Chapter IV

The Conference at Olmütz--The Turks declare War--Lord Palmerston's Views--Lord Palmerston lauded by the Radicals and the Tories--Failure of the Pacific Policy--Lord Aberdeen desires to resign--Lord John to be Prime Minister--Obstacles to Lord John's Pretensions--Danger of breaking up the Government--Lord John's Wilfulness and Unpopularity--Alliance of the Northern Powers defeated by Manteuffel--Conflict of the two Policies--Meeting of Parliament discussed--French Refugees in Belgium--General Baraguay d'Hilliers sent to Constantinople--Mr. Reeve returns from the East--Lord John's Reform Bill--The Emperor of Russia writes to the Queen--Sir James Graham's Views on Reform, &c.--Opponents of the Reform Scheme--Abortive Attempts at Negotiation--The Four Powers agree to a Protocol--Lord Palmerston threatens to secede--Lord Palmerston resigns on the Reform Scheme--Lord Palmerston opposed to Reform--Effects of Lord Palmerston's Resignation--Conciliatory Overtures--Lord Lansdowne's Position--Lord Aberdeen's Account--Lady Palmerston makes up the Dispute--Lord Palmerston withdraws his Resignation--Baraguay d'Hilliers refuses to enter the Black Sea--War resolved on--Review of the Transaction.

_October 4th._--I went to The Grove on Saturday, and spent great part of the afternoon on Sunday reading the Eastern Question despatches, printed in a Blue Book to be laid by-and-by before Parliament. On Sunday came Westmorland's account of his interviews with the Emperor of Russia and Nesselrode at Olmütz, which sounded very satisfactory, for the Emperor was very gracious and pacific, and Nesselrode in his name disclaimed in the most positive terms any intention of aggrandising himself at the expense of Turkey or of claiming any protectorate, or asserting any claims inconsistent with the sovereignty and independence of the Sultan, and moreover signified his willingness to make a declaration to that effect in such form and manner as might be hereafter agreed upon. All this was very well, and served to confirm the notion that, if some sensible men, really desirous of settling the question, could be brought together, the accomplishment would not be difficult; but the distance which separates the negotiating parties from each other, and the necessity of circulating every proposition through so many remote capitals, and the consequent loss of time, have rendered all conferences and pacific projects unavailing.

TURKISH DECLARATION OF WAR.

Yesterday morning a messenger arrived, bringing the telegraphic despatch from Vienna, which announced the determination of the Turks to go to war, and that a grand Council was to be assembled to decide on the declaration, news which precluded all hope of adjustment;[1] and yesterday afternoon the further account of the decision of the Council was received. Such of the Ministers as are in town met in the afternoon, and it was decided that all the rest should be summoned, and a Cabinet held on Friday next.

It will be no easy matter to determine what part we shall take, and how far we shall mix ourselves up in the quarrel as belligerents. It will be very fortunate if the Cabinet should be unanimous on this question. Palmerston has hitherto acted very frankly and cordially with Clarendon, but the old instincts are still strong in him, and they are all likely to urge him to recommend strong measures and an active interference. Granville told me last night he thought Palmerston was not at all displeased at the decision of the Turks, and as he still clings to the idea that Turkey is powerful and full of energy, and he is quite indifferent to the danger to which Austria may be exposed, and would rejoice at her being plunged in fresh difficulties and threatened with fresh rebellions and revolutions, he will rather rejoice than not at the breaking out of hostilities. He will not dare to avow his real propensities, but he will cloak them under other pretences and pretexts, and give effect to them as much as he can. He has been speechifying in Scotland, where, though he spoke very handsomely of Clarendon, he did not say one word in defence of Aberdeen, or anything calculated to put an end to the notion and repeated assertions that he and Aberdeen had been at variance on the Eastern Question. I find Aberdeen feels this omission very much, and it would certainly have been more generous, as well as more just, if he had taken the opportunity of correcting the popular error as to Aberdeen, after having been reaping a great harvest of popularity at his expense.

Palmerston's position is curious. He is certainly very popular, and there is a high idea of his diplomatic skill and vigour. He is lauded to the skies by all the Radicals who are the admirers of Kossuth and Mazzini, who want to renew the scenes and attempts of 1848, and who fancy that, if Palmerston were at the head of the Government, he would play into their hands. On the other hand, he is equally an object of the flattery and praise of the Tories, who cannot get over their being succeeded by a Peelite Prime Minister, and they cling to the belief that there can be no real cordiality, and must be complete difference of opinion, between Aberdeen and Palmerston, and they look forward to the prospect of their disunion to break up this odious Government, and a return to office with Palmerston at their head. These are the political chimeras with which their brains are filled, and which make them take (for very different reasons) the same part as the Radicals on the Eastern Question. My own conviction is that both parties reckon without their host. Palmerston is sixty-nine years old, and it is too late for him to look out for fresh political combinations and other connexions, nor would any object of ambition repay him for the dissolution of all his personal and social ties. He will, therefore, go on as he does now, accepting such popularity as is offered him as a means of enhancing his own importance in this Cabinet; and, in the event of any accident happening to it, of making his own pretensions available.

[Footnote 1: The declaration of the Turkish Council or Divan, held on October 3, was to the effect that, if the Principalities were not evacuated in fifteen days, a state of war would ensue. To this the Emperor of Russia responded on October 18 by a formal declaration of war. War being declared, the Straits were opened, and, at the request of the Sultan, the allied fleets entered the Dardanelles on October 22.]

_October 6th._--Delane was sent for by Lord Aberdeen the night before last, when they had a long conversation on the state of affairs, and Aberdeen told him that he was resolved to be no party to a war with Russia on such grounds as the present, and he was prepared to resign rather than incur such responsibility. This was the marrow of what he said, and very important, because not unlikely to lead to some difference in the Cabinet, and possibly to its dissolution.

FAILURE OF THE PACIFIC POLICY.

