Chapter VIII (1)

Lord John's Views on the Ministry--Gloomy Prospects--Attacks on Lord Raglan--Russian and Prussian Diplomacy--Lord Palmerston more in favour--French View of the British Army--Russian Negotiations--Lord John Russell in Paris--Conference at Vienna--Lord Raglan unmoved--Terms proposed to Russia--Failure of the Duke of Newcastle--Hesitation of Austria and France--Deplorable State of the Armies--Chances of Peace--Meeting of Parliament--Further Negotiations--Lord John Russell resigns--Ministers stay in--The Debate on Roebuck's Motion--Resignation of Lord Aberdeen--Lord John Russell's real Motives--Lord Derby sent for--and fails--Wise Decision of the Queen--Ministerial Negotiations--Lord Palmerston sent for--The Peelites refuse to join--Lord Palmerston forms a Government--Lord Palmerston's Prospects--Lord John Russell sent to Vienna--Lord Palmerston in the House of Commons--General Alarm--Difficulties of Lord Palmerston--The Peelites secede--Lord John accepts the Colonial Office--Sir George Lewis Chancellor of the Exchequer--Death of the Emperor Nicholas of Russia--Lord Palmerston supposed to be a weak Debater--Weakness of the Government--Fresh Arrangements--The Budget--The Press.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.

_January 2nd,_ 1855.--I received yesterday a letter from the Duke of Bedford relating to the views and position of Lord John Russell. He had talked over his position with the Duke, disclaimed any wish to be again Prime Minister, but desired Lord Lansdowne should be in the post; that he liked personally both Aberdeen and Newcastle but thought them unfit for the emergency. He had proposed that Palmerston should be War Minister but was overruled, and now (the Duke asks) what is he to do if a vote of censure on the management of the war is proposed in the House of Commons, thinking as he does that it has been mismanaged? He would willingly break up this Government, which he really thinks a very bad one (what he wrote to Clarendon being his deliberate opinion), if he could see a chance of a better being substituted, and if he thought Derby could carry on the war more efficiently, which he does not. This letter is a complete reply to the objection Clarendon urged against Palmerston's being War Minister, for if Lord John himself wished it, nobody else could well object. He ought to have insisted on it, and, if he had, it must have been done.

Nothing can wear a gloomier aspect than affairs do at home and abroad--the Government weak, unpopular, dispirited, and divided, the army in the Crimea in a deplorable state, and the prospects of the war far from brilliant, no confidence in the commanding officers there, and no likelihood of finding more competent ones, everybody agreeing that till we have 150,000 men in the Crimea we cannot count on taking Sebastopol, and the difficulty of ever assembling such a force appearing very great. So far as I can collect, the violent articles which the 'Times' emits day after day have excited general resentment and disgust. They overdo everything and, while they are eternally changing their course, the one they follow for the moment they follow with an outrageous violence which shocks everybody. But as those who complain most of the 'Times' still go on reading it, the paper only gets more rampant and insolent, for as long as its circulation is undiminished it does not care what anybody thinks or says of it.

_January 4th._--I wrote the Duke an answer with my opinion on Lord John's position and obligations, which has elicited another from him this morning. He says that it was a few weeks ago that John made a formal proposal to Aberdeen that Palmerston should replace Newcastle at the War Department. Aberdeen desired time to consider, and then refused. Subsequently the matter was renewed, when Palmerston himself objected, and then it necessarily ended. The Duke thinks that Lord John will not now stir it again, and will make up his mind to go on, and to defend his Government in the House of Commons. He consulted Sir George Grey, Lord Lansdowne, and Panmure, and they all advised him not to resign. It is strange that while this is imparted to me 'very confidentially,' and I had heard nothing of it before, it is currently reported, and stated positively in the 'Morning Herald,' that Lord John and others, mentioned by name, have insisted on Newcastle's being turned out. That some part of what has occurred has got out is clear, and I incline to think that some of his satellites have set to work, and that, by way of assisting Lord John's object, they have given notice of what was going on to some of the Derbyites. There is a mysterious allusion to some impending event in the 'Press' on Saturday last, which looks very like this.

CENSURES OF LORD RAGLAN.

The 'Times' goes on against Raglan with greater vehemence every day, and will not be restrained by any remonstrances. Evans has put himself in communication with Delane (though certainly having no hand in these attacks) and has sent him an account of his having addressed a letter to Canrobert many days before the battle of Inkerman for the purpose of getting him to assist in taking precautionary measures to resist the attack he was persuaded the Russians would make, and Canrobert's answer, in which he says that his means are curtailed by the necessity of providing for the defence of Balaklava, and of extending his line and making dispositions 'dans l'intérêt de la situation commune,' but that he has ordered Bosquet to move nearer to Evans' division, and to be in readiness if anything should happen. There was a passage omitted in the printed letter of Evans to Raglan in which he alludes to the neglect of the precautionary measures he had recommended.

