Chapter XIV: The "lusitania"--And After (2)

The Germans seem to think it a good time to try to feel about for
peace. They have more to offer now than they may have again. That's
all. A man who seriously talks peace now in Paris or in London on
any terms that the Germans will consider, would float dead that
very night in the Seine or in the Thames. The Germans have for the
time being "done-up" the Russians; but the French have shells
enough to plough the German trenches day and night (they've been at
it for a fortnight now); Joffre has been to see the Italian
generalissimo; and the English destroy German submarines now almost
as fast as the Germans send them out. I am credibly told that
several weeks ago a group of Admiralty men who are in the secret
had a little dinner to celebrate the destruction of the 50th
submarine.

While this is going on, you are talking on your side of the water
about a change in German policy! The only change is that the number
of submarines available becomes smaller and smaller, and that they
wish to use Uncle Sam's broad, fat back to crawl down on when they
have failed.

Consequently, they are laughing at Uncle Sam here--it comes near to
being ridicule, in fact, for seeming to jump at Bernstorff's
unfrank assurances. And, as I have telegraphed the President,
English opinion is--well, it is very nearly disrespectful. Men say
here (I mean our old friends) that with no disavowal of the
_Lusitania_, the _Falaba_, the _Gulflight_, or the _Arabic_ or of
the _Hesperian_, the Germans are "stuffing" Uncle Sam, that Uncle
Sam is in the clutches of the peace-at-any-price public opinion,
that the United States will suffer any insult and do nothing. I
hardly pick up a paper that does not have a sarcastic paragraph or
cartoon. We are on the brink of convincing the English that we'll
not act, whatever the provocation. By the English, I do not mean
the lighter, transitory public opinion, but I mean the thoughtful
men who do not wish us or expect us to fire a gun. They say that
the American democracy, since Cleveland's day, has become a mere
agglomeration of different races, without national unity, national
aims, and without courage or moral qualities. And (I deeply regret
to say) the President is losing here the high esteem he won by his
Panama tolls repeal. They ask, why on earth did he raise the issue
if under repeated provocation he is unable to recall Gerard or to
send Bernstorff home? The _Hesperian_ follows the _Arabic_; other
"liners" will follow the _Hesperian_, if the Germans have
submarines. And, when Sackville-West[6] was promptly sent home for
answering a private citizen's inquiry about the two political
parties, Dumba is (yet awhile) retained in spite of a far graver
piece of business. There is a tone of sad disappointment here--not
because the most thoughtful men want us in the war (they don't),
but because for some reason, which nobody here understands, the
President, having taken a stand, seems unable to do anything.

All this is a moderate interpretation of sorrowful public opinion
here. And the result will inevitably be that they will pay far less
heed to anything we may hereafter say. In fact men now say here
every day that the American democracy has no opinion, can form no
opinion, has no moral quality, and that the word of its President
never gets as far as action even of the mildest form. The
atmosphere is very depressing. And this feeling has apparently got
beyond anybody's control. I've even heard this said: "The voice of
the United States is Mr. Wilson's: its actions are controlled by
Mr. Bryan."

So, you see, the war will go on a long long time. So far as English
opinion is concerned, the United States is useful to make
ammunition and is now thought of chiefly in this connection. Less
and less attention is paid to what we say. Even the American
telegrams to the London papers have a languid tone.

Yet recent revelations have made it clearer than ever that the same
qualities that the English accuse us of having are in them and that
these qualities are directly to blame for this war. I recall that
when I was in Germany a few weeks, six years ago, I became
convinced that Germany had prepared to fight England; I didn't
know when, but I did know that was what the war-machine had in
mind. Of course, I had no opportunities to find out anything in
particular. You were told practically that same thing by the
Kaiser, before the war began. "We are ready," said he. Of course
the English feared it and Sir Edward put his whole life into his
effort to prevent it. The day the war began, he told me with tears
that it seemed that his life had been wasted--that his life work
had gone for naught.--Nobody could keep from wondering why England
didn't--