_October 7th._--Clanricarde called here yesterday morning; he is very strong against the Government and their policy, and maintains that if we had joined France and sent the fleet up when she did, the Emperor of Russia would then have receded, as his obstinacy was entirely caused by his conviction that France and England would never remain united, and that nothing would induce the latter to make war on Russia. He said this idea had been confirmed by the language of Aberdeen, who had continually spoken of his determination to avoid war to Brunnow and others, and in his letters to Madame de Lieven--_la paix à tout prix_. Clanricarde, however, himself said he would not declare war against Russia, and we might defend Turkey without going that length. I went and told Clarendon all he had said (in greater detail), and he owned that it was more than probable that Aberdeen had held some such language as was attributed to him; indeed, he had more than once had occasion to remonstrate with him upon it. Clarendon was very uneasy at the prospect of the discussion about to take place, and contemplates as extremely probable the breaking-up of the Government on the question of war. Palmerston has been very reserved, but always on the same friendly terms with his colleagues, and Clarendon in particular; but Lady Palmerston as usual talks _à qui veut l'entendre_ of the misconduct of the whole affair, and affirms that, if Palmerston had had the management of it, all would have been settled long ago. As matters have turned out, it is impossible not to regret that we were perhaps too moderate and patient at first; for as the course we have adopted has not been successful, it seems unfortunate we did not try another, which might have been more so. But this is judging _après coup_, and nothing is so easy as to affirm that, if something had been done, which was not done, success would have attended it.

_October 8th._--The Cabinet went off very well yesterday, no serious difference of opinion about anything, and a good concurrence both as to what had been done and what ought to be done hereafter. Lord Aberdeen is well pleased.

_Newmarket, October 12th._--This morning I met the Duke of Bedford on the heath, who told me he wanted very much to speak to me about certain communications he had received which made him extremely uneasy, and full of apprehension of coming difficulties, threatening the very existence of the Government. It seems that a short time ago Lord Aberdeen imparted to John Russell his wish to resign, and to place the Government in his hands. He said that he had only taken his present post because his doing so was indispensable to the formation of the Government, and had always contemplated Lord John's eventually succeeding him, and he thought the time was now come when he might very properly do so. He did not anticipate any insurmountable opposition in any quarter, and he should himself speak to Gladstone about it, who was the most important person to be consulted, and he was in fact only prevented doing so, as he had intended, by not being able to go to Scotland, where he had expected to meet Gladstone. Whether Aberdeen had spoken to Gladstone since his return to London, the Duke of Bedford did not know. No steps appear to have been taken with regard to Palmerston, nor does it appear that any progress was made in accomplishing this change. The Queen had been apprised of Aberdeen's intentions. Such was the state of things when a short time ago the Duke received a letter from Lord John, in which he said that matters could not go on as they were, and that there must be some changes; and that very soon he could no longer act without being primarily responsible for the policy of the Government--in other words, without resuming his post of Prime Minister. This is all the Duke knows, as Lord John entered into no explanations or details, and he is in total ignorance of the grounds of his brusque determination, and of what can have occurred to produce it. He sees, however, all the difficulties and embarrassments that in consequence of it are looming in the distance, and how very possible it is that the Government may be broken up. All this we very fully discussed, but without either of us being able to guess what it all means, or what the result will be of Lord John's putting his intentions into execution.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S PRETENSIONS.

_October 16th._--I came to town yesterday morning, and in the afternoon went to the Foreign Office, and saw Clarendon, to whom I imparted what the Duke of Bedford had told me. He said he knew it all, Aberdeen having told him what had passed between John Russell and himself; but having made Clarendon give his word of honour that he would not say a word of it to anybody, so he said, 'I would not mention it even to you, to whom I tell everything.' He then, however, went into the whole question, and told me what had passed, which did not exactly agree with the Duke's story. According to Clarendon, Lord John went to Lord Aberdeen before Parliament was up, and told him he could not consent to go on in his present position, to which Aberdeen replied, 'Very well, you only meet my own wishes, and you know I always told you that I should be at any time ready to resign my place to you.'

Nothing more seems to have taken place at that time, nor till lately, when Lord John went again to Aberdeen, and repeated his determination not to go on; but this time the communication does not seem to have been received by Aberdeen with the same ready acquiescence in the proposed change, and some plain speaking took place between them. I infer, but as Clarendon did not expressly say so I put it dubiously, that Aberdeen had spoken to Gladstone and ascertained that he would by no means agree to the substitution of John Russell, and should go with Aberdeen if he retired. At all events, while Aberdeen told him that he was prepared, if he wished it, to broach the matter to his colleagues, he intimated to him that it was evident he wanted to turn him out, and put himself in his place, but that he (Aberdeen) could not agree to retire at this moment, and before Parliament met, and that Lord John had better well consider the step he was about to take, as it would in all probability break up the Government, and asked him if he was prepared to encounter the odium of doing so, more especially as he must remember that he had only consented to form this Government on Lord John's own assurance to him that he was himself unable to form one. He asked him if he was secure of Palmerston's concurrence in the change he proposed, and he replied that he did not expect to find any difficulty in that quarter. This was the substance of what passed between them, Aberdeen being evidently a good deal nettled, and thinking Lord John is behaving very ill. This is Clarendon's opinion also, and he thinks, if Lord John persists, the Government will be inevitably broken up, for a considerable part of the Cabinet will certainly not consent to have Lord John again placed at the head of the Government. Clarendon does not believe a word of Palmerston's being a party to it, and he knows that both Gladstone and Newcastle would resign. Graham he is not sure of, but inclines to think he would retire with Aberdeen, especially if Aberdeen has any compulsion or ill-usage to complain of. For the moment, however, this storm has blown over, as Lord John has signified to Aberdeen that he does not mean to press the matter again for the present. The Queen, when it was mentioned to her, was anything but approving of or consenting to the change.

THEIR MISCHIEVOUS EFFECTS.

In all this matter there is little doubt that Lord John has been instigated by his connexions, and they none of them, Lord John himself included, have sense enough to see that the course he is adopting is quite suicidal, and would be not less fatal to his own reputation and popularity than to the Government he belongs to. He failed as Prime Minister, and no credit attended his Administration, and no regret his fall. The popularity he lost, he in good measure regained by his conduct on the formation of this Government, when he waived his own pretensions, and for the public good consented, after having held the first place, to accept the second; but the world does not know how reluctantly and grudgingly he did this, and how sorely his pride and vanity suffered on that occasion. The position he occupied of leader of the House of Commons without an office was anomalous, and many thought it objectionable, but he himself insisted on it, and it proved successful. The House of Commons not only accepted it, but were pleased to see a man so eminent eschewing office with its functions and emoluments, and gratuitously devoting himself to the service and the business of Parliament. He became popular again in the House, and would have been more so if he had not chosen to quit the Treasury Bench early every afternoon, and go down to Richmond, leaving Palmerston to do his work, and ingratiate himself with the House. Aberdeen reminded Lord John that this position, which he now found intolerable, was one he had chosen to make for himself; that he had not only declared he could not form a Government, but that every office had been at his disposal, and he had been invited to take the greatest offices, or, if he preferred it, any smaller one, but that he had insisted on holding none. Aberdeen is quite right not to resign now, or before Parliament meets, where he must appear as Minister to defend his own policy.

