Chapter XII: Book III: ========= (1)

CHAP. I.

_Result of the foregoing Inquiry applied to Britain.--Its present State, in what its Wealth consists, illustrated by a Chart, shewing the Increase of Revenue and Commerce_.

Having now taken a view, and inquired into the causes that have ruined nations that have been great and wealthy, from the earliest to the present time; having also inquired into the causes that naturally will operate where those did not, and that would, at a later period, have produced the same effect; it is now the business to examine how far and in what way the result of the inquiry applies to the British empire.

The power and wealth of Britain, according to the definition given at the beginning of this work, are founded not on conquests, extent of territory, superior population, or a more favourable soil or climate, or even in bravery; for in those it is but on a par with other nations.

The only natural advantages of Britain are, its insular situation and the disposition of the people, and the excellent form of its government.

From the two first have arisen that good government, commerce, and industry; and on those have arisen again a great naval power, and an uncommon degree of wealth.

In arms, it does not appear that England is so powerful by land, in proportion as in former times: her power must then be considered as a naval power, and that founded principally on commerce. {153}

--- {153} Our last brilliant achievements by land were under the Duke of Marlborough; but even then, with allies to assist, we were but a balance to France. Before the conquest, England seems to have been far below the level of most other nations, as a power by land. Soon after [end of page #191] she appears to have risen above France, and other nations, or they probably rather sunk; but, ever since England became formidable at sea, she has lost her superiority in the army; although she has never sunk under the level, and never, in any instance, were her armies beat when the numbers were equal to those of the enemy. -=-

{Here appears at page 192 the second chart, entitled

"Chart Representing the Extent, Population & Revenue -of the- PRINCIPAL NATIONS in EUROPE --in 1804--by W. Playfair"}

As such then we have only to examine the foundation on which she stands, and find in what she is vulnerable.

We must first begin with the interior situation, to follow the same order that has been attended to in the rest of the work.

Changes of manners, habits of education, and the natural effects of luxury, are as likely to operate on the British empire, as on some others which they have destroyed.

From the unequal division of property, there is perhaps less danger, but from the employment of capital there is more than almost in any other nation.

From the abuses of law and public institutions and _l'esprit du corps_, we run a very great risk; more indeed than under an arbitrary government or even a republic. These last are the dangers that most seriously threaten a nation living under a mixed government.

As to the produce of the soil becoming unequal to the maintenance of a people addicted to luxurious habits, we have much also to fear from that: the operation is begun, and its effects will soon be most serious: they are already felt, and very visible.

From taxation, unproductive and idle people, we have more to fear than most nations; and from an alteration in the manner of thinking, and persons and property leaving the nation, we have as much as any other nation, according to the degree of wealth that we possess; so that, upon the whole, the interior causes of decline are such as it is extremely necessary to guard against in the most attentive manner.

In respect to the exterior causes, we are exempt entirely from some, from others we are not; and, in one case, we have exterior causes for hope that no nation ever yet had.

The advancement of other nations, their enmity and envy, are full as likely to operate against this nation as against any other that ever existed; but as we owe none of our superiority to geographical situa- [end of page #192] tion like the Greek islands, the Delta of Egypt, and borders of the Mediterranean Sea, we run no risk of any discovery in geography, or in navigation, operating much to our disadvantage.

We are not so far advanced before other nations in arts as to have any great reason to dread that their advancement will be our ruin; but still we must allow, that a number of external causes may combine to bring us to their level, when the effects of our present wealth may soon operate in reducing us under it.

Since, then, commerce is the foundation of our wealth, and since our power, which is naval, is built upon commerce, let us begin with taking a view of its present situation.

The increase of the trade of Britain to foreign parts, within these last fifteen years, though a very natural effect of the causes that have operated during that period, is not itself a natural increase, because the causes that produced it are uncommon, temporary, and unnatural.

The East and West India trades have been both lost to France and Holland. The French, before the revolution, had a greater share of the West India trade than ever we had, and they could undersell us in foreign markets.

The Dutch and French together had a very great share of the commerce of the East; this partly accounts for the rapid increase of English commerce since they lost theirs. Besides, the French nation itself, which formerly consumed scarcely any English manufactures, and supplied Germany, and many parts of Europe, with its own, has been employed for several years in consuming its manufactured stock, eating up its capital, and ruining its own manufactories; so that France itself, Germany, and a great portion of the continent, have been obliged to apply to Britain, both for manufactures and colonial produce, as well as for the goods that come from India.

Add to this, that capital on the continent of Europe has suffered an unexampled diminution, from a variety of causes. A great part has been consumed in France, and in all the countries into which her armies have penetrated, particularly in Holland; and that confidence, [end of page #193] which serves in place of capital, has been impaired in all countries, and ruined in many.