Gortschakoff has declared the Emperor of Russia will accept the first, second, and fourth articles of the four points, and will consider of the third. This may mean that he really wishes to make peace, or only be done for the sake of Austria, and to give her a pretext for not declaring against him. Clarendon is satisfied with Usedom, but not at all with his proposals. He says the King of Prussia has sent him to try and make a treaty with France and England entirely out of jealousy and mortification at Austria having made one, but he does not propose one similar to the Austrian Treaty, only a _defensive_ one. Clarendon says the King in his heart hates Russia and winces under the influence he submits to, that he is indignant at the insults which have been heaped on him by his Imperial brother-in-law, and the contumely with which he has been treated, but, being physically and politically a coward, he has not energy to shake off the yoke he has suffered to be imposed on him.

_Aldenham, January 6th._--I came here to-day. I saw Cowley yesterday, who has been to Windsor, and tells me that he finds by conversations he has had with Stockmar that the Queen is much softened towards Palmerston and no longer regards him with the extreme aversion she did. On the other hand, she is very angry with John Russell, and this is, of course, from knowing what he has been doing, and resentment at his embarrassing and probably breaking up the Government. This relaxation in her feelings towards Palmerston is very important at this moment, and presents the chance of an alternative which, if this Government falls, may save her from Derby and his crew, whom she cordially detests. I hear Newcastle is very low, as well he may be, for no man was ever placed in so painful a position, and it is one from which it is impossible for him to extricate himself. When the Government goes to pieces, as I am persuaded it will, the Queen is very likely to send for Palmerston, and he and Ellenborough, as War Minister, might make a Government that would probably stand during the war, and which in present circumstances the House of Commons and the country could not but support. My notion is that Lord John would not take any office, but would support Palmerston, and advise all his friends and followers to do so. I know no reason why Ellenborough should not act with anybody, and many of the present Government might stay in, and certain changes be made which would let in more Whigs, and so conciliate that party, while the Conservatives would abstain from supporting any Government which did not contain Aberdeen and Newcastle. Gladstone might be a difficulty; Clarendon would be none, for he and Palmerston have pulled very well together, and I have no doubt Palmerston would be very happy to keep him. This opens a new prospect, and one very preferable to having Derby and his friends in office again.

CANROBERT'S OPINION OF BRITISH ARMY.

I asked Cowley about Canrobert's confidential letters to his Government on the state of our army of which I had heard. He said it was very true, and he had seen several of these letters, in which Canrobert said that nothing could exceed his admiration of the British soldiers, but he was convinced the army would disappear altogether, for their organisation and management were deplorable; and he entreated his Government, if they possibly could, to interpose in the interest of the common cause to procure some amelioration of the organisation, without which nothing could save the army from destruction. The Emperor, Cowley said, never mentioned our troops or commanders to him except in terms of respect and with expressions of his admiration, but he knew that to others he spoke in a very different tone, and said that our army was commanded by an old woman.

_January 12th._--I returned to town last night. The Emperor of Russia's acceptance of the four points, as interpreted by us, of course excites hopes of peace, but I think few people are sanguine as to the result. It is suspected to be only a dodge to paralyse the action of Austria, but unless there was some secret concert with Austria, which is not likely, I cannot see what Russia is to gain by accepting conditions which she does not really mean to abide by. Such conduct could only deceive the Allies for a short time, and, as there is no question of any suspension of military operations, nothing would be gained in that respect, while as soon as some decisive test of the Emperor's sincerity was applied, his real meaning must be made manifest, and then not only would the _acharnement_ of the Western Powers be increased, but it would be quite impossible for Austria not to join the Coalition, and to act verily and indeed against Russia. These reasons would induce me to put faith in the Russian announcement; on the other hand, it is barely credible that the Emperor should consent to the sacrifice of Sebastopol in the present state of the campaign, and with the almost certainty that we cannot take it for many months to come, if at all.

John Russell is gone to Paris, not for any political object, but merely to see one of his wife's sisters; but his journey there and conversations with the Emperor may not be without some consequences. I hear almost daily from the Duke of Bedford on the subject of John's conduct, the conduct of the war, and the state of the Government. For the present he appears to desist from doing anything to make an explosion. The curious thing is that the public, and particularly the Derbyite, newspapers should be so well informed as they are of what is going on. Though the immediate danger of a break up seems to be over, I still think the _animus_ Lord John exhibits, the manifold difficulties of the Government, and their undoubted though unjust unpopularity, will before long break them to pieces.