(Here comes a parenthesis. Word came to me a little while ago that
a Zeppelin was on its way to London. Such a remark doesn't arouse
much attention. But just as I had finished the fifth line above
this, Frank and Mrs. Page came in and challenged me to play a game
of cards before we should go to bed. We sat down, the cards were
dealt, and bang! bang!--with the deep note of an explosion. A
third, a fourth shot. We went into the street. There the Zeppelin
was revealed by a searchlight--sailing along. I think it had
probably dropped its bombs; but the aircraft guns were cracking
away at it. Some of them shot explosive projectiles to find the
range. Now and then one such explosive would almost reach the
Zeppelin, but it was too high for them and it sailed away, the air
guns doing their ineffectual best. I couldn't see whether airplanes
were trying to shoot it or not. The searchlight revealed the
Zeppelin but nothing else.--While we were watching this battle in
the air, the maids came down from the top of the house and went
into the cellar. I think they've already gone back. You can't
imagine how little excitement it caused. It produces less fright
than any other conceivable engine of war.

We came back as soon as the Zeppelin was out of sight and the
firing had ceased; we played our game of cards; and here I am
writing you the story-all within about half an hour.--There was a
raid over London last night, too, wherein a dozen or two women and
children and a few men were killed. I haven't the slightest idea
what harm this raid to-night has done. For all I know it may not be
all done. But of all imaginable war-experiences this seems the most
futile. It interrupted a game of cards for twenty minutes!)

Now--to go on with my story: I have wondered ever since the war
began why the Allies were not better prepared--especially England
on land. England has just one _big_ land gun--no more. Now it has
turned out, as you have doubtless read, that the British Government
were as good as told by the German Government that Germany was
going to war pretty soon--this in 1912 when Lord Haldane[7] was
sent to make friends with Germany.

The only answer he brought back was a proposition that England
should in any event remain neutral--stand aside while Germany
whipped Russia and France. This insulting proposal was kept secret
till the other day. Now, why didn't the British Cabinet inform the
people and get ready? They were afraid the English people wouldn't
believe it and would accuse them of fomenting war. The English
people were making money and pursuing their sports. Probably they
wouldn't have believed it. So the Liberal Cabinet went on in
silence, knowing that war was coming, but not exactly when it was
coming, and they didn't make even a second big gun.

Now here was the same silence in this "democracy" that they now
complain of in ours. Rather an interesting and discouraging
parallel--isn't it? Public opinion has turned Lord Haldane out of
office because he didn't tell the public what he declares they
wouldn't have believed. If the English had raised an army in 1912,
and made a lot of big guns, Austria would not have trampled Serbia
in the earth. There would have been no war now; and the strong
European Powers might have made then the same sort of protective
peace-insurance combine that they will try to make after this war
is ended. Query: A democracy's inability to _act_--how much is this
apparently inherent quality of a democracy to blame for this war
and for--other things?

When I am asked every day "Why the United States doesn't _do_
something--send Dumba and Bernstorff home?"--Well, it is not the
easiest question in the world to answer.

Yours heartily,
W.H.P.

P.S. This is the most comical of all worlds: While I was writing
this, it seems the maids went back upstairs and lighted their
lights without pulling their shades down--they occupy three rooms,
in front. The doorbell rang furiously. Here were more than half a
dozen policemen and special constables--must investigate! "One
light would be turned on, another would go out; another one
on!"--etc., etc. Frank tackled them, told 'em it was only the maids
going to bed, forgetting to pull down the shades. Spies and
signalling were in the air! So, in the morning, I'll have to send
over to the Foreign Office and explain. The Zeppelin did more
"frightfulness" than I had supposed, after all. Doesn't this strike
you as comical?

W.H.P.

Friday, September 10, 1915.