It has already been shewn that the want of capital prevents a poor nation from supplying itself, and furnishes a rich one with the means of supplying it, and, as it were, extorting usury from it by giving credit. The misfortunes of the continent had, by this means, all of them a direct tendency to advance the commercial prosperity of England; but still the matter does not rest even here, for the real capital that fled from the continent of Europe has, in part, taken refuge in England. We have risen, (for the moment,) by their depression; and though the advantage will be of some duration, yet we ought not to consider it as permanent. {154}

Those causes have operated, as indeed might be expected, in a most powerful manner, but that operation has already begun to cease. In such uncommon and unexampled circumstances as the present, it is impossible to forsee =sic= what may happen, yet it is scarcely possible to suppose things will remain as they are. Terror and alarm are too painful to continue their action long on the human mind; and even if the cause were not diminished, the effect would become less violent with time and custom. Again, we are not to suppose, that such times as those of 1793 and 1794 are ever to return, therefore the alarm will be diminished, new capital will rise up, and, as security of private property is now understood to be the basis of all wealth and prosperity, confidence will be restored by degrees.

The increase of trade is not then to be expected from the same causes that have of late operated with so rapid and powerful an effect: on the contrary, they may be expected so far to cease, as to occasion a diminution of our exports.

This will, however, be counteracted by some circumstances, while others will tend to augment the violence of its effects.

The trade with the American States and with Russia increase, from

--- {154} As one proof of capital taking refuge in England, the sudden rise of stock, during the first three years of the French revolution, may be adduced, without fear of being contradicted as to the fact, or the assigned cause controverted. [end of page #194] -=-

no temporary or fallacious cause. In the former country, population very rapidly increases, and, in the latter, wealth and civilization, which have a similar effect {155} upon the wants of a nation. These are in favour of a manufacturing country, like England.

These two are not only, then, permanent, but augmenting causes for our commerce; {156} they are causes that augment rapidly, and may, with proper care, be carried to a great extent.

The superiority in the West India trade is so far of a permanent nature, that France will never again be a formidable rival there. St. Domingo is not only lost, but probably lost for ever, while it is expected that Britain may retain her islands. This trade, then, may be set down as permanent; that is to say, that there does not seem to be any immediate cause for its decline; {157} and the government of this country is sufficiently aware of consequences not to neglect taking every precaution possible.

The East India trade does not, indeed, appear equally secure. There we are powerfully rivalled by the Americans, and the merchants of other countries; but, on the other hand, the demand for the produce of Asia is augmenting rapidly all over the continent of Europe; so that perhaps we may be able to maintain our ground, even though other nations regain part of the trade they have lost.

To remain, then, in the situation in which we are, with respect to

--- {155} The great augmentation of fine fertile territory, in America, will retard the progress of manufactures and commerce in that country, by employing the capital and attention of the inhabitants on agriculture. This may be the case for half a century, and, if England improves, the circumstances may continue to operate in favour of British manufactures for many centuries to come.

{156} The ports in the Black Sea add a new district to the commercial world, which, in course of time, must greatly increase the demand for such articles, as a civilized people consume. The fineness of the climate and of the country will enable the inhabitants to gratify the taste which civilization will bring along with it.

{157} It would be quite foreign to the end of this inquiry to examine into the interior state of the West India islands, or as to their continuing subject to Great Britain. This is entirely a political affair, unconnected with commerce, though its effects on it would be prodigious. [end of page #195] -=-

foreign trade, we must exert ourselves; those external causes that have forced trade upon us, for these last fifteen years, being but of a temporary nature.

In order to be more sensible of this necessity, let us consider a few other circumstances.

The wealth of England, which was the envy of Europe, even previous to the American war, in which we stood single-handed and alone (having the three most powerful maritime nations against us, and none to take our part) has now become more conspicuous, and much more likely to excite envy.

Not only the situation of Britain is much more exalted, but the other nations feel a comparison that is infinitely more humiliating; add to this, that old attachments, and a regard to the laws of nations, and to a balance of power in Europe, are much enfeebled, or rather nearly done away.

Britain has alone, for some time, stood forward to resist the innovations and power of France; and, after having at first subsidized every nation that would fight in the common cause, it has alone maintained the common right itself, thereby adding a double humiliation to those who wanted means of assisting, or whose courage had failed.

France, with all its acquisition of territory and alliance, with all that influence over neutral nations, which terror of its arms inspires, will never cease to combat the prosperity of England. Some other nations, through envy or shame, stimulated by a hope of partaking in the wealth that England loses, will either sit passive or assist. {158}

The East India trade is that which excites the greatest portion of envy, and it will be difficult to resist its effects. This superior degree of envy is occasioned by three principal causes:

The splendid establishments of the East India company, its fleets,

--- {158} Gratitude, some will say, may prevent this; but nations have no gratitude, they only know their interest, and nothing retrospective is any motive for action. We need not search into remote periods for proofs of this, see Holland, Spain, Russia, &c. during the latter part of the last war. [end of page #196] -=-

and the fact that it is the greatest commercial company that does now, or ever did, exist, constitute the first cause, not only for envy, but for a wish to participate in the trade.