_January 14th._--I met Clarendon last night and had a talk about affairs at home and abroad. John Russell at Paris is satisfied with his conversation with the Emperor, who agreed that we could make no peace but one which would be glorious for us. Clarendon does not believe the Emperor of Russia really means to sacrifice Sebastopol, and thinks when he sent his acceptance of the four points he was not apprised of what had passed in the Conference, which was merely verbal. Gortschakoff, in a passion, said, 'I suppose you mean to limit our naval force, or to dismantle Sebastopol, or both;' to which they replied, 'Yes'; but nothing was put in writing to this effect. This makes a great difference, but I do not despair. There is a great question about a negotiator, and the Queen and Prince want Clarendon himself to go. He refused point blank; he does not like to leave it to Westmorland alone. I suggested Canning, but he thought Canning had not had experience enough, and that it ought to be a Cabinet Minister, and asked, 'Why not Palmerston?' I objected the difficulty of relying on him, his hatred of Austria, and the terror he would inspire; and I said Granville might do, but that I saw no reason why he should not go himself if he had reason to think it was likely to succeed, though I would not go merely to return _re infectâ_. We then talked of Lord John and of Newcastle. He said that Newcastle is exceedingly slow, and has a slow mind, but that there is no case whatever for turning him out, and he cannot be blamed for the failures in matters of detail, and as for the great measures the responsibility belongs alike to all. Lord John never is and never will be satisfied without being again Prime Minister, which is impossible. I said the Duke of Bedford assured me that his brother did not _now_ want to be Prime Minister. 'What does he want then?--to retire altogether?' 'Yes,' said Clarendon, 'that is his intense selfishness; utterly regardless of the public interests, or of what may happen, he wants to relieve _himself_ from the responsibility of a situation which is not so good as he desires, and to run away from his post at a moment of danger and difficulty. If we had some great success--if Sebastopol were taken, for example--we should hear no more of his retirement.' As matters are, however, Clarendon thinks very ill of them abroad and at home. This disposition of Lord John's keeps the Government in constant hot water, and no confidence can be placed in Raglan, while it is impossible to find anybody who would, as far as we can judge, do any better.

LORD RAGLAN'S COMPOSURE.

The Court are exceedingly annoyed and alarmed at Raglan's failure; the Prince showed Clarendon (or told him of) a letter from Colonel Steele, who said that he had no idea how great a mind Raglan really had, but that he now saw it, for in the midst of distresses and difficulties of every kind in which the army was involved he was perfectly serene and undisturbed, and his health excellent! Steele meant this as a panegyric, and did not see that it really conveyed a severe reproach. The conviction of his incapacity for so great a command gains ground every day; he has failed in those qualities where everybody expected he would have succeeded best, even those who thought nothing of his military genius. But, having learnt what he knows of war under the Duke, he might at least have known how _he_ carried on war, and have imitated his attention to minute details and a general supervision of the different services, seeing that all was in order and the merely mechanical parts properly attended to on which so much of the efficiency as well as of the comfort of the army depended.[1]

[Footnote 1: It may be proper to remark that a different and far more favourable view of Lord Raglan's capacity as a General will be found _infra_ at the beginning of Chapter XII. of this Journal, upon the evidence of Sir Edmund Lyons, who was entirely in the confidence of the Commander-in-Chief.]

_January 19th._--We are still uncertain as to the real intentions of the Emperor of Russia, and whether he means to accept the terms offered by the Allies; but my own impression is that he will not accept them _in our sense_, and that he never will consent to the sacrifice of Sebastopol till we have taken the place and destroyed the fortifications, thereby rendering its dismantling a _fait accompli_. There is certainly nothing in the present state of our affairs which warrants our lofty pretensions, and the proposal of terms so humiliating to the Emperor. The only possible grounds that can be imagined for his acceptance are, his own knowledge of the state of his own country and of the resources he can command for carrying on the war, and a dispassionate and farsighted calculation of the disposition and of the resources of his opponents. It is not impossible that he may foresee that he must eventually succumb in a contest so unequal and in which the number of his enemies increases every day. He may deem it better to make certain sacrifices now, with the view of being able before long to retrieve his losses, than to expose himself to the chance and great probability of being obliged to make much greater sacrifices hereafter, and such as it will be more difficult for him to repair. The Duke of Bedford tells me that Aberdeen and Clarendon are both hopeless of peace, and that Lord John and Palmerston do not consider it so absolutely hopeless; Aberdeen says the negotiations will not last half an hour.

ILL CONDUCT OF THE WAR.

The accounts from the army are as bad as possible; one-third of it is in the hospitals, and the quays of Balaklava are loaded with enormous stores of every kind, which it was impossible to transport to the camp. Very intelligent people therefore entertain the greatest apprehension of some catastrophe occurring whenever the severity of the winter, which has hitherto been comparatively mild, sets in. The best security is in the equally distressed state of the Russians, and in fact nothing but this can account for their having left us alone so long.

The Duke of Bedford and I talked over the state of affairs here, and the political possibilities in the event of this Government falling to pieces or being compelled to resign. We both desire any arrangement rather than another Derby Government, and we agree in thinking that on the whole the best would be for Lord Lansdowne to undertake the formation of a Government, if he can be persuaded to do so, which does not appear wholly impossible. This would satisfy Lord John, who would then remain in his present office, half a dozen of the present Cabinet would go out, some Whigs might replace them, and the thing would undoubtedly go on for a time. It is impossible for Newcastle to continue to conduct the war, with the universal clamour there is against him and the opinion of his own colleagues (at least of such of them as I know the opinions of) that he is unfit for the post. He has two very great faults which are sufficient to disqualify him: he is exceedingly slow, and he knows nothing of the qualifications of other men, or how to provide himself with competent assistants; nor has he any decision or foresight. He chose for his under-secretaries two wholly incompetent men who have been of no use to him in managing and expediting the various details of the service, and he has a rage for doing everything himself, by which means nothing is done, or done so tardily as to be of no use. Then all the subordinate Boards are miserably administered, and the various useless, inefficient, or worn out officers have been suffered to remain at their posts, to the enormous detriment of the service. The genius of Lord Chatham or the energy and will of the Duke of Wellington would have failed with such a general staff here, and with such a Commander-in-Chief as Hardinge, and with the _fainéantise_ of Raglan.