I expect that Lord John will not renew his demands for some time, if at all; but if he does, this is what will probably take place. The Government will be broken up, Lord John will try to form one and will fail, and the Government will again be constituted minus Lord John. Nobody would, I think, go out with him. This is supposing (which I think certain) that Palmerston would not make common cause with him, but prefer to remain with the rest. There would then remain the great difficulty of the lead of the House of Commons and the part Palmerston would play; but, dangerous as it would be, it would probably be found necessary to trust him with the lead, most distasteful though it would be both to Aberdeen and to the Queen.

_October 18th._--The Emperor of Russia moved heaven and earth to bring about a new Holy Alliance between himself, Austria, and Prussia, in which he would have succeeded if it had not been for the wisdom and firmness of Manteuffel,[1] who was proof against all his seductions. Austria consented, but only on condition that Prussia did likewise. The King of Prussia would have given way with his characteristic weakness, but Manteuffel would not hear of it, and contrived to keep his master straight. In an interview of two hours between the Emperor and Manteuffel _tête-à-tête_, the Emperor employed all the means he could think of to prevail on the Prussian Minister, but all in vain; he refused positively to allow Prussia to depart from her neutrality. This had the effect of keeping Austria neutral also, and that of making the Emperor more inclined to peace; but the Turkish declaration of war and peremptory summons to him to quit the Principalities leave him no alternative but that of taking up the gauntlet thus thrown down.

[Footnote 1: Count Manteuffel was the Prussian Minister for Foreign Affairs, and the leading member of the Prussian Cabinet. He was accused of sacrificing Prussian interests to those of Austria at the Conference of Olmütz; but in fact he succeeded in defeating what would have been a very formidable confederacy of the German Powers with Russia.]

OBJECTIONS OF LORD PALMERSTON.

_November 2nd._--All last week at Newmarket, during which nothing of moment occurred but the renewed attempts at negotiation, and the consent of the Turks to defer the commencement of hostilities. I saw Clarendon the day before yesterday, who told me how matters stood, and showed me a despatch just received from Vienna with a copy of a very moderate and pacific Note from Nesselrode to Buol, showing that there is every disposition at St. Petersburg to patch matters up. Clarendon told me that he was heartily sick of the whole question, in which the double trouble and difficulty were cast upon him of reconciling the Russians and the Turks and of preserving agreement in the Cabinet, where Aberdeen was always opposing measures of hostility towards Russia, and Palmerston for pushing them forward. He said he steered between the two, and that he and John Russell were more nearly agreed than any of the others; he told me at the same time a characteristic trait of Palmerston. The Turks having determined to plunge into war against the advice of their protectors, especially against our's, and it having been made known to us that the Sultan and his Ministers were not disinclined to be guided by us, but that they were themselves overruled and driven to this extreme course by the Grand Council, it became necessary in Clarendon's opinion to notify to the Turkish Government that, since they had thought fit to take their own independent course, we should reserve to ourselves the right of acting according to our own discretion, and not consider ourselves bound to be dragged into a war at the heels of the Grand Council, which is an assembly of ruffians and fanatics, by whom it would be utterly inconsistent with the dignity of our Crown that our policy should be governed and influenced. It seems too that this is a point on which the Queen feels very strongly, and is exceedingly anxious that the honour and dignity of the Crown should not be compromised. Accordingly Clarendon drew up a despatch to this effect, to which the Cabinet acceded, and Palmerston also, though with some reluctance. However, he not only saw the proposed despatch, but he made some alteration in it with his own hand, thereby of course subscribing to it. Just after this Clarendon went to Windsor, and submitted the despatch to the Queen and the Prince; they objected to it that it was not strong enough in their sense, but Clarendon prevailed upon them to waive their objections, and, as it had been agreed to in the Cabinet, to let it go. But before it was gone Clarendon received a letter from Palmerston, strongly objecting to the despatch altogether, and desiring Clarendon to inform Lord Aberdeen that he would be no party to such a communication. This was extremely embarrassing. Clarendon spoke to Aberdeen, and afterwards (at Aberdeen's suggestion) informed the Queen what had occurred. Her Majesty said, 'I advise you not to attach much importance to this communication. I know Lord Palmerston from much experience, and it is probably only an attempt to bully, which, if you take no notice of it, you will hear no more of.' The result justified the Queen's sagacity, for Clarendon sent off the despatch, and at the same time wrote word to Palmerston that he had done so, giving him sundry reasons why he could not do otherwise, to which he received in reply a very good-humoured letter, merely saying that, as it was gone, it was useless to say any more about it, and probably it would do no harm.

There has been talk abroad and discussion in the Cabinet about the meeting of Parliament. Lord John and Lord Aberdeen both wished Parliament to meet, the first because he is always hankering after the House of Commons, the latter because he wished Parliament to decide on the question of peace or war, so that in the one alternative his hands might be strengthened, or in the other he might have a pretext for resigning. But both Clarendon and Palmerston were much against it, and now that there is a fresh prospect of peace, it is rendered more unnecessary and undesirable.

King Leopold is here, still uneasy (though less than he was) upon the subject of his _démêlés_ with the Emperor of the French. The cause of them is the libellous publications of the French refugees in Belgium. They compose the most outrageous attacks of a personal nature on him and the Empress, which they have printed in Belgium, and get these papers smuggled into France, and disseminated amongst the lower classes, and particularly the troops. This naturally gives the Emperor great offence, and Leopold would afford him redress if he could; but the Constitution was made by journalists, and the unrestrained liberty of the press is so interwoven with the Constitution, that the Legislature itself has no power to deal with the case, nor any power short of a Constituent Assembly. All this Leopold has submitted to his powerful neighbour, and their relations seem to be more amicable; for very civil letters have passed between the two monarchs, through the Prince de Chimay, whom Leopold sent to compliment the Emperor when he went lately to Lille.