The second cause arises from the extent of our possessions, the immensity of the territorial revenues, and the evident injustice of a company of merchants becoming sovereigns, and holding the ancient princes of the East, and the successors of the Great Mogul, as tributary vassals. {159}

It is in vain that we say the people are happier than they were before we did them the honour to become their masters. Whether this is true or not, there is no means of proving it, besides there can be no right established by London merchants to force the inhabitants of Hindostan to become happy, whether they will or not.

The same pretence has been used by the French, in subduing Flanders and Brabant, in governing Holland and Switzerland; but they have not been able to obtain credit. The regular governments, who partitioned Poland, have pretended the same thing; and our slave-merchants and planters give very positive assurances that the negroes toiling on the West India plantations are much happier than they were in their own country; yet, in defiance of all this cloud of witnesses, there is something in the human breast that resists and rejects such evidence; evidence doubtful, on account of the quarter from whence it comes, and the interests of the witnesses, as well as con-

--- {159} However we may look upon this, other nations certainly see the matter as iniquitous and unjust; and it is well known with what feelings such a belief is entertained.

Though the revolutions in Farther Asia have not made any part of the basis of our inquiry, yet it is impossible, having mentioned the Mogul empire, not to notice its rapid and terrible fall. In 1707, only ninety- eight years ago, the Great Mogul ruled over a country equal in extent, and little inferior in population, to France, Spain, Germany, and England. His revenues amounted to thirty-two millions sterling, which, at that time, was nearly equal to the whole revenues of all the monarchs of Europe. He is now circumscribed to a territory less than the smallest county in England, and is the vassal at will of a company of English merchants, who, with all their greatness, do not divide profits equal to one week of his former revenues! [end of page #197] -=-

trary to the natural feelings of beings endowed with the power of reason; at variance, also, with an opinion of a very ancient origin, "that coercion and force are enemies to enjoyment."

In defiance, then, of our assertions, the other nations of Europe will and do view this acquired territory with anger, as well as envy; and, though it is true, that, out of the immense revenues that arise to the company, they divide little profit, though their debts are annually augmenting, yet individual Englishmen, it must be admitted, bring home great fortunes.

This fact is not to be denied, and is so much the worse, that though a government even of merchants may be supposed to obtain revenues fairly, individuals, who rapidly acquire great wealth are always supposed to do it by extortion or unfair means. {160}

The third cause for envy is of great antiquity. The commerce of the East, from the earliest ages, has been that which has enriched all the nations that ever possessed it; and, consequently, has been a perpetual cause of envy and contention, as we have already seen, in its proper place. For all those reasons, not one of which we can remove entirely, the East India trade is a particular object of envy; and, unless great care is taken, will entail the same danger on this country, as it has on all those that ever possessed it. Tyre and Sidon, in Syria, Alexandria, in Egypt, Venice, Genoa, the Hans Towns, and Portugal, have all been raised and ruined by this trade, which seems to

--- {160} So far back as 1793, Mr. Dundas estimated the sums remitted by individuals at an annual million; add to this, plunder arising from war, (which is become as natural a state in India as peace,) and we shall see that now the revenues and establishments are nearly doubled. The following will not be an unfair estimate:

Private fortunes remitted in 1793 L. 1,000,000 Average ditto arising from years of war, the plunder of Seringapatam, &c 300,000 Increase remitted home since, in proportion to revenue 700,000 ____________

Remitted now by the same description of men L. 2,000,000

Besides what is remitted home, those servants of the company expend immense sums in the country, living there in the greatest luxury. [end of page #198] -=-

have been the cradle and the grave of most of those nations that have become rich and powerful by the means of commerce.

Our West India wealth, though derived from a source still more, or at least equally, impure, and though not inferior in amount, is, for several reasons, not the cause of so much envy. It is not confined to a company, and therefore the splendour and ostentation that, in the case of the Asiatic trade, occasion envy, do not exist in that to the American islands.

Our monopoly is by no means so complete, which has a double effect in our favour; for, besides preventing others from envying us so much, it prevents them from condemning us so severely.

The same nations that see, in its full force, the injustice of subjecting the inhabitants of the East, in their own country, in a way that, at the worst, is not very rigorous, join cordially in robbing Africa of its inhabitants, to make them slaves in America, in a way, that, at the best, is very rigorous.

Such are the baneful effects of sordid interest acting on the mind of man! But our business is not here to investigate opinions, but their result; and, in the present instance, we find that to admit participation in criminality is the only way to avoid envy and offence.

The third cause for envy is likewise wanting. The commerce with the West Indies is but of a recent date, and no nation has ever owed its greatness or decline to that single source. {161} It is not like the Asiatic trade, a sort of hereditary cause of quarrel; a species of heirloom, entailing upon the possessor the envy and enmity of all other nations.