P.S. The news is just come that Dumba is dismissed. That will clear
the atmosphere--a little, but only a little. Dumba committed a
diplomatic offence. The German Government has caused the death of
United States citizens, has defied us, has declared it had changed
its policy and yet has gone on with the same old policy. Besides,
Bernstorff has done everything that Dumba did except employ
Archibald, which was a mere incident of the game. The President
took a strong stand: they have disregarded it--no apology nor
reparation for a single boat that has been sunk. Now the English
opinion of the Germans is hardly a calm, judicial opinion--of
course not. There may be facts that have not been made known. There
must be good reasons that nobody here can guess, why the President
doesn't act in the long succession of German acts against us. _But
I tell you with all solemnity that British opinion and the British
Government have absolutely lost their respect for us and their
former high estimate of the President. And that former respect is
gone for good unless he acts now very quickly_[8]. They will pay
nothing more than formal and polite attention to anything we may
hereafter say. This is not resentful. They don't particularly care
for us to get into the war. Their feeling (I mean among our best
old friends) is not resentful. It is simply sorrowful. They had the
highest respect for our people and our President. The Germans defy
us; we sit in silence. They conclude here that we'll submit to
anything from anybody. We'll write strong notes--nothing more.

I can't possibly exaggerate the revulsion of feeling. Members of
the Government say (in private, of course) that we'll submit to any
insult. The newspapers refuse to publish articles which attempt to
make the President's silence reasonable. "It isn't defensible,"
they say, "and they would only bring us thousands of insulting
letters from our readers." I can't think of a paper nor of a man
who has a good word to say for us--except, perhaps, a few Quaker
peace-at-any-price people. And our old friends are disappointed and
sorrowful. They feel that we have dropped out of a position of
influence in the world.

I needn't and can't write more. Of course there are more important
things than English respect. But the English think that every Power
has lost respect for us--the Germans most of all. And (unless the
President acts very rigorously and very quickly) we'll have to get
along a long time without British respect.

W.H.P.

P.S. The last Zeppelin raid--which interrupted the game of
cards--killed more than twenty persons and destroyed more than
seven million dollars' worth of private business property--all
non-combatants!

W.H.P.

_To Edward M. House_

21st of September, 1915.

DEAR HOUSE:

The insulting cartoon that I enclose (destroy it without showing
it) is typical of, I suppose, five hundred that have appeared here
within a month. This represents the feeling and opinion of the
average man. They say we wrote brave notes and made courageous
demands, to none of which a satisfactory reply has come, but only
more outrages and no guarantee for the future. Yet we will not even
show our displeasure by sending Bernstorff home. We've simply
"gone out," like a snuffed candle, in the regard and respect of the
vast volume of British opinion. (The last _Punch_ had six
ridiculing allusions to our "fall.")

It's the loneliest time I've had in England. There's a tendency to
avoid me.

They can't understand here the continued declaration in the United
States that the British Government is trying to take our trade--to
use its blockade and navy with the direct purpose of giving British
trade profit out of American detentions. Of course, the Government
had no such purpose and has done no such thing--with any such
purpose. It isn't thinking about trade but only about war.

The English think they see in this the effect on our Government and
on American opinion of the German propaganda. I have had this
trade-accusation investigated half a dozen times--the accusation
that this Government is using its military power for its own trade
advantage to our detriment: it simply isn't true. They stop our
cargoes, not for their advantage, but wholly to keep things from
the enemy. Study our own trade reports.

In a word, our importers are playing (so the English think)
directly into the hands of the Germans. So matters go on from bad
to worse.

Bryce[9] is very sad. He confessed to me yesterday the utter
hopelessness of the two people's ever understanding one another.

The military situation is very blue--very blue. The general feeling
is that the long war will begin next March and end--nobody dares
predict.

W.H.P.

P.S. There's not a moral shadow of a doubt (1) that the commander
of the submarine that sunk the _Arabic_ is dead--although he makes
reports to his government! nor (2) that the _Hesperian_ was
torpedoed. The State Department has a piece of the torpedo.

