Chapter III (2)

_August 28th._--It seems the Turks, after a delay of ten days from receiving the proposition, sent it back to Vienna, asking for some not important alterations; but immediately afterwards they required a stipulation for the evacuation of the Principalities, and guarantees that they should not be occupied again. It is very improbable that the Emperor will listen to such conditions. Nesselrode has all along told Seymour that they (the Russians) mean in fulfilment of their pledges to evacuate the Principalities, as soon as they have got the required satisfaction, but that it must not be made _a condition_, and entreated him to abstain from any demand which might give an air of compulsion to the act, much in the same way as we have told Nesselrode he must not attempt to make any stipulation about the withdrawal of our fleet. Clarendon thinks that the Emperor is certain to reject the Turkish terms, and that the Turks are very capable of declaring war thereupon; for in their last communication they said that they were prepared for 'toutes les éventualités,' and he suspects that Stratford has not _bonâ fide_ striven to induce them to accept the proffered terms. Their rejection is the more unreasonable because the proposal is a hash-up of Menschikoff's original Note, and that which the Turks proposed in lieu of it, but in which the Turkish element preponderates, so that not only are their honour and dignity consulted, but in refusing they recede from their own original proposal.

The Queen is gone to Ireland, and Lord Granville with her, who is afterwards to attend her to Balmoral. This is new, because hitherto she has always had with her either the Premier or a Secretary of State. Granville is to be relieved when circumstances admit, but at present there is no other arrangement feasible. Aberdeen and Clarendon are both kept in town till the question is settled. Newcastle got leave to go to Clumber for his boys' holidays, and Her Majesty does not desire to have the Home Secretary.

But Charles Villiers told me last night that Lord Palmerston's influence and popularity in the House of Commons are greater than ever, and if this Government should be broken up by internal dissension, he would have no difficulty in forming another, and gathering round him a party to support him. This is what the Tories are anxiously looking to, desiring no better than to serve under him, and flattering themselves that in his heart he personally dislikes his colleagues, and in political matters agrees with themselves. They pay him every sort of court, never attack him, and not only defer to him on all occasions, but make all the difference they can between him and the rest of the Government; nor does he discourage or reject these civilities, though he does not invite them, or say or do anything inconsistent with his present position, but he probably thinks the disposition towards him of that large political party enhances his value to his own friends and increases his power, besides affording to him a good alternative in case anything should happen to break up the present Government or separate him from it.

_September 2nd._--For the last week the settlement of this tedious Turkish question has appeared more remote than ever, and Clarendon was almost in despair when I saw him a few days ago, and the more so because he suspected that Lord Stratford was at the bottom of the difficulties raised by the Divan. However, according to the last accounts it would seem that Stratford was not to blame, and had done what he could to get the Turks to comply with the terms of the Conference. At this moment the affair wears rather a better aspect, and my own belief is that it will be settled. It is a great bore that it drags on in this way, creating alarm and uncertainty, shaking the funds, and affecting commerce.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.

The Duke of Bedford, of whom I have seen nothing for a long time, called on me a few days ago, and talked over the present state of affairs, and the position of Lord John Russell. He said Lord John was now quite satisfied with it, and rejoiced at his own comparative freedom, and his immunity from the constant attacks of which he used to be the object; and he is now conscious that, by the part he has acted in waiving his own pretensions, he has not only not degraded himself, but has greatly raised himself in public estimation and acquired much credit and popularity, besides rendering the country a great service. He is very well with his colleagues, and gratified at the deference shown him, and the consideration he enjoys in the House of Commons. There, however, I know from other sources, all the popularity is engrossed by Palmerston and by Gladstone, and Lord John has foolishly suffered Palmerston to take his place as leader very often, because he chose to stay away at Richmond, and not come near the House.