_January 20th._--It is only by degrees one can unravel the truth in political affairs. John Russell told me last night that Austria has never given in her adhesion to our condition of making the destruction of Sebastopol a _sine quâ non_ of peace. She joins us in insisting on the '_faire cesser la prépotence_,' but the means of accomplishing this remain to be discussed. This is very different from what I had imagined, and makes it anything but certain that she will join her forces to our's, if the negotiations fail in consequence of our demands. We are now endeavouring to bring the Court of Vienna into an agreement with us as to the conditions to be required, and it is no easy matter to get the Cabinet to agree upon the wording of the communications we make to her. This arises from the necessity of looking to the effect of what will appear in the Blue Books. Blue Books, Parliamentary discussions, and the Press tie up the hands of a Government, fetter its discretion and deliberate policy, and render diplomatic transactions (especially with Governments whose hands are more free) excessively difficult. Granville told me yesterday morning that the course of Russia had been more straightforward than that of England and France, and this morning he reminded me of having said so, and added that we were in a great diplomatic mess, France always finessing and playing a game of her own; and I infer from what he said that, having got all she can out of us, she is now coquetting with Austria, and disposed to defer to her wishes and objects, and to be less _exigeante_ towards Russia. This is only of a piece with what Clarendon has often said to me about France and her way of dealing with us; however, if France will only insist on making peace on plausible terms, and with the semblance of its being an honourable and consistent peace, we cannot do otherwise than acquiesce in her determination, and if we only follow the lead she takes the public here must needs be satisfied. This is Granville's own idea, as it is mine, and God grant that affairs may take this turn, and so we may get out of the tremendous scrape we are in, the escape from which will be cheaply purchased by the fall of the Government--a consequence that is almost certain if it does not happen before anything can be done.

Day after day the accounts from the Crimea represent a more deplorable state of things, entirely confirmative of Canrobert's statements to his own Government, and it is difficult to read them and not apprehend some fatal catastrophe. We know nothing of the state of the Russians either within or without Sebastopol, and this ignorance is not one of the least remarkable circumstances in this war, but we must conclude either that their condition is as bad as our's, and that they are unable to attack us, or that their policy is to let the winter do its work, and that they do not think it necessary for them to fight sanguinary battles with very doubtful results when disease is ravaging the allied army and producing effects as advantageous for them as the most complete victories could do, as surely, only more gradually.

ABORTIVE NEGOTIATIONS.

_January 22nd._--Every day one looks with anxiety to see and to hear whether the chances of peace look well or ill, and at present they look very ill. Clarendon seems to set his face against it--that is, he considers it hopeless; and it is not promising that the negotiations should be under the management of one who has no hopes of bringing them to a successful issue, and whose despair of it evidently arises from his determination to exact conditions that there is no chance of obtaining. I hear, too, this morning, that the instructions to Bourqueney are to be as _exigeant_ as possible--not very wise pretensions anyhow, but they rather indicate the tone adopted by England than the real intentions of France, for it is one thing to make great demands and another to persist in them. It is, however, idle to speculate on the progress of a negotiation which must be so largely influenced by the operations and events of the war. Parliament meets tomorrow, and I think a very short time will elapse before the fate of the Government is decided by some vote about the conduct of the war. I think the Government themselves desire it, and, conscious of the state of public opinion and of the deplorable state of affairs, and most of them thinking there has been great and fatal mismanagement, they wish the question to be decided, would not be sorry to be driven out by an adverse vote, and consider that it would be a better and more respectable way of ending than by those internal dissensions, which, like a cancer, are continually undermining them. John Russell sees nothing but difficulties in the formation of another Government of a Whig complexion including a large portion of the present Ministers, and says that he does not think Lord Lansdowne _would_, or that he or Palmerston _could_ accomplish it. He means now to stand by his colleagues, to accept his share of responsibility, and defend what has been done.

_January 23rd._--Parliament meets to-day, and probably no time will be lost in attacking the Government, but it is impossible yet to know whether they will be harassed by a continual succession of skirmishes and bitter comments on details, or whether some grand and decisive assault will be made. The general impression is that the War Department cannot remain in Newcastle's hands, and if he cannot be got rid of without the whole Ministry going to pieces it must so end. I think this is pretty much the opinion of the Ministers themselves; and though I believe they all, or most of them, personally like him, they seem, so far as I can see, to be agreed that he is unequal to his post.