LORD STRATFORD'S INFLUENCE.

_November 10th._--All attempts at settling the Eastern Question by _Notes_ have been rudely interrupted by the actual commencement of hostilities. Meanwhile the Notes sped their way, but at Vienna it was deemed no longer possible to settle it in this manner, but that there must now be a regular treaty of peace, the terms of which the Allies might prescribe, and there is now a question of having a Congress or Conference here, to carry on the affair. It is, however, difficult to make out what the French are at, and, with all our intimacy, we must keep on our guard against all contingencies on the part of our Imperial neighbour. Nobody knows what is his real motive for sending Baraguay d'Hilliers to Constantinople. Francis Baring, when I told him of this appointment, said it could be only for the purpose of quarrelling, for he was the most violent of men, and was certain to quarrel with whomsoever he had to deal. If this be so, his quarrelling with Lord Stratford is inevitable, and it is by no means improbable that Louis Napoleon is tired of playing second fiddle to us, and sends this General there for the express purpose of counteracting our superior influence, and, by the tender of military counsel and aid, to substitute his own for ours.

Reeve is just returned from the East, having spent some time at Constantinople, and he came home by Vienna. Lord Stratford treated him with great kindness and hospitality, and talked to him very openly. He says that Stratford exercised a great but not unlimited influence and control over the Turkish Government, and of course is very jealous of the influence he possesses; for example, he boasted to Reeve that he had carried a great point, and had procured the appointment of the candidate he favoured as Greek Patriarch, an interference which, if it had been made by the Emperor of Russia, whose concern it is much more than our's, would have excited in us great indignation. Such an exercise of influence and in such a matter, of which the Russians are well aware, is calculated to exasperate them, and it is not unnatural that the Emperor should feel that, if any foreign influence is to prevail in Turkey, he has a better right than any other Power to establish his own. Reeve has a very poor opinion of the power, resources, and political condition of Turkey, and does not doubt the military success of the Russians. He says that the corruption is enormous--everybody bribes or is bribed. The Greek Patriarch whom Stratford got appointed had to pay large sums to Redschid Pasha and his son. The whole State is rotten to the core.

EFFECTS OF DEMOCRATIC REFORM.

_November 12th._--This morning John Russell breaks ground on the Reform plan, by referring his scheme to a Committee of the Cabinet, which is to meet at his house, consisting, besides himself, of Granville, Newcastle, Graham, Charles Wood, and Palmerston. I am afraid he will propose a lower franchise, probably 5_l._, in spite of many warnings and the signs of the times, which are very grave and alarming--nothing but strikes and deep-rooted discontent on the part of the working classes. I am in correspondence with Ellesmere on the subject, and have sent his letters to John Russell, who does not appear disposed to admit the force of his reasoning against lowering the franchise. This Committee will probably be on the whole favourable to a democratic measure, Lord John from old prejudices and obstinacy, Graham from timidity, Newcastle because he has espoused Liberal principles; Granville will be inclined to go with Lord John, and Palmerston alone is likely to stand out against a democratic scheme, unless Charles Wood should go with him, of whose opinions on the question of Reform I know nothing. Aberdeen is himself a Reformer, but I hear he is resolved not to consent to a 5_l._ franchise. I confess to great misgivings about this project in the present state of the country, and dread the further progress of democratic power. The success of the great Reform Bill and the experiences of twenty years without any of the apprehensions of the anti-Reformers having been realised, are now in my opinion sources of danger, as they create an opinion that progress, as it is called, is not only necessary, but perfectly safe. It consoles me for growing old that I shall not live to see the confusion in which this well-ordered State is likely to be involved, the period of peril and suffering it will have to go through, and the reaction, which will restore order and tranquillity at the expense of that temperate and rational freedom, which we alone of all the nations of the earth are in possession of. I see no reason why, if we choose recklessly, and without any cause, to cast away the good we enjoy, we should be exempted from paying the penalty which our folly and wickedness would so richly deserve. The above question in all its ramifications is infinitely more important than the Russian and Turkish quarrel, but there is no saying how the former may be indirectly and consequentially affected through the latter by means of the political differences which may arise out of it. Everything now looks black in the political horizon, and the war which has begun between the principals can hardly fail to extend itself sooner or later to the collateral parties.

_November 15th._--Yesterday morning having met Clarendon on the railway, he from Windsor, I from Hillingdon, I got into the carriage and went home with him. He told me all he had to tell, of what he had to go through with the conflicting proposals of Palmerston and Aberdeen in the Cabinet: the latter as averse as ever to any strong measures, and always full of consideration for the Emperor; the former anxious for war, and with the same confidence and rashness which were so conspicuous in him during the Syrian question, insisting that nothing will be so easy as to defeat Russia, and he now goes the length of urging that none of the old treaties between her and the Porte should be renewed. All this _jactance_, however, does not go much beyond words, for he evinces no disposition to separate from his colleagues or to insist on any course which the majority of the Cabinet object to.

The Emperor of Russia has taken the unusual step of writing an autograph letter to the Queen. Brunnow, who was rather puzzled, took the letter to Aberdeen, and asked what he was to do with it. Aberdeen told him to take it to Clarendon, who sent it to the Queen. She sent it to him to read, and he suggested certain heads of an answer, but did not communicate the letter, nor the fact of its having been received, to any one but Aberdeen. The Queen wrote an answer in French, and he says a very good one.

Cowley has sent him an account of a conversation he lately had with the Emperor Napoleon, in which he said that the condition of France and the rise in the price of provisions, so deeply affecting the working classes, made him more than ever bent upon preserving peace, and he proposed that the Powers should be invited to concur with England and France in drawing up a scheme of pacification and arrangement, which should be tendered to the belligerents, and whichever should refuse to accept it should be treated as an enemy. Clarendon said that there were many objections to this plan, but he seemed to believe in the sincerity of the Emperor's desire for peace, in spite of the opposite presumption afforded by Baraguay d'Hilliers' mission, and its accompaniment of French officers. He attributes that mission to the wounded vanity of France, and the determination of the Government to send some man who shall dispute the influence of Stratford, and assert that of France. The character of Stratford had been fully explained to Baraguay d'Hilliers, and he went, ostensibly at least, with instructions and an intention to act with him in harmony, but this the character of the two ambassadors will probably render quite impossible.