The Duke took this opportunity of telling me what is now a very old story, but which he said he thought he had never told me before, and I am not sure whether he did or not. It was what happened to him at the time of the formation of this Government last year, of which he was evidently very proud. Just before the Derby Government broke down, and before that reunion at Woburn of which so much was said, the Prince gave him to understand that they should look to him for advice if anything occurred, which they were every day expecting. The Duke was at Woburn, and one morning when the hounds met there and half the county was at breakfast in the great hall, word was brought him that a messenger had come from Osborne with a letter for him. He found it was a letter from the Prince, in which he informed him that this was despatched by a safe and trustworthy hand, and nobody was to know of its being sent; that the Derby Government was at an end, and the Queen and Prince were anxious for his opinion on the state of affairs, the dispositions of public men, and what course they had better take. The Duke had recently been in personal communication with all the leaders, with Aberdeen and Lord John, Newcastle, Clarendon, Lansdowne, Palmerston, and others, and he was therefore apprised of all their sentiments and in a condition to give very full information to the Court. He sat himself down and with the greatest rapidity (his horse at the door to go hunting) wrote four or five sheets of paper containing the amplest details of the sentiments and views of these different statesmen, and ended by advising that the Queen should send for Lords Lansdowne and Aberdeen--as she did. Lord John had already told him he did not wish to be sent for. After this of course he could not resent the advice the Duke gave; and happily Lord John was firm in resisting the advice of some of those about him, and acted on the dictates of his own conscientious judgement and the sound advice of his friends.

OPPOSITION OF LORD STRATFORD.

_September 3rd._--I dined last night _tête-à-tête_ with Clarendon and heard all the details of the state of the Turkish question, and read the interesting correspondence of Cowley, with his accounts of his conversations with the Emperor, and many other things. Clarendon is very uneasy because he thinks the Emperor Nicholas' pride will not let him accept the Note as modified by _the Turks_, though he would have accepted the same Note if it had been presented originally by the Conference. This is one danger. The next is one at Constantinople, where there is a strong bigoted violent party for war, disposed to dethrone the Sultan and replace him by his brother. This brother (of whom I never heard before) is a man of more energy than the Sultan, and is connected with the fanatical party. The Sultan himself is enervated by early debauchery and continual drunkenness, and therefore in great danger should he by any unpopular measures provoke an outbreak from the violent faction. Clarendon thinks that Stratford has encouraged the resistance of the Divan to the proposals of the Conference, and that he might have persuaded the Turks to accept the terms if he had chosen to do so and set about it in a proper manner; but Clarendon says that he has lived there so long, and is animated with such a personal hatred of the Emperor, that he is full of the Turkish spirit; and this and his temper together have made him take a part directly contrary to the wishes and instructions of his Government. He thinks he wishes to be recalled that he may make a grievance of it, and come home to do all the mischief he can. Westmorland wrote word the other day that Stratford's language was very hostile to his Government and the Ministers of all the other Powers at Constantinople, thought he had actually resigned, and reported the fact to Vienna.

The most important question now pending is what to do with the fleets. They cannot remain much longer in Besika Bay, and must either retire to Vourla or enter the Dardanelles. The Emperor Napoleon wishes they should enter the Dardanelles, but only a little way, and not go on to Constantinople; and Clarendon takes the same view, proposing a _mezzo termine_. The Emperor professes an earnest desire for a peaceful solution, and the strongest determination to act in concert with England to the end, and his views seem very sensible and proper. But, notwithstanding this disposition, in which he probably is sincere, there is reason to believe that he is all the time keeping up a sort of secret and underhand communication with Russia, and the evidence of this is rather curious. It appears that he has recently written a letter to the Duchess of Hamilton, in which he says that he believes the Russians will not evacuate the Principalities, and that he does not care if they stay there. This letter the Duchess showed to Brunnow, and he imparted it to Aberdeen, who told Clarendon, but none of the other Ministers know anything of it. Clarendon wrote word of this to Cowley, and told him to make what use of it he thought fit. In the first instance he said something to Drouyn de Lhuys of the Emperor's entertaining views different from our's, which Drouyn repeated to the Emperor, who spoke to Cowley about it, and protested that he had no separate or different objects, when Cowley, without mentioning names, told him what he had heard of his having written. The Emperor made an evasive answer to this, but gave many assurances of his determination to act with us heartily and sincerely. This incident seems to have made a great impression both on Cowley and Clarendon, particularly as both know something more. Cowley says he knows that the Emperor has a private correspondence with Castelbajac, of which Drouyn de Lhuys is ignorant, and Seymour writes to Clarendon that he has observed for some time past a great lukewarmness on the part of the French Minister in pressing the Russian Government, and an evident leaning to them. As the Duchess of Hamilton has no intimacy with Brunnow, it appears very extraordinary that she should communicate to him a letter of the Emperor's, and such a letter, which would be a great indiscretion unless he had secretly desired her to do so; and all these circumstances taken together look very like a little intrigue between the Emperor and the Russian Court, which would also be very consistent with his secret, false, and clandestine mode of conducting his affairs. It is probable enough that he may wish to keep on good terms with Russia and at the same time maintain his intimate connexion with England. That he is bent on avoiding war there can be no doubt, and for very good reasons, for France is threatened with a scarcity, and he is above all things bent on keeping the people supplied with food at low prices; and for this object the French Government is straining every nerve and prepared to make any amount of pecuniary sacrifice; but the necessity for this, which absorbs all their means, renders it at the same time particularly desirable to maintain peace in Europe.