With regard to peace, the prospect looks anything but bright. The negotiations will not begin till we receive positive information as to the meaning of the Emperor of Russia in accepting the four points. Some weeks ago Clarendon wrote a despatch to Westmorland, in which he stated explicitly the meaning we attached to the four points, but this has never been put officially before the Emperor, that we know of. Buol acquiesced, as I understood, in our explanation, but John Russell distinctly told me that Austria had never signified her concurrence in making the demolition of Sebastopol a _sine quâ non_ condition. Now, however, some fresh communication has been made by Austria to Russia, and we will not begin the negotiation until Austria shall have signified to us that the Emperor's acceptance is such as will warrant us in negotiating. I am not sufficiently acquainted with all the details to form a conclusive opinion, but, as far as I can see, we have been hanging off from being perfectly explicit, and have never yet come to a complete understanding with Austria, much less with Russia, and I am afraid of our Ministers committing themselves in Parliament by some declarations and professions of intentions which may make peace impossible and break up the negotiations at once, for as to Russia consenting to dismantle Sebastopol, I look upon it as impossible, and absurd to expect it. I earnestly hope that Bourqueney may be instructed to come to an understanding with Austria, and that, if we insist on terms impossible to obtain, our two Allies may compel us to give way, or leave us to fight the battle alone. The only thing quite certain is that we are in a state of the utmost doubt, danger, and perplexity at home and abroad, all of which is owing to our own egregious folly and unskilfulness, and the universal madness which has pervaded the nation.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL RESIGNS OFFICE.

_January 24th._--The Government is at an end, or at least it probably will be before the end of the day. The Duke of Bedford has just been to me to tell me that last night, after returning from the House of Commons, Lord John wrote a letter to Aberdeen to resign his office, and he will not attend the Cabinet to-day. Nobody knows it but Aberdeen himself, and I am not permitted to tell Granville even, but it will be announced to the Cabinet this morning. The immediate cause of Lord John's resignation is Roebuck's motion, of which he gave notice last night, for a Committee to inquire into the conduct of the war; it is intended as a hostile motion, and would have been turned into a vote of censure and want of confidence. Besides this, it seems Hayter had told Lord John that the aspect of the House was bad, and members of the Government party disinclined to attend. Accordingly, he said he could not and would not face the motion; Graham and Sidney Herbert might defend the conduct of the war, but _he_ could not. Heaven only knows what will occur. Lord John took no time to consider, but sent his resignation at once, the moment he returned from the House. I told the Duke that I thought he had made himself obnoxious to very just reproach, running away from such a motion, and explaining (as he must do) that he could not defend the conduct of the war. He will naturally be asked how long he has been dissatisfied with its management, and why he did not retire long ago. The Duke said he was aware of this, but he endeavoured to make out that the case bore some analogy to that of Lord Althorp in 1834, when he resigned in consequence of a motion of O'Connell's. But this was altogether different. Nothing can, in my opinion, justify Lord John, and his conduct will, if I am not mistaken, be generally condemned, and deprive him of the little consideration and influence he had left. It has been vacillating, ungenerous, and cowardly, for after all, in spite of errors and mistakes, the conduct of the war admits of a defence, at least as to many parts of it, and it would have been far better to stand up manfully and abide the result of the battle in Parliament, than to shirk the fight and leave his colleagues to deal with the difficulty as best they may, trying to escape from the consequences of a responsibility which nothing he can say or do can enable him to shake off.

MR. ROEBUCK'S COMMITTEE OF ENQUIRY.

_January 26th._--Yesterday morning the Cabinet met, and after some discussion they resolved unanimously not to resign, but to encounter Roebuck's motion. Aberdeen went down to Windsor, and there is another Cabinet this morning. I saw John Russell in the afternoon, and told him in very plain terms what I thought of his conduct, and how deeply I regretted that he had not gone on with his colleagues and met this attack with them. He looked astonished and put out, but said, 'I could not. It was impossible for me to oppose a motion which I think ought to be carried.' I argued the point with him, and in the middle of our talk the Duke of Bedford came in. I asked him if he did not think the remaining Ministers were right in the course they have taken, and he said he did. I then said, 'I have been telling John how much I regret that he did not do the same,' when John repeated what he had said before, and then went away. After he was gone the Duke said, 'I am very glad you said what you did to John.' The town was in a great state of excitement yesterday, and everybody speculating on what is to happen, and all making lists of a new Government according to their expectations or wishes; most people place Palmerston at the head. In the House of Lords Derby asked me what it all meant. Clarendon came up while we were talking, and gave Derby to understand that he would probably have to take office again, expressing his own eagerness to quit it. I now hear that Lord John has been leading the Cabinet a weary life for many months past, eternally making difficulties, and keeping them in a constant state of hot water, determined to upset them, and only doubting as to what was a fit opportunity, and at last taking the worst that could be well chosen for his own honour and character. He is not, however, without countenance and support from some of his adherents, or from those who were so impatient for the destruction of this Government that they are satisfied with its being accomplished, no matter how or by whom or under what circumstances; and as he has been long accustomed

to sit attentive to his own applause

from a little circle in Chesham Place, so he will now be told by the same set that he has acted a very fine and praiseworthy part, although such will not be the verdict of history, nor is it, as far as I can see, of the best and wisest of his own contemporaries. Nobody entertains a doubt of Roebuck's motion being carried by a large majority against the Government.