The Queen told Clarendon an anecdote of Palmerston, showing how exclusively absorbed he is with _foreign_ politics. Her Majesty has been much interested in and alarmed at the strikes and troubles in the North, and asked Palmerston for details about them, when she found he knew nothing at all. One morning, after previous enquiries, she said to him, 'Pray, Lord Palmerston, have you any news?' To which he replied, 'No, Madam, I have heard nothing; but it seems certain the _Turks have crossed the Danube_.'

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S REFORM BILL.

In the afternoon I called on Graham at the Admiralty, and had a long talk with him about the Government and its prospects, and the disposition and intentions of John Russell and of Palmerston. He is, contrary to custom, very cheerful and sanguine on these points; he was apprised of all that Lord John has said and done, but except on one occasion, just about the time of the prorogation, has had no communication with Lord John himself on the subject. He is now satisfied that Lord John has abandoned his designs, and has made up his mind to go on as he is, and he infers this from his frank and friendly conduct about the Reform Bill, which he has not kept to himself, but submitted to a Committee for the purpose of bringing it before all his colleagues in a very good spirit, and quite willing to have Palmerston on this Committee, from whom the greatest opposition was to be expected. Graham said their first meeting had gone off very pleasantly, and Palmerston had urged much less objection than he had expected; he thinks therefore that his own reflexions and his knowledge of the difficulties which would oppose themselves to his purpose have determined Lord John to acquiesce in his present position, nor is he afraid of Palmerston separating himself from this Cabinet, thinking that at his age he will not speculate so deeply for the chance of greater power and a higher place, to be purchased at the certain sacrifice of all his social relations and personal connexions, and he therefore expects Palmerston will conform to the general sentiments and decisions of his colleagues, both as to foreign policy and to Reform. Graham said he approved entirely of Lord John's scheme, and thought his proposed measure good and safe.

_November 27th._--Council at Windsor on Friday 25th. The Queen was afflicted by the Queen of Portugal's death, though they never saw each other but once when they were children. I heard the particulars of the Reform Bill, which (if there is to be one at all) seems as little mischievous as can be. It seems to have encountered little or no opposition in the Cabinet, and Lord John considers it as having been accepted and settled there. Lord Lansdowne has not pronounced himself positively; but though, no doubt, he dislikes it exceedingly, they think he will not retire upon it, and up to the present time he has indicated no such intention. Graham, who is always frightened, told me on Friday he was very uneasy lest Lansdowne should decline to be a party to it.

Palmerston has written a letter to Lord John, strong in the beginning, denouncing the measure as unnecessary and unwise, and complaining of his having originally committed his colleagues to it, by declaring his own opinion without any previous consultation and concert with them. Then, after criticising the Bill (ably, as I am told), he ends by announcing that he shall consent to it. He sent copies of this letter to Aberdeen and to Lansdowne.

I brought Clarendon from the station to Downing Street, when he told me that he had begun some fresh attempts at renewing negotiations. The proposal of the Emperor Napoleon to force terms on the two parties would not do, but he had sent a proposal of some sort (I could not exactly make out what), which, contrary to his expectation, Buol had agreed to; but he did not seem very sanguine about any result from this beginning. He said nothing could exceed the difficulties of the case, nor the embarrassments of his own position. The Turks are now indisposed to agree to anything, or to make any concessions whatever, and of course the Emperor of Russia neither will nor can make peace and withdraw, without some plausible satisfaction. Then at home the difficulty is just as great between Palmerston, who is all for going ahead, and wants nothing less than war with Russia, and Aberdeen, who is in the other extreme--objecting to everything, and proposing nothing. John Russell is very reasonable, and agrees almost entirely with Clarendon; but whenever he thinks he is going to be outbid by Palmerston, is disposed to urge some violent measures also. He said he had a regular scene with Aberdeen the other day. After this Note (or whatever it was) had been discussed and agreed to in the Cabinet, and all settled, Aberdeen came into his room, and began finding fault with it, and raising all sorts of objections, when Clarendon, out of all patience, broke out: 'Really, this is too bad. You come now, after it has all been settled in the Cabinet where you let it pass, and make all sorts of objections. And this is the way you do about everything; you object to all that is proposed, and you never suggest anything yourself. What is it you want? Will you say what you would have done?' He declares he said all this with the greatest vivacity, being really exasperated. Aberdeen had nothing to say, and knocked under. The truth seems to be that the attacks upon him in the newspapers (though they don't know it) are pretty well justified, and very little exaggerated; nor is the idea of Palmerston's real inclination much mistaken. They have by accident very nearly hit upon the truth. Aberdeen, it seems, objects particularly to have any Conference _here_, and if there is to be anything of the kind, it seems likely to take place at Vienna, where, however, somebody would be sent to assist, if not to supersede, Westmorland.

PROTOCOL OF THE FOUR POWERS.

_December 10th._--The Protocol just signed at Vienna brings the four Powers together again, and Austria not only signed it with alacrity, but Buol told Westmorland, if the Emperor of Russia was found unmanageable, 'Nous irons avec vous jusqu'au bout.' The Turks are now desired to say on what terms they will make peace, and I expect they will reply that they will not make peace at all till the Principalities are evacuated. It seems very doubtful whether this fresh opening will lead to any result between two Powers so impracticable as the belligerents.

The Duke of Bedford has been endeavouring to persuade Lord John to reconsider the franchise in his Reform Bill, and Lord John tells him not to be afraid of its going too low, and that there is more chance of its appearing too niggardly. Aberdeen said it was not yet settled. Meanwhile, the Bill is drawn and privately printed. Lord John considers it to have been accepted by the Cabinet, and that he is sure of the acquiescence of the two principal dissentients--Lansdowne and Palmerston. The former went out of town, only saying that he hoped the landed interest would have its due share of influence. Palmerston's letter I have already mentioned; but the other day Lady Palmerston held forth to the Duke against the Bill, and said that it was not settled at all, but was still under the consideration of the Cabinet; from which he infers that Palmerston is still making or prepared to make objections and difficulties. Between Reform and the Eastern Question, I think this Government would infallibly be broken up but from the impossibility of another being formed. I am still persuaded Palmerston will not try a new combination, and break with all his old friends and associates for the purpose of putting himself at the head of some fresh but unformed combination. Great as his ambition is, he will not sacrifice so much to it, and risk so much as this would oblige him to do.