The envy occasioned by the West India trade is farther diminished by the circumstance that the plantations have been raised with the money of the persons by whom they are possessed; and that if they had no original right to the soil in its barren state, the cultivation at least is owing to their capital and industry.

The most solid and secure portion of our trade is that which con-

--- {161} France was the nation that, before the revolution, gained the most by this trade; indeed, no nation has, to this date, gained so much as it did. -=-

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sists of our manufactures at home. In those, though we excite envy, we excite no other of the hateful passions. Emulation is natural, and admiration is unavoidable, on seeing the vast progress that arts and industry have made in this country; so that England is absolutely considered as the first country in the world for manufactures.

This cause of greatness and wealth operates in a more uniform and durable manner; though, like others, it has its bounds, yet the nature of them is not easily ascertained.

In this there are two things essential,--the procuring a market, and the means of supplying it. We have always yet found the means of supplying every market we have got; but we have not always been able to extend our market so much as it might have been wished.

America and Russia offer new markets, as has already been observed, but, to extend our old markets, we must either reduce the price, improve the quality, or extend the credit, and invention is the only means by which these things can be done; and there is no possibility of knowing where to set bounds to invention, aided by capital and the division of labour. We are, however, not to forget that priority in point of time being one of the causes of a nation's rise, and being of a nature to be destroyed in the course of years, the superiority we enjoy may leave us, as it did other nations in former times.

When a country produces the raw material, and labour is cheap, and the art established, we might suppose the superiority secure; but it is not. The cotton trade was first established in the East Indies, where the material grows, where the labour is not a tenth of the price that it is in England, and the quality of the manufactured article is good; yet machinery and capital have transplanted it to England. But the same machinery may give a superiority, or at least an equality, to some other country; it is, therefore, our business to persevere in encouraging invention, by the means that have hitherto been found so successful. {162}

--- {162} The law of patents, and the premiums offered by the Society of Arts, suggest improvements, and reward them when made. To those, to the security of property, and nature of the government, we chiefly owe the great improvements made in England. -=-

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The most necessary thing for our commerce is the support of mercantile credit, without which it is in vain to expect that trade will be carried on to any great amount. In 1772, when a great failure occasioned want of confidence, the exports of the country fell off above three millions, but its imports fell off very little. {163} In 1793, when the internal credit of the mercantile people was staggered, precisely the same effect was produced. These are the only two instances of individual credit being staggered to such a degree, as to prevent mercantile men from putting confidence in each other; and they are the only two instances of any very great falling off in the exports in one year, except during the American war, when the chief branches of trade in the country were cut off or diminished.

The falling off, in exports, in 1803, which was very great indeed, (being no less than one-third of the whole,) was not occasioned by the same cause, but appears to have been owing to three others of a different nature.

First, the French had actually shut us out from a great extent of coast, and this occasioned a diminution of exports, which will, in part, be done away, when new channels of conveyance are found out. It will nevertheless operate in causing some diminution, as circuitous channels render goods more difficult to be introduced, and consequently dearer to the consumers.

The second cause appears to have been, the uncertainty of our merchants where to send the goods, and who to trust, as the fear of the extension of French power took away confidence, and produced a sort of irresolution, which is always hurtful to business.

The third cause of the diminution of trade, no doubt, arose from the cessation of that alarm about property, that has been described as having occasioned so much to be sent from the continent to England. In other words, it is the return of the pendulum which had vibrated,

--- {163} This is a sort of paradox: when money became scarce, the nation bought nearly as much as ever, but sold less. This is not the case with individuals, and, at first sight, does not appear natural. -=-

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through a temporary impulse, beyond the natural perpendicular. Had there been no revolution in France, and had it not been conducted on the principles it was, our trade could not have augmented so fast as it did; but a falling off of fifteen millions in one year is too much to be ascribed to that cause alone. An examination of the branches that did fall off will elucidate this.

The commerce with the United States of America is one of those that has fallen off, and is the only one that does not appear to be directly connected with these causes. There are some reasons, however, for thinking that it had an indirect connection with them.

Whatever interrupts our connection with the continent of Europe, or renders it unsafe, has, in some degree, the same effect with a stagnation of credit at home. This has taken place; and as it of course affected every branch of trade, that with America felt the blow amongst the rest, and, indeed, more than in proportion; for, as there is no course of exchange with any town in America, and as the credits there are long, the exportation to that country suffers in a particular manner when there is any heaviness in the money market here. Thus it was that, in 1772, the American exports suffered a diminution of two millions from the stagnation; and, in 1793, of rather more than half a million. In the former case, the American trade seems alone almost to have suffered, and, even in the latter case, it fell off more than in its just proportion.

It has been observed, that the improving our manufactures at home is the most secure support of our foreign trade, which chiefly depends on superior skill, industry, and invention, the wages of labour being greatly against us. We shall consider by what stability of tenure we hold that advantage.