_January 30th._--For the last three days I have been so ill with gout that I could not do anything, or follow the course of events. John Russell made a cunning and rather clever speech in explanation of his resignation, George Grey a good one and strong against Lord John. Opinions fluctuated about the division, some, but the minority, fancying Government would have a majority because the proposed Committee is so excessively difficult and in all ways objectionable; but when it became known that the Derbyites meant to vote in a body for the motion, no one doubted the result, and it became only a question of numbers.[1] Lord John seems to have felt no regret at what he has done, and at exciting the resentment and incurring the blame of all his colleagues; and he goes so little into society, and is so constantly patted on the back at home, that the censure of the world produces no effect on him. They tell me he is in high spirits, and appears only to be glad at having at last found the opportunity he has so long desired of destroying the Government. Everybody appears astonished at the largeness of the majority. Gladstone made a very fine speech, and powerful, crushing against Lord John, and he stated what Lord John had never mentioned in his narrative, that he had been expressly asked in December whether he still wished the change to be made which he had urged in November, and he had replied that he did not, that he had given it up. This _suppressio veri_ is shocking, and one of the very worst things he ever did.

Aberdeen went down to Windsor this morning to resign. It is thought that the Queen will send for Lansdowne, and ask him if he can make a Government, or will try, and, if he declines, that he will advise her to send for Palmerston; if Palmerston fails, then she can do nothing but take Derby. It seems likely now that we shall have either a Whig or a Derbyite Government, and that the Peelites will be left out altogether. The difficulties are enormous, and though everybody says that at such a crisis and with the necessity of attending to the war, and the war only, no personal prejudices or antipathies should prevent anybody from taking office if their services can be of use, men will not be governed by motives of such pure patriotism; and, whoever may make the Government, I expect there will be many exclusions and many refusals to join. Some say that, if Derby comes in, and with the same or nearly the same men as before, he ought to be kicked out at once, but I do not think so, and, much as I should abhor another such Government, I think in present circumstances it must be allowed the fairest play, and be supported unless and until it commits some flagrant errors.

[Footnote 1: Mr. Roebuck's Motion for a Committee of Enquiry was carried on the 29th of January by a majority of 157 in a House of 453 members present.]

_January 31st._--The division was curious: some seventy or eighty Whigs, ordinary supporters of Government, voted against them, and all the Tories, except about six or seven who voted against the motion; Cobden and Bright stayed away. John Russell's explanation, had he spoken the truth, would have run in these terms: 'I joined the Government with great reluctance, and only at the earnest entreaty of my friends, particularly Lord Lansdowne. From the first I was disgusted at my position, and I resolved, unless Lord Aberdeen made way for me, and I again became Prime Minister, that I would break up the Government. I made various attempts to bring about such a change, and at last, after worrying everybody to death for many months, I accomplished my object, having taken what seemed a plausible pretext for doing it.'

THE GOVERNMENT BROKEN UP.

_February 1st._--Contrary to general expectation, the Queen did not send either for Lansdowne or Palmerston, but at once for Derby. He went directly to Palmerston, who declined to join him. He is trying to form a Government, and I see the Whigs are chuckling over the probability of his failing and being obliged to give it up, when they evidently flatter themselves that it will fall again into the hands of John Russell. Rather than this should occur, I would prefer that Derby should succeed, and, if he can get no foreign aid, that he should reconstitute the wretched Government he had before. My disgust at the conduct of my Whig friends is intense. Although they were to the last degree indignant at the conduct of John Russell, they have, ever since the interregnum began, been dancing attendance on him, evincing every disposition to overlook the enormity of his conduct and to reform the party with a view of carrying him again to the head of affairs and making another pure Whig Government. I confess I thought that nobody could refuse to serve at the present crisis, and, if the Queen sent for Derby, Palmerston, if invited, could not help joining, and taking the War Department; but I was wrong. I see in no quarter, as far as I have been able to observe and judge, any disposition to discard prejudices, antipathies, and personal feelings and interests, and to make every consideration yield to the obligations which the present emergency imposes. However, the game is not half played out yet. Meanwhile we are exhibiting a pretty spectacle to Europe, and I don't think our example will tempt other nations to adopt the institutions of which we are so proud; for they may well think that liberty of the Press and Parliamentary government, however desirable they may be when regulated by moderation and good sense, would be dearly purchased at the expense of the anarchy and confusion which they are now producing here.

LORD DERBY SENT FOR.

_February 2nd._--The Queen herself decided to send at once to Derby, and the result proves how wise her decision was, for she is relieved from the annoyance of having him, and he is placed in such a position that he cannot embarrass her new Government when it is formed. Derby went to Palmerston, invited him to join and to bring Gladstone and Sidney Herbert with him. On their declining he gave it up, and Her Majesty then sent for Lord Lansdowne.