_December 12th._--I begin to think that I am after all mistaken as to Palmerston's intentions, and that his ambition will drive him to sacrifice everything and risk everything, in spite of his age and of all the difficulties he will have to encounter. I have said what passed between the Duke of Bedford and Lady Palmerston about Reform. This morning the Duke of Bedford came here, and told me he had called on Clarendon on Saturday, when he said to Clarendon that he was very uneasy about Palmerston, and thought he was meditating something, though he did not know exactly what he was at. Clarendon interrupted him--'Certainly, he is meditating breaking up the Government; in fact, he told me so.' At this moment it was announced that two or three foreign Ministers were waiting to see him, when he abruptly broke off the conference, and they parted. I said, 'Depend upon it, what Clarendon alluded to was not the Reform Bill, but the Eastern Question; and it is on that that Palmerston is making a stir.' The Duke said he thought so too; indeed, he was sure of it, because Clarendon did not trouble himself about Reform, and he had already told him more than once what excessive trouble and annoyance he had had between the widely opposite views and opinions of Aberdeen and Palmerston, and that he had only been able to go on at all from the agreement between Lord John and himself. However, Lord John is to see Aberdeen this morning, and his brother afterwards; and before the day is over we shall learn something more of this disagreeable matter. My belief is that the differences between Aberdeen and Palmerston have arrived at a height which threatens a break up, and that, with reference to this occurring, Palmerston is also going back on the Reform question; that if he does separate from the Government, he may reserve to himself to work _both_ questions. But I refrain from further speculations, as in a few hours they will be resolved into certainty of some sort.

LORD PALMERSTON'S RESIGNATION.

_Panshanger, December 14th._--It turned out that Palmerston had _struck_ on account of Reform, and not (ostensibly, at least) about foreign affairs. John Russell was indignant, and inveighed to his brother against Palmerston in terms of great bitterness, saying he was absolutely faithless, and no reliance to be placed on him. Of this fact these pages contain repeated proofs, but I own I am amazed at his making this flare up on the question of Reform. But his whole conduct is inexplicable, and there is no making out what he is at. The news of the Turkish disaster in the Black Sea is believed, but Government will do nothing about it till they receive authentic intelligence and detailed accounts of the occurrence.[1] So Clarendon told Reeve on Monday, but he is disposed to take a decisive part if it all turns out to be true; and yesterday Delane had a long conversation with Aberdeen, who owned that if the Russians (as they suppose) attacked a convoy of transports at anchor, it is a very strong case, and he thought war much more probable than it was a few days ago, and he did not speak as if he was determined in no case to declare it. This does not surprise me, in spite of his previous tone; for he has gone so far that he may be compelled in common consistency to go farther.

[Footnote 1: The Russian fleet in the Black Sea attacked and destroyed the Turkish squadron in the harbour of Sinope on November 30. This decisive event, which was at variance with the previous declarations of the Emperor of Russia, compelled the British and French Governments to order their fleets to enter the Black Sea and occupy it. The Russian fleet withdrew within the harbours of Sebastopol.]

_London, December 17th._--Yesterday morning the news of Palmerston's resignation was made public. It took everybody by surprise, few having been aware that he objected to the Reform measure in contemplation. I received the intelligence at Panshanger, and as soon as I got to town went to Clarendon to hear all about it. He had been quite prepared for it, Palmerston having told him that he could not take this Bill. Clarendon says Palmerston behaved perfectly well, and in a very straightforward way from first to last. When he was invited to join the Government, he told Aberdeen and Lansdowne that he was afraid the Reform Bill would bring about another separation between them. When the time arrived for discussing the Bill, and John Russell proposed to him to be on the Committee, he said that he accepted, because, although he saw no necessity for any Reform Bill, and he entirely disapproved of John Russell's having committed himself to such a measure, he would not (as matters stood) absolutely object to any measure whatever, but would join the Committee, discuss it, state all his objections, and endeavour to procure such alterations in it as might enable him to accept it. Finding himself unable to do this with the Committee, he still waited till the measure had been brought before the whole Cabinet; and when he found that his objections were unavailing, and that the majority of his colleagues were resolved to take Lord John's scheme, nothing was left for him but to retire. He said he might have consented to a smaller measure of disfranchisement, and the appropriation of the disposable seats to the counties, but to the enlarged _town_ representation, and especially to the proposed franchise, he could not agree; and moreover he said he was not prepared, _at his time of life_, to encounter endless debates in the House of Commons on such a measure. The first time, Clarendon said, he had ever heard him acknowledge that he had _a time of life_. Clarendon showed me a very friendly letter Palmerston had written to him, expressing regret at leaving them, and saying he (Clarendon) had a very difficult task before him, and, 'as the Irishman said, I wish yer Honner well through it.' He has never hinted even at any dissatisfaction as to foreign affairs as forming a part of his grounds for resigning.

Clarendon said he thought it would ere long be the means of breaking up the Government, and I thought so too; but, on reflecting more deliberately upon the matter, I am disposed to take a different view of the political probability, and of the part which Palmerston will play. As I have been so constantly opposed to him, and have both entertained and expressed so bad an opinion of him on a great many occasions, I feel the more both bound and inclined to do justice to his conduct upon this one, in which, so far as I am informed, he really has been irreproachable. The first thing which seems to have suggested itself to everybody is that he has resigned with the intention of putting himself at the head of the opponents of Reform, of joining the Derbyite party, and ultimately coming into office with Derby, or forming, if possible, a Government of his own. I doubt all this, and judge of his future conduct by his past. If he had been actuated by selfish and separate objects of ambition, and really contemplated transferring himself from the Whig to the Tory party, or setting up an independent standard, instead of breaking with this Cabinet on the question of Reform, he would certainly have done so upon the Turkish war, as he easily could. He would then have gone out amidst shouts of applause; he would have put the Government into an immense difficulty, and he would have reserved to himself to take whatever course he thought fit about Reform. He has acted much more honestly, but less cunningly for his own interest, supposing that he has the views and projects that are attributed to him. Lord Lansdowne is placed in great embarrassment, for he agrees entirely with Palmerston; and if he acts consistently on his own convictions, he will retire too--that is, cease to form a part of the Cabinet. Clarendon expects he will do so.

