perceive that I speak of the objects of taxation collectively, since some of them bring to the Exchequer twice their intrinsic value. The reimbursement being effected, would they fall back to their primitive value?—Yet this must be, in order to reap the pretended advantage; and this, in my opinion, would be of no manner of service. I shall endeavour to prove it; and then we shall examine whether the effect would not be more than doubtful.

It would be no easy matter to assign, for certain general facts, any other cause than the force of Nature; who, in the end, gets the better of all the regulations that thwart her. But let any one examine whether there be a single untaxed object, which, from 90 years back, or, to speak more to the purpose, from the origin of the national debt, is not raised more than one seventh, above the nominal value it had at that period. It is therefore sufficiently probable that the taxes have been felt, not only by the consumer of the taxed commodities, (according to the laudable intentions of Government) but also by the whole nation, by all the individuals that compose it:—And this, in my opinion, is equally just and unexceptionable.

Yet, it may be urged, that this increase in price is to be ascribed to the greater quantity of specie in circulation. Granted. In this case, a falling-off in the prices, accruing, as it is supposed, from a decrease in the taxes, which is represented as the effect of a reimbursement, cannot then take place:—besides, as the sequel will show, the taxes unavoidably bring in, one way or the other, even in the first year, the whole money required to pay the same. I shall argue on both suppositions. Is the increase in the prices owing to the taxation? It appears, evidently, that the taxes bring in the sums necessary to pay them, since they are actually and annually paid:—This money, then, must be withdrawn from the circulation, in order to lower the prices. Is this increase the effect of an augmentation of the specie? Then it will be necessary, in order to ascertain the primitive price, to recall from the circulation all the money which has been introduced since, and in spite of the taxes. Now if, in spite of the taxes, a country abounds with money, how should it not be so, supposing no duties had been laid?—How can the abolition of the taxes prevent the introduction of cash?—How will it come to pass, that the mass of specie being increased, the prices shall not be raised?—And if all of them augment, in a fair proportion, who will gain by it, who will suffer?

Be it supposed, nevertheless, for this is my main object, that the abolition of the taxes will lower the price of the mass of taxed commodities.—The same force of nature, which, without the intervention of any one, had raised the generality of untaxed objects up to the rate necessary to balance the imaginary value, which the tax added to the others, would operate in a contrary sense, and diminish, insensibly, the price of those articles which might have been overlooked:—What would be the advantage accruing to the State from a general and proportionable decrease?—Let us not think yet of the pretended profit that would result therefrom, in favour of trade, with relation to foreign competition: this matter requires a particular article. The only business now in hand, is to examine, whether, in case the reimbursement should be effected, this general decrease of prices, which I have just granted, could be effectually obtained.