Last night the Duke of Newcastle defended himself in the House of Lords against John Russell, and replied to his statements in the House of Commons, and did it very successfully, carrying the House with him. The whole affair, as it is gradually evolved, places John Russell in a disgraceful and odious light, and ought to demolish him as a public man, for he has shown himself to be actuated by motives of pique, personal ambition, and mortified vanity, and to have been insincere, vacillating, uncandid, and untruthful. The Duke's statement was crushing, and appears to me not to admit of a rejoinder. It ought to cover him and his wretched clique with confusion; but they will probably attempt to brazen it out, and doggedly to insist that John was justified in all he did. The discussion last night was very characteristic of Derby. If ever there was an occasion in which seriousness and gravity seemed to be required of a man in his position, it would seem to be that of last night; but his speech was nothing but jeering at the late Cabinet and chaffing Newcastle; it was really indecent, but very smart and funny, if it had not been so unbefitting the occasion.

_February 4th._--No one can remember such a state as the town has been in for the last two days. No Government, difficulties apparently insurmountable, such confusion, such excitement, such curiosity, everybody moving about craving for news, and rumour with her hundred tongues scattering every variety of statement and conjecture. At last the crisis seems to be drawing to a conclusion. The Queen has behaved with admirable sense of her constitutional obligations. When Aberdeen took down his resignation, she told him she had made up her mind what to do, that she had looked at the list of the division, and found that the majority which had turned out her Government was composed principally of Lord Derby's adherents, and she should therefore send for him. Aberdeen said a few words rather discouraging her; but she said, though Lord Palmerston was evidently the popular man, she thought, according to constitutional practice, Lord Derby was the man she ought to send for. It has been seen how Derby failed; then she sent for Lord Lansdowne, whom she desired to consult different people and see what their opinions and inclinations were, and report them to her. This was on Friday. He did so and made his report, after which, on the same principle which had decided her to send for Derby, she resolved to send for John Russell, his followers having been the next strongest element of the victorious majority. Accordingly, on Friday night or early yesterday morning, she placed the formation of a Government in his hands. He accepted it, and began by applying to Palmerston, offering him any office he chose to take. Palmerston did not refuse, but his acquiescence seems to have been of a hesitating and reluctant kind, and nothing was definitely settled between them. Gladstone and Sidney Herbert, and afterwards Graham, decidedly refused; Clarendon desired to have some hours to consider of it. However, the result of his applications was so unfavourable that last night he considered his attempt virtually at an end, though he had not actually given it up this morning, and some further communication was taking place between him and Clarendon, which was to be decisive. As soon as this is over, the Queen will play her last card, and have recourse to _the man of the people!_--to Palmerston, whom they are crying out for, and who, they fondly imagine, is to get us out of all our difficulties. From all I hear, I think he will make a Government, because he really wishes and is determined to do it, and many of the most important who would not join John Russell will join him. In the course of to-day I imagine it will all be settled. The impression made by Newcastle's speech against Lord John has been prodigious, far greater and more general than I imagined, and it is confidently affirmed that, if he had taken office and stood again for the City, he would have been beaten. He still shows fight against Newcastle, and intended to have answered him and vindicated himself in the House of Commons yesterday, if he had not been detained so long by the Queen that the hour was up when he got there. He means to return to the charge to-morrow. In the course of all these transactions he urged Lansdowne himself to take the Government, and offered to continue at the Council Office and lead the House of Commons, or to take no office at all, and give him independent support in the House of Commons, or to go to the House of Lords and give him his best assistance there; but Lord Lansdowne declined all these offers.

_February 5th._--I have often had occasion to remark on the difficulty of avoiding making false or erroneous statements in affairs like those I am treating of, for the reports which we hear from different people generally vary considerably, and sometimes the same thing repeated by the same person varies also; not that there is any intention to misrepresent or mislead, but circumstances apparently trifling are narrated differently according as the narrator has been impressed by, or remembers them, and thus errors creep in and accumulate, and at last it becomes difficult to reconcile statements that have become conflicting by degrees. However, I can only jot down what I hear, and reconcile the accounts afterwards as well as I can. Yesterday afternoon I saw Clarendon, who confirmed his refusal to join Lord John, but with some slight difference as to the details. He said he had spoken very openly to him, but so gravely and quietly that he could not take offence, and he did not. It was not till he received Clarendon's final refusal that he wrote to the Queen and threw up his commission.

LORD PALMERSTON TAKES OFFICE.