The nation or individual that proceeds first in improvement is always uncertain how much farther it can be carried; those who follow, on the contrary, know what can be done, and therefore act with certainty and confidence. As to individuals, those who are the foremost in improvement have great difficulties to encounter; they seldom can procure the pecuniary aid necessary, and always do so with great difficulty; whereas, those who copy, without half their merit, or, [end of page #202] perhaps, without any merit at all, meet with support from every quarter. {164}

From this it is very evident, that the nation the farthest advanced in invention has only to remain stationary a few years, and it will soon be overtaken, and perhaps surpassed. Holland, Flanders, and France, were all originally superior, in the arts of manufacturing most goods, to England; and, indeed, it is no great length of time since we obtained the superiority over Holland in several articles of importance, and in particular where machinery was wanting. If it were necessary, it would not be difficult to give examples, to shew with what eagerness those who imported inventions were taken by the hand, on the bare probability of success, while the inventors of machines, and of methods of manufacturing entirely new, and of still more importance, were left to grope their way, and, until crowned with success, rather considered as objects of pity than of praise or admiration. {165}

It is not then altogether by a sure or lasting tenure that we hold this superiority of manufactures. We have examined several other sources of wealth, and the general conclusion is, that, without care and atten-

--- {164} Mr. Arkwright, who produced the cotton-spinning machine, underwent great difficulties for many years; as also did Mr. Watt, the ingenious and scientific improver of the steam-engine; and, had not good fortune thrown him in the way of Mr. Boulton, a man of fortune and resource, and himself a man of genius, he probably must have languished in obscurity, and the nation remained without his admirable invention. The profits derived from the spinning-machine may, at first sight, appear the greater national advantage of the two; but it is not so in reality, for the spinning-machine only manufactures a raw material, brought from another country, cheaper than before; whereas, the steam-engine enables us to obtain raw materials from our own soil cheaper; a thing more important, more permanent, and of which we were more in want: besides this, the steam-engine is extending the scope of its utility every day; whereas, the spinning machines can go little farther. But to leave this digression, which is not altogether foreign to the purpose, and return to the facility with which inventors are followed, it is a fact, that in almost every country in Europe, money can be got by any adventurer who will propose to establish either a cotton spinning machine, or a manufactory of steam- engines; and it is a fact, that immense sums have been, and are still given, for those purposes.

{165} Slitting-mills, saw-mills, the art of imitating porcelain, and of making good earthen-ware, and paper, together with a vast number of other inventions, were imported from Holland; in every one of which we have gone beyond the Dutch, just as they got the better of the Flemings in the art of curing herrings. Priority of invention is not then a permanent tenure. -=-

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tion, this nation cannot be expected long to maintain its superiority over others, in the degree it at present enjoys.

The American market, {166} and the Russian (in a smaller degree,) however, hold out a prospect of increased commerce to us, from external causes, that we cannot flatter ourselves with in the internal ones. It is to those we must look, and to those only, for the extension of the sale of our manufactures; but, even in this case, we must use efforts, for it is very seldom that a good end is effected by accident, or without a view towards its accomplishment.

Having now taken a view of the situation of this country, and seen that, though it is not likely to be deprived of its commerce by conquest, like Babylon, Tyre, or Alexandria, or by a new discovery in geography and the art of navigation, like Venice and Genoa; though, indeed, it has no great appearance of sharing the fate of Spain, Portugal, or Holland, yet there are other causes that may stop its career. If it is exempt from the dangers they laboured under, it is subject to others from which they were free.

We have already examined the effect of taxes and national debt on the industry of a country, even whilst augmenting in wealth; but we have not examined what that effect will be when a country comes to be on a level with other nations that do not labour under the same burthens.

There is no possibility of standing long still with a burthen on the shoulders, it must either be thrown off or it will become a cause of decline. Let us endeavour to point out methods by which that may be averted, or at least procrastinated. In doing this, we are either exposing our ignorance and presumption, or doing a signal service to our country.

--- {166} The American exports from this country consist almost entirely in manufactures; we neither supply that country with East or West India produce. The Russians are aspiring at possessions in the West Indies, and, no doubt, will succeed; they are advancing still more rapidly in power than the Americans are in population. It was only in 1769, (not forty years ago,) that the first Russian flag was seen in the Mediterranean Sea, and now Russia stands fair to be sovereign of a number of the Greek islands; and, at any rate, by the Dardanelles, to carry on a great commerce. What may thirty years more not effect with such a country, and such a race of sovereigns? -=-

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The load must be taken off, or it will crush the bearer; but how this is to be done is the difficulty. If our debt is paid off, the capital will go to other nations, for it will not find employment amongst ourselves; and this will reduce the nation, and raise others. If it continues, we sink under it; and, if we break faith with the creditors, it destroys confidence for ever; we can no longer give law, by means of our capital, to the markets in other nations, and we probably overturn the government of our own.

Amongst the _exterior_ causes of decline that are general, none applies so completely to Great Britain as that of the envy and enmity, occasioned by the possession of colonies we have settled, or countries we have conquered.