DISPOSAL OF THE FLEET.

There never was a case so involved in difficulties and complications of different sorts, all the particulars of which I heard last night; but the affair is so tangled, that it is impossible to weave it into an intelligible and consistent narrative, and I can only jot down fragments, which may hereafter serve to explain circumstances connected with the _dénouement_, whenever it takes place. John Russell and Palmerston are both come to town, so that a little Cabinet will discuss this matter. Palmerston is extremely reasonable, does not take the part of the Turks, but on the contrary blames them severely for making difficulties he thinks absurd and useless, but is still for not letting them be crushed. He is on the best terms with Clarendon, and goes along with him very cordially in his policy on this question. Both Palmerston and Lord John seem to agree with Clarendon on the question of the disposal of the fleet better than Aberdeen, who is always for trusting the Emperor, maintaining peace, and would be quite contented to send the fleet to Vourla or Tenedos, and would see with regret the more energetic course of entering the Dardanelles. However, there is no chance of any material difference on this score, and I have no doubt, if the question is not settled before the end of the month, the fleets will anchor within the Straits and there remain.

I was glad to find that the Queen has consented to let Palmerston take his turn at Balmoral, and Aberdeen has informed him that he is to go there. It was done by Aberdeen speaking to the Prince at Osborne, who said he thought there would be no difficulty. The Queen acquiesced with the good sense she generally shows on such occasions, being always open to reason, and ready to consent to whatever can be proved to her to be right or expedient.

LORD STRATFORD'S GOOD FAITH.

_September 4th._--I went to Winchester yesterday, and fell in with Graham in the train, so we went together and had a great deal of talk, mostly on the Eastern Question. He thinks the Emperor of Russia will not accept the Turkish alterations, and he is very hot against Stratford, to whom he attributes all the difficulties. He has heard that Stratford has held language hostile to the Government, and he is inclined to think not only that he has acted treacherously towards his employers, but that proofs of his treachery might be obtained, and he is all for getting the evidence if possible, and acting upon it at once, by recalling him; he thinks the proofs might be obtained through the Turkish Ministers, and if they can be, he would not stop to enquire who might be displeased, or what the effect might be, but do it at once. He acknowledges, however, that it would not do to act on surmises or reports, and that nothing but clear proofs of Stratford's misconduct, such as will satisfy Parliament, would render such a step justifiable or safe. With regard to the fleets, he says there is no reason why they should not remain in Besika Bay, and it is a mistake to suppose they could not, and he is very decidedly against their entering the Dardanelles in any case, because it would be contrary to treaty and afford the Emperor of Russia a just _casus belli_; and he maintains that his having (contrary to treaties and international rights) occupied the Principalities affords no reason why we should infringe them in another direction. When this question comes to be discussed, his voice will evidently be for not entering the Dardanelles, though he acknowledges that we cannot retreat while the Russians remain where they are. He talked a great deal about Palmerston, of whom he has some distrust, and fancied he has been in communication with Stratford, and that he would concur with him in his proceedings, and he expressed great satisfaction when I told him that Palmerston and Clarendon were on the most cordial and confidential terms, and that the former entirely disapproved of the conduct of the Turks (which is that of Stratford) in regard to the Note. He thinks Palmerston looks to being Prime Minister, if anything happened to Aberdeen, but that neither he nor John Russell could hold the office, as neither would consent to the elevation of the other. On the whole, he inclines to the opinion that Palmerston has made up his mind to go on with this Government and his present colleagues, that he means to act fairly and honestly with and by them, and has no _arrière pensée_ towards the Tories, though he is not sorry to have them always looking to him, and paying him, as they do, excessive court. It ensures him great support and an easy life in the House of Commons, where, however, he says Palmerston has done very little this year, and he does not seem much impressed with the idea of his having gained very considerably there, or obtained a better position than he had before.