Her Majesty had seen Palmerston the day before, and told him if Lord John failed she should send for him, and accordingly she did so yesterday evening. Palmerston had told Lord John, as soon as he received the commission he should go to him. At present he has only invited Clarendon and Charles Wood (Whigs) to join him. Clarendon of course is ready, but Charles Wood demurs, and insists that unless Lord John will take office in the Government he cannot join, and that the whole thing will be a failure. Lord John is very averse to take office, and the more averse because he must then go to the House of Lords, for of course he cannot remain in the Commons, not leading it. The Duke of Bedford has been here in a grand quandary, seeing all sorts of difficulties, and in fact they spring up on every side. He agrees with Lord John, but was shaken by the arguments of Wood, which are backed up by George Grey and Panmure. I argued vehemently against Wood's view, and strongly advised Lord John's not taking office, and I convinced the Duke, who is gone back to Lord John to talk it all over with him again. On the other hand, the Peelites want the Government to be restored, with Aberdeen again at the head of it, and it is very questionable whether they will join at all, and, if they do, not without much difficulty and negotiation, which will at least consume valuable time. In short, at this moment the formation of a Palmerston Government, which was to be so easy, is a matter of enormous difficulty. The Queen wrote a civil and even kind answer to Lord John's note giving the task up.

_February 6th._--Great disappointment and dismay yesterday, the Peelites having refused to form part of Palmerston's Government. Graham, Gladstone, and Sidney Herbert all declined unless Aberdeen formed a part of it. Sidney Herbert was very willing to join, but would not separate himself from Gladstone, who was deaf to all entreaties and remonstrances. It is believed that Graham is the one who has persuaded Gladstone to take this course. Aberdeen is anxious, or pretends to be so, that they should join, and Newcastle certainly is. What Gladstone says is, that unless Aberdeen is in the Cabinet he can have no security that his (Aberdeen's) principles will be acted on, and that he may not be called upon to be a party to measures, relating either to war or peace, of which he disapproves. However, I have only heard second hand what he says in conversation with others. It has been in vain represented to him that there will be an explosion of indignation against them all in the country for refusing their aid at such a crisis, and their conduct will never be forgiven. All this, he says, he is aware of, but his objections stand on too high ground to be shaken. Palmerston means not to be baffled, and, failing the Peelites, to turn to the Whigs and make the best Government he can. His popularity, which is really extraordinary, will carry him through all difficulties for the present. It was supposed that his popularity had been on the wane, but it is evident that, though he no longer stands so high as he did in the House of Commons, and those who know him can easily see he is not the man he was, in the country there is just the same fancy for him and sanguine opinion of him as ever. John Russell made a rejoinder to Newcastle in the House of Commons last night--a plausible speech enough, and it served to set his friends and the Brooks's Whigs crowing again, and saying he had made out a complete case; but I do not see that it made his case a bit better than before. All who are at all behind the scenes are aware of the fallacies and deceptions in which his statements abound, and that they are of a nature that may not be exposed.

THE PALMERSTON ADMINISTRATION.

_February 7th._--Yesterday Aberdeen and Newcastle, particularly the latter, renewed their endeavours to prevail on Gladstone to give up his scruples and to join the Government, and at last they succeeded, and in the evening Palmerston was able to announce that he had accomplished his task and the Government was formed. John Russell, on his side, pressed all his Whig friends to unite with Palmerston, and by these means the difficulties were gradually overcome. Lord Lansdowne would not take the Council Office, but agreed to be the organ of the Government in the House of Lords, though he seems afraid this should be thought to have committed him to more trouble and responsibility than he is inclined to take, and it is only a sort of quasi-leadership that he will own to. I find the Queen did propose to him to form a Government, and under certain conditions he was not unwilling to undertake it, but of course he much prefers the present arrangement. It is admitted on all hands that both Aberdeen and Newcastle have behaved very well, and done all in their power to facilitate Palmerston's arrangements. It is, however, much to be regretted that these Peelites have acted in concert and _as a party_, and I see from the fact a vast deal of embarrassment and opposition to the Government in prospect. Already the Derbyites are sulky and angry to the greatest degree, and the Whigs not a little indignant that so much anxiety has been shown to get Gladstone and his friends, and such a high price paid for them; and the fact of their forming so large and important a part of the Government will secure the fierce hostility of the Derbyites, and make the support of the Whigs very lukewarm. The latter, too, will be influenced by John Russell, who, in spite of his present professions of amity and promises of support, is sure to be very soon a _frondeur_, and then in open and direct opposition. He told Clarendon 'he meant to give his best support to the Government.' Clarendon said, 'You do; well, at what do you think I value your support?' 'What?' he asked. 'Not one sixpence.' '_At first_ Palmerston will meet with no opposition to signify; if he does, he has only to dissolve, and the country will give him a majority. But opposition will gather about him soon enough; extravagant expectations are raised of the good he is to do and the great acts he is to perform, all which will only lead to disappointment and mortification. If the luck which for many years accompanied him should do so still, and some unexpected success crown his administration, he may thus gain a great position; but it is idle to depend on the chapter of accidents and, according to all human probability, he is destined to carry on a disastrous war or to make a peace (the wisest thing he can do) which will be humiliating, because so wholly incommensurate with our extravagant expectations and ridiculous pretensions. However, if any man can make such a peace it is Palmerston, and it is much better that Aberdeen should have no concern with the Government, for it would be much more difficult if he was in the Cabinet, and supposed to have any hand in it.[1]

[Footnote 1: The Administration formed by Lord Palmerston was composed as follows:--