The wealth of Britain and its power arise from agriculture, manufactures, commerce, colonies, and conquests. The envy they excite is not, however, in proportion to the wealth that arises from them, but rather to the right we have to possess them, and the consequent right that others have to contest the possession.

Improved agriculture has never been a source of enmity amongst civilized nations, though it has been an object of conquest when an opportunity presented itself.

Manufactures, the great source of our wealth, are, in a certain degree, beyond the reach of our enemies. Our greatest consumption for them is amongst ourselves, and if we did not export to any part of the world, except enough to procure materials, we should enjoy nearly all that we now do. Our wealth would not be very materially diminished, though our naval strength would. The means of destroying our manufactures is not then very easily to be found.

The commerce with other nations, our enemies, or rivals, have a more effectual means of diminishing, by the laying on duties on our manufactures, and augmenting those duties when the goods happen to be carried in English vessels; but still the advantage we enjoy in this competition is great.

Not so with our colonies and conquests. The whole imports from the East Indies, from 1700 to the present day, have only amounted [end of page #205] to 165,000,000 L. and our exports, during the same period, to 83,000,000 L. while our total exports have amounted to 1,486,000 L. during the same period. {167}

There would be much affectation, and little accuracy, in attempting to make any thing like a strict comparison between the relative proportions of the wealth procured by general trade, and that procured by trade with India. The exports amount to about one-nineteenth part of the whole; and, perhaps, as they are manufactured goods, to about one-tenth part of the whole manufactures of the country exported: but the manufactures exported are not equal to one-third part of those consumed at home, so that not above one-thirtieth part of our manufacturers are maintained by the trade to India.

In 1793, when the charter of the company was renewed, the India- budget stated the private fortunes acquired and brought home, at one million annually: that has probably increased since then; but it was at that time greater than it had been before: if, then, we take the annual arrival, since the year 1765, at one million, it will make forty millions, which, compared with the balance of trade during that period, amounts to about one-sixth part of the balance supposed to come into the country.

How much of our national debt might be set down to the account of India, is another question. By debt contracted, and interest of debt paid, during the same period, we have disbursed the sum of 1,100,000,000 L. which is equal to more than twelve times the whole of the property acquired by our India affairs, supposing the 45,000,000 L.

--- {167} Comparison between the total foreign trade of the country, to that with the East Indies only, for 104 years.

Total Exports. Total Balance Exports to India. in our favour. From

1700 to 1760, L540,000,000 L249,000,000 L18,000,000

1760 to 1785, L370,000,000 L101,000,000 L25,000,000

1785 to 1805, L576,000,000 L142,000,000 L40,000,000 ____________ ____________ ____________ L1,486,000,000 L492,000,000 L80,000,000 ____________ ____________ ____________

[Transcriber's note: L=GBP/Pounds Sterling.]

This is about a nineteenth part of our foreign trade, and the balance is greatly against us. -=-

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remitted, to be all gain, together with one-half of the 83,000,000 L. which surely is allowing the gain at the highest rate for both. {168}

Supposing, then, that the wars that India has occasioned have cost (or the proportion of the debt they have occasioned) one-sixth part of the whole of our debt, and that the profits on goods to India, and private fortunes, came into the public treasury, there would still have been a great loss to the state; but this has not been the case, the interest of the debt has been levied on the people, and will continue to be so, till all is paid off; which, according to the plan of the sinking fund, will be in thirty-five years, so that we shall have about 750,000,000 L. more to pay, {169} supposing we have peace all that time, and continue to possess India.

There is something very gloomy in this view of national affairs, and yet there is no apparent method of making it more pleasing.

It is, on the contrary, very possible, that as Malta, on account of its being supposed the key to India, has cost us 20,000,000 L. within a few years, that, in less than thirty-five years, it may cost us _something_ more; and, it is not by any means impossible, that, before that period, we may either lose India, or give it away; on either of which suppositions, the arithmetical balance of profit and loss will be greatly altered, to our farther disadvantage.

On the possessions in India, and the complicated manner in which our imports (again exported) affect the nation, a volume might be written, but it would be to very little purpose, in a general inquiry of this sort. It is sufficient to shew here that the wealth obtained by that channel is not of great magnitude, in comparison either of the

--- {168} The nearness of the balance of trade, to the amount of debt contracted, will naturally excite attention, but it appears merely accidental, and to have not any real connection.

Debt borrowed L500,000,000
Interest paid L590,000,000
______________
L1,090,000,000

[Transcriber's note: L=GBP/Pounds Sterling.]

{169} Let the future profits and expenses be set against each other, like the last. -=-

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wealth acquired by foreign trade, or by our industry at home; and that, at the same time, we see that it excites more envy and jealousy than all the rest of the advantages we enjoy put together.