MOTIVES OF LORD PALMERSTON'S RESIGNATION.

_Hatchford, December 21st._--On Monday when I came to town from Goodwood, where I went on Sunday, I found a letter from Lady Palmerston, very friendly indeed. She said her son William had told her what I had said to him about Palmerston and his resignation, which had gratified her. She then went on to explain why he had resigned, and why at this moment instead of waiting longer; she said he would have accepted a Reform Bill, but wanted Lord John's to be altered, had proposed alterations, and written to Aberdeen to urge them, and upon Aberdeen's reply that his suggestions could not be taken, he had no alternative but to resign, and he had thought it fairer to the Government to do so at once, and give them time to make their arrangements, than to put it off till the last moment, when Parliament was on the point of meeting. I confess I think he was right in so doing, and I was greatly provoked with the 'Times' for attacking him, twitting and sneering at him, and finding fault with him for his desertion; so provoked that I wrote a letter to the 'Times,' which appeared on Tuesday, with my opinion thereupon.

On Tuesday morning I was surprised at receiving a letter from Lord Lansdowne, entreating I would tell him what was said, and what was the state of public opinion about Palmerston's resignation, giving me to understand that he was as yet undecided what course he should adopt, and should not decide at all events till he had seen the Queen next Friday; he also said that he had been greatly surprised at this happening '_so soon_, whatever might have been the case later, having occurred (marvellous to say) before there had been any decision taken by the Government as such on the whole matter, or any ground for me at least to think that issue would be joined upon it without that apparently essential preliminary.' I wrote to him in reply all I had heard of the reports and notions floating about, and said I hoped his determination would eventually be not to withdraw, and I sent him Lady Palmerston's letter to me, which I said seemed to me somewhat at variance with his statement, in as much as Palmerston evidently considered that the matter was settled. I don't understand, however, why he wrote to Aberdeen, if the question was still before the Cabinet, and not yet definitively settled. Assuming Lord Lansdowne's statement to have been correct, Palmerston ought to have disputed the matter in the Cabinet, and if overruled there, he might have resigned, and not till then.

Delane went to Aberdeen, and asked him for his version of the affair, when he said at once he had no hesitation in saying that the Eastern Question was the cause and the sole cause of Palmerston's resignation; that he had all along been opposing what was done, and might have resigned upon it any time for months past, and that but for that question he would have swallowed the Reform Bill. Delane observed, if this was true, Palmerston had acted a very highminded and disinterested part. It has been imprudent of the Government papers to insist so strenuously that Palmerston resigned solely on account of Reform, and that there was no difference on foreign policy, because this elicited a violent article in the 'Morning Post,' insisting in turn that the Eastern Question was the real cause of his retirement, and everybody will believe that this was inserted or dictated by himself. It is strange to find myself the advocate and apologist of Palmerston, when the preceding pages are brimful of censure of his acts and bad opinion of his character; but, whatever prejudices I may have or have had against him, they never shall prevent my saying what I believe to be true, and doing him ample justice, when I think that he is acting honourably, fairly, and conscientiously. This letter of Lord Lansdowne's has a little shaken my convictions, but still I am struck with the fact of his having refrained from resigning on the Eastern Question, when by so doing he might have damaged the Government immensely, and obtained for himself increased popularity and considerable power if these were his objects.

LADY PALMERSTON'S STATEMENT.

_London, December 22nd._--I went to town this morning, called on Lady Palmerston, found her in good spirits and humour, and vastly pleased at all the testimonies of approbation and admiration he has received. She exclaimed with exultation, 'He is always in the right in everything he does,' a position I could not confirm, and which I did not care to dispute. We then talked of the present crisis, when to my no small amazement she said that she saw no reason now why it should not be made up, and he should not remain, that he left the Government with regret, liked his office, and had no wish to quit his colleagues, but could not consent to such a measure as Lord John had proposed. She then recapitulated what she wrote to me, and complained of Aberdeen's having replied to Palmerston's note in such a style of peremptory refusal; if he had only expressed regret at the difference, and proposed a fresh reference to the Cabinet, it might have been avoided. Still, she thought if they were disposed to be reasonable it was possible to repair the breach. Palmerston had never had any answer to his letter of resignation, no notice had been taken of it, nor had the Queen's acceptance of his resignation ever been conveyed to him. She talked with bitterness of the articles in the 'Times,' and of his resignation having been so hastily published, and said he had all along been very much dissatisfied with the conduct of the Eastern Question, and convinced that, if his advice had been taken at first, we should not be in our present dilemma and embarrassing position, and he had only consented to stay in the Government, when overruled in his suggestions, because he thought he could nevertheless effect some good by remaining, and tender essential aid to Clarendon. I expressed the strongest desire that the matter might be patched up, and entreated her to try and bring it about. Palmerston was gone out, so I did not see him.

I then went to the Office, and directly wrote to Graham, who was at the Cabinet, begging him to see me, and telling him I had reason to believe Palmerston was not disinclined to stay. Meanwhile Bessborough called on me, and told me all the reports from Marylebone and other parts of the metropolis, as well as the country; all represented Palmerston's popularity to be immense, great enthusiasm about the Eastern Question, and profound indifference about Reform; and he said there was a report that Palmerston was not unlikely to stay in, and that it was of the greatest importance that he should. He also said that Hayter declared there was no chance whatever of their carrying the Reform Bill in the House of Commons, especially if Palmerston headed the opposition to it.

He was hardly gone when Graham came to me. I told him all that had passed between Lady Palmerston and me, and entreated him to see if something could not be done. He said he himself should be too happy to bring it about if possible, and he had no personal ground of complaint, but he did not know how Lord John might be disposed, particularly as Palmerston in one of his letters had spoken in very uncourteous terms of him and Aberdeen. He said it was wonderful how Palmerston, quite unlike most men, was often intemperate with his pen, while he was always very guarded in his language. In reply to some of the things Lady Palmerston had said, he told me that the difficulty was that Palmerston's objections went to the _principle_ of the measure, and though the details might still be open to discussion, it was impossible they could concede the principles of the measure without dishonour, and this was not to be thought of. That with regard to fresh reference to the Cabinet, Palmerston had stated all his objections to the Cabinet, when they had been considered and overruled, therefore another reference to the _Cabinet_ would have been useless. He asked me if Palmerston was prepared to give up his objections. I said I presumed not, but he must understand that I did not know what he was prepared to concede or require, only what I had repeated, that he was not disinclined still to remain if the matter admitted of adjustment. He said the office was still open, and that the Cabinet then going on was not about filling it up, but entirely on the Eastern Question. After a good deal of talk we parted, he promising to see what could be done to bring about a compromise and reconciliation.