_September 8th._--I saw Clarendon on Sunday. There is nothing new, but he said he would lay two to one the Emperor does not accept the modified Note; it will be a contest between his pride and his interest, for his army is in such a state of disease and distress that he is in no condition to make war; on the other hand, he cannot without extreme humiliation accept the Turkish Note. What will happen, if he refuses, nobody can possibly divine. The four Ministers met to discuss the matter, and were very harmonious; Palmerston not at all for violent measures, and Clarendon said he himself was the most warlike of the four. I told him of my journey with Graham and all that he had said. He replied that he knew Graham was very violent against Stratford, but that it would be impossible to make out any case against him, as he certainly had read to the Turkish Minister all his (Clarendon's) despatches and instructions, and he gave the most positive assurances, which it would be difficult to gainsay, that he had done everything in his power to induce the Turkish Government to give way to the advice of the Conference, and whatever his secret wishes and opinions might be, there was no official evidence to be had that he had failed in doing his duty fairly by his own Government; therefore it would be out of the question to recall him.

_September 20th._--At Doncaster all last week; I found Clarendon yesterday very much alarmed at the prospect in the East. He thinks it will be impossible to restrain the Turkish war party; he told me that the Conference at Vienna had imparted their Note to the Turkish Ambassador there, and both he and his dragoman had expressed their entire approbation of it. They had considered this to afford a strong presumption that it would not be unpalateable at Constantinople, but it was not sent there because this would have occasioned so much delay, and it was desirable to get the Russians out of the Principalities as speedily as possible. The Russian generals had actually received orders to prepare for the evacuation, which the Emperor would have commanded the instant he heard that the Turks were willing to send the Vienna Note. The Emperor Napoleon has again given the strongest assurances of his determination in no case whatever to separate his policy from ours, his resolution to adhere to the English alliance, and to maintain peace _à tout prix_, which he frankly owns to be indispensably necessary to the interests of his country. The Austrians are already beginning to hang back from taking any decided part in opposition to Russia, and while still ready to join in making every exertion to maintain peace, they are evidently determined if war breaks out to take no part against Russia, and this disposition is sure to be improved by the interview which is about to take place between the Emperors of Russia and Austria.

PROSPECTS OF WAR.

_September 26th._--I have been at Hatchford all last week. I saw Clarendon on Thursday before I went there, and heard that two ships of each fleet were gone up the Dardanelles,[1] and that the rest would probably soon follow, as the French were now urging that measure. He was then going to Aberdeen to propose calling the Cabinet together, the state of affairs becoming more critical every hour, and apparently no chance of averting war. The prospect was not the brighter from the probability of a good deal of difference of opinion when they do meet. He showed me a letter from Palmerston, in which he spoke very coolly of such a contingency as war with Russia and Austria, and with his usual confidence and flippancy of the great blows that might be inflicted on both Powers, particularly alluding to the possible expulsion of the Austrians from Italy, an object of which he has probably never lost sight. Meanwhile the violence and scurrility of the press here exceeds all belief. Day after day the Radical and Tory papers, animated by very different sentiments and motives, pour forth the most virulent abuse of the Emperor of Russia, of Austria, and of this Government, especially of Aberdeen.

[Footnote 1: The British vessels were steamers, the 'Retribution' and another. There was at that time only one line-of-battle ship in each fleet having steam power; all the other vessels of the line were sailing ships.]