Badly as men act in matters of interest, and much as envy blinds them in cases of rivalship, yet still there is a certain degree of justice predominant in the mind, that admits the claim of merit and true desert. Every person, who has heard the conversation, or read the opinions of people in other nations, on the wealth and greatness of England, will allow, that, as commercial men, and as manufacturers, we are the wonder of the world, and excite admiration; but, concerning our dominion over India, and our plantations in the American islands, foreigners speak very differently.

In order to bring down a nation, that has risen above its level, there is followed a system of enmity in war, and rivalship in peace.

The Portuguese seized on a lucky opportunity to undermine and supplant the Venecians and the Genoese, who had long been the envy of all nations, for the wealth they obtained, by the monopoly of the trade to India. The Dutch soon rivalled the Portuguese in trade, and the Flemings in manufactures; and, indeed, there is no saying in how great a variety of ways the superiority of a nation may not be pulled down.

England, commencing later than any, has now obtained her full share of the commerce of the East, and of manufactures; but the nations that envy the wealth of others have always several great advantages. The nation that is highest treads in discovery, invention, &c. a new path, and is never certain how far she can go, nor how to proceed. Those who follow have, in general, but to copy, and, in doing that, it is generally pretty easy to improve. At all events, a day must arrive when the nation that is highest, ceasing to proceed, the others must overtake it.

As the nation that is farthest advanced is ignorant of the improvements that may be made, it does not feel what it wants; and, like a man in full health, will give no encouragement to the physician. The countries that follow behind act differently; and they generally, in order [end of page #208] to protect their rising manufactures, impose duties on similar ones imported; thus preventing a competition between old established manufactures, and those recently begun.

So far as priority of settlement, or of invention, give a superiority to a nation over others, the equalizing principle acts with a very natural and evident force; but, when the manners and modes of thinking of a people have once taken a settled turn, in addition to their proficiency in manufactures, it does not appear easily to be altered.

The Germans excelled at working in metals, and possessed most of the arts, in a superior degree to any other people in Europe, a few centuries ago. In some arts they have been surpassed by the French, in more by the Dutch, and in nearly all by the English. {170}

Conquests and colonies are wrested from nations suddenly and by force; arts and manufactures leave them in time of peace, silently and by degrees, without noise or convulsion; but the consequences are not the less fatal on that account; nor, indeed, is the effect slower, though more silent. Though colonies or conquests pass away at once, such changes only take place after a long chain of causes have prepared the way for them; whereas, manufactures are perpetually emigrating from one country to another: the operation, though slow and silent, is incessant, and the ultimate effect great beyond calculation.

A good government, and wise laws, that protect industry and property, and preserve, in purity, the manners of the people, are the most difficult obstacles for a rival nation to overcome. Prosperity, which is founded upon that basis, is of all others the most secure. There are sometimes customs and habits that favour industry, the operation of which is not perceptible to those who wish to imitate and rival successful and wealthy nations.

In general, it is not to be expected that the southern nations can come in competition with those living in more northerly climates in

--- {170} The individual German workmen have not been excelled by the workmen of any other nation, but the German nation itself has been outdone. -=-

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those manufactures, where continued or hard labour is necessary. Nature has compensated the inhabitants of such countries for this incapacity, by giving them a fine climate, and, in general, a fertile soil; and, when they do justice to it, they may live affluent and happy. But, since industry and civilization have got into northern countries, it is impossible for the southern ones to rival them in manufactures.

It would be impossible for any people living on the banks of the Nile, where the finest linen was once manufactured, to rival the cloths of Silesia, or of Ireland: as well might we think to bring back the commerce with India to Alexandria by the Red Sea.

The fine manufactures of India, notwithstanding the materials are all found in the country, the lowness of labour, and the antiquity of their establishment, are, in many cases, unable to keep their ground against the invention and industry of Europeans. The art of making porcelain- ware, from a want of some of the materials, has not, in every respect, equalled that manufactured in China; but in everything else, except material, it excels so much, that the trade to that country in that article is entirely over.

Many of the finest stuffs are nearly sharing the same fate, and they all probably will do so in time. Those whom we hope to surpass are determined to remain as they are, while Europeans aim at going as far in improvement as the nature of things will allow.

But the nations that follow others in arts are not always confined to imitation, though we have seen that even there they have a great advantage. It frequently happens that they get hold of some invention which renders them superior, in a particular line, to those whom they only intended to imitate.

When the superiority of a nation arises from the natural produce of the earth, such as valuable minerals, then it is very difficult for others to rival it with advantage; and it is very unwise of any nation to employ its efforts in rivalling another in an article where nature has given to the other a decided advantage; and it is equally ill-judged of a nation to neglect cultivating the advantages which she enjoys from nature, as they are the most permanent and their possession the most certain of any she can enjoy.

[end of page #210]

If nations were to consider in what branches of manufacture they are best fitted to excel, it would save much rivalship, misunderstanding, and jealousy; at the same time that it would tend greatly to increase the general aggregate wealth of mankind. It is not to industry and effort alone that mankind owe wealth, but to industry and effort well directed.