A RECONCILIATION.

I then wrote to Lord Lansdowne telling him what had passed, and suggested that, as he is to see the Queen tomorrow, he should invoke her assistance to settle this affair, and so the matter stands. I am satisfied that at this moment Palmerston would prefer staying where he is to anything else, present or prospective, and he does not wish to embark in fresh combinations; but it is impossible to say what he may not do under fresh circumstances, and if he is exposed to all the attractions of excessive flattery and the means of obtaining great power. If this Government should be overthrown, I see no other man who could form one. Derby is in such a deplorable state of health that I do not think he could possibly undertake it, and though Palmerston's difficulties would be great, they would not be insurmountable, and the very necessity of having a Government, and the impossibility of any other man forming one, would give him great facilities, and draw a great many people from various parties to enlist under him. It is, therefore, of immense importance that there should be a compromise now, for I am strongly of opinion that if there is not the Government will not be able to go on. What I fear is that, if a negotiation should be begun, the parties will not come to terms, and neither be disposed to make sufficient concessions. Lady Palmerston hinted at Aberdeen's going out, which she said he had always professed his readiness to do, but I gave her to understand that if he did, Lord John would insist on taking his place, which would not, I apprehend, be more palateable to Palmerston than the present arrangement.

_December 24th._--I went to town this morning to hear what was going on. I found Granville who told me there was a negotiation on foot, conducted by Newcastle, who had been to Palmerston yesterday and discussed the matter. Palmerston was to give his answer at twelve to-day; Granville did not think any concessions about Reform were to be made to him, and nothing more than an agreement that the whole question should be reconsidered. He was to write a letter, saying there had been 'a misunderstanding,' said he was evidently dying to remain, full of interest in foreign politics, and could not bear to be out the way of knowing and having a concern in all that is going on, and probably by no means insensible to the difficulties of another position, that of being the leader of an Opposition, and still more to the having to form and carry on a Government should that Opposition be successful. All this I think exceedingly probable. I then went to Clarendon, where I learnt that Palmerston had given his answer, and that he meant to stay. He had written a letter, not exactly such a one as they could have wished, but which must do; and though it was not yet formally settled, it had gone so far that it could not fail now. Both Clarendon and Granville told me John Russell had behaved admirably, which I was glad to hear. Granville thinks Palmerston has no _rancune_ against Aberdeen, but a good deal against John Russell. Granville said I had made a bad selection in writing to Graham on Thursday about Palmerston's staying in, as of all the Cabinet he was the man most against him, and most opposed to his return; but Clarendon said for that very reason he was very glad I had addressed myself to Graham, and that I had since written him a strong letter, as I did yesterday, setting forth as forcibly as I could the expediency of a reconciliation and the danger of Palmerston's separating himself from them, and the infallible consequences thereof.

BARAGUAY DECLINES TO ENTER THE BLACK SEA.

Walewski has been making a great flare up about the article in the 'Times,' stating that Dundas wanted to pursue the Russian fleet after Sinope, and that Baraguay d'Hilliers put his veto on the operation. Clarendon assured him the statement was inserted without his privity, and he had nothing to do with it. Walewski then asked him to authorise a formal contradiction in the 'Globe,' or to let it be officially contradicted in the 'Moniteur.' Clarendon declined the first, and advised against the latter course. I offered to speak to Delane about contradicting it in the 'Times,' which I afterwards did. He said the fact was true, and he had received it from various quarters, and it was useless to contradict it; but there was no reason the 'Moniteur' should not do so if they liked, so I sent him to Clarendon to talk it over and settle what was to be done to smooth the ruffled plumage of the French.

On Thursday at the Cabinet the resolution was taken which amounts to war. The French sent a proposal that the fleets should go into the Black Sea, repel any Russian aggression, and force any Russian ships of war they met with to go back to Sebastopol, using force in case of resistance. We assented to this proposal, and orders were sent accordingly. This must produce hostilities of some sort, and renders war inevitable. It is curious that this stringent measure should have been adopted during Palmerston's absence, and that he had no hand in it. It will no doubt render the reconciliation more agreeable to him. This incident of his resignation and return, which has made such a hubbub not only here but all over Europe for several days, is certainly extraordinary, and will hardly be intelligible, especially as it will hereafter appear that he has withdrawn his resignation with hardly any, or perhaps no, conditions. On looking dispassionately at it, it seems to me Palmerston and Aberdeen have both been somewhat to blame. Lord Lansdowne left town ten days or a fortnight ago, with a distinct understanding, as he affirms, that the question of the Reform Bill was not to be definitively settled till after Christmas, and though he was aware of Palmerston's objections, he had no idea he would take any decisive step till then. A few days after he was gone to Bowood, Palmerston wrote to Aberdeen, a most unnecessary and ill-judged act. Aberdeen--instead of referring in his answer to the above-named understanding, and giving no other answer, replies that he has consulted John Russell and Granville, who think that nothing can be proposed that will remove his objections, and that he agrees with them, on which Palmerston sends in his resignation in a letter described to be brief and peremptory in its tone. All these letters were wrong, and none of them ought to have been written. I see they (his colleagues or some of them) think Palmerston never had really any intention of quitting his post, but _more suo_ tried to bully a little, not without hopes that he might frighten them into some concessions on the Reform Bill, and meaning, if he failed, to knock under, as he has so often done upon other occasions. I am much inclined to suspect there is a great deal of truth in this hypothesis, being struck by Lady Palmerston's mildness and abstinence from violence and abuse, and the evident anxiety of both of them for a reconciliation, and again by the very easy terms on which he has been induced to stay. There has been no exaction or dictation on his part, but, so far as appears at present, something very like a surrender.