This is well explained in the excellent Inquiry into the Causes of the Wealth of Nations, and it is to be regretted that this truth is not more generally understood; for it would contribute still more to the peace and happiness of mankind, than to their commercial wealth.

There is not, however, any subject on which nations are so apt to err, and, indeed, the error is natural enough, if the ambition of a rival is not checked by judgement and attention to circumstances.

When a nation is particularly successful in one branch of manufacture more than in any other, it is generally because some peculiar circumstances give it an advantage. This ought to operate as a reason for doubting whether it might be prudent to attempt to rival a nation in an object in which it had particular advantages; but quite the contrary is the case; a rival nation aims directly at the thing in which another excels the most, and frequently fails when, in any other object, she might have proved successful. {171}

The changes of the taste and manners of mankind, as well as discoveries in arts and science, lay a foundation for political changes; but it is an irregular foundation for change; its operation is sometimes in favour of, and sometimes against the same nation, and it never can be calculated beforehand.

As the nations that have improved in manufactures the latest have always carried them to the greatest perfection, it is natural to inquire how this happens.

The exertion of the mind and body are both of them greatly aug-

--- {171} How many ridiculous attempts have been made, in the north, to rival the Italians in raising silk, and by enlightened men too; but it is not sufficient to be enlightened, it is necessary to follow a proper train of reasoning.--Good natural sense sometimes supplies the place of regular reasoning, and, as if it were intuitively, arrives at a true conclusion. -=-

[end of page #211]

mented by success, and diminished by any thing of a contrary description. The rising nation has always an increased energy, and that which is about being rivalled a sort of discouragement and dismay. This is one cause, but there are others.

So far as methods of working and machinery are connected, the imitating nation has the advantage; it copies the best sort of machine, and the best manner of working at once. The workmen have neither an attachment to the old inferior methods, nor do they use old inferior machines, to avoid the expense of new ones. {172} In short, they adopt all improvements without much additional expense; and, as men's minds are always more occupied in thinking about a new object than an old one, they are even more likely to make improvements.

As to difficulties in rivalling a nation in skill, in any mechanical art, there are none. The only difficulties in manufactures are in the inventions and improvements, and those have been overcome by the leading nation, and are no difficulties to that which follows. There are, indeed, some arts which require particular talents, and a real exertion of genius; but those are so few in number, and have so little connection with the common affairs of mankind, or the wealth of nations, that they do not deserve to be noticed.

There is nothing in the art of weaving, or working in metals, or in any other material for common use, that is of such difficulty but that any man, with a common capacity, may do it nearly as well as any other man. The habits and manners of mankind, their disposition to labour, and the nature of the government under which they live, may encourage or discourage manufacturing; but both the strength and capacity of any of the natives of Europe, taking them on an average, are fully sufficient to enable them to excel in any work.

--- {172} Where machines are very expensive, new improvements, that require other machinery, are sometimes crushed and rejected on that account. To adopt them, a man must sometimes begin by sacrificing half his fortune, by destroying his old machinery.

There have been several instances of this seen, particularly in the making of iron, when it was proposed to convert the rough gueze into good malleable iron bar, by rolling it at a welding heat, instead of hammering it by a forge-mill. -=-

[end of page #212]

{Here appears at page 212 the third chart, entitled "Chart Shewing the Amount of the Exports and Imports -of- ENGLAND to and from all parts from 1800 to 1805"}

The British nation has begun to seek for wealth from agriculture. It had long been the mode to pay attention and give the preference to manufactures; but the current is, for the present, set in, in another direction. Calculation has, till of late, been confined to mercantile men; but, after all, they have not carried it to a very great length: and, as to their speculative wisdom, it consists chiefly in taking a ready advantage of some immediate object.

EXPLANATION OF PLATE NO. III.

The space from right to left is divided into years, each line representing the year marked under and above. From the beginning of the last century, till the year 1770, every tenth year only is expressed, and the average amount of exports and imports only is shewn; but, from 1770 to the present time, every year is separately represented by a line going from the top to the bottom.

The divisions from top to bottom are millions of pounds sterling, each representing a million, measuring from the bottom, the number of millions indicated is marked on the right margin.

As the exports, which are expressed by a red line, increased or diminished, the red line rises or falls, crossing the division representing the year at the line which indicates the number of millions to which the exports amounted that year.

The yellow line is drawn on the same principle, and represents the imports for the same years; the difference between the two, which is stained green, being the balance for or against England.

Thus, for example, we see that, till the year 1775, the exports rose very fast, and were far above the imports, but that then their proportion begun =sic= to vary; insomuch that, in 1781, the yellow line rose above the red, when the balance in favour of England turned against it, to the amount of a million for one year. In 1782, the balance again became favourable; but, though the trade was increasing, the balance was once more, in 1785, against England; ever since which it has been more or less in our favour.