V

The letters which Page sent directly to the President were just as frank. "Incidents occur nearly every day," he wrote to President Wilson in the autumn of 1915, "which reveal the feeling that the Germans have taken us in. Last week one of our naval men, Lieutenant McBride, who has just been ordered home, asked the Admiralty if he might see the piece of metal found on the deck of the _Hesperian_. Contrary to their habit, the British officer refused. 'Take my word for it,' he said. 'She was torpedoed. Why do you wish to investigate? Your country will do nothing--will accept any excuse, any insult and--do nothing.' When McBride told me this, I went at once to the Foreign Office and made a formal request that this metal should be shown to our naval attaché, who (since Symington is with the British fleet and McBride has been ordered home) is Lieutenant Towers. Towers was sent for and everything that the Admiralty knows was shown to him and I am sending that piece of metal by this mail. But to such a pass has the usual courtesy of a British naval officer come. There are many such instances of changed conduct. They are not hard to endure nor to answer and are of no consequence in themselves but only for what they denote. They're a part of war's bitterness. But my mind runs ahead and I wonder how Englishmen will look at this subject five years hence, and it runs afield and I wonder how the Germans will regard it. A sort of pro-German American newspaper correspondent came along the other day from the German headquarters; and he told me that one of the German generals remarked to him: 'War with America? Ach no! Not war. If trouble should come, we'd send over a platoon of our policemen to whip your little army.' (He didn't say just how he'd send 'em.)"

_To the President_

American Embassy, London, Oct. 5, 1915.

DEAR MR. PRESIDENT:

I have two letters that I have lately written to you but which I
have not sent because they utterly lack good cheer. After reading
them over, I have not liked to send them. Yet I should fail of my
duty if I did not tell you bad news as well as good.

The high esteem in which our Government was held when the first
_Lusitania_ note to Germany was sent seems all changed to
indifference or pity--not hatred or hostility, but a sort of
hopeless and sad pity. That ship was sunk just five months ago; the
German Government (or its Ambassador) is yet holding conversations
about the principle involved, making "concessions" and promises for
the future, and so far we have done nothing to hold the Germans to
accountability[10]. In the meantime their submarine fleet has been
so reduced that probably the future will take care of itself and we
shall be used as a sort of excuse for their failure. This is what
the English think and say; and they explain our failure to act by
concluding that the peace-at-any-price sentiment dominates the
Government and paralyzes it. They have now, I think, given up hope
that we will ever take any action. So deeply rooted (and, I fear,
permanent) is this feeling that every occurrence is made to fit
into and to strengthen this supposition. When Dumba was dismissed,
they said: "Dumba, merely the abject tool of German intrigue. Why
not Bernstorff?" When the Anglo-French loan[11] was oversubscribed,
they said: "The people's sympathy is most welcome, but their
Government is paralyzed." Their respect has gone--at least for the
time being.

It is not that they expect us to go to war: many, in fact, do not
wish us to. They expected that we would be as good as our word and
hold the Germans to accountability. Now I fear they think little of
our word. I shudder to think what our relations might be if Sir
Edward Grey were to yield to another as Foreign Minister, as, of
course, he must yield at some time.

The press has less to say than it had a few weeks ago. _Punch_, for
instance, which ridiculed and pitied us in six cartoons and
articles in each of two succeeding numbers, entirely forgets us
this week. But they've all said their say. I am, in a sense,
isolated--lonely in a way that I have never before been. I am not
exactly avoided, I hope, but I surely am not sought. They have a
polite feeling that they do not wish to offend me and that to make
sure of this the safest course is to let me alone. There is no
mistaking the great change in the attitude of men I know, both in
official and private life.

It comes down and comes back to this--that for five months after
the sinking of the _Lusitania_ the Germans are yet playing with us,
that we have not sent Bernstorff home, and hence that we will
submit to any rebuff or any indignity. It is under these
conditions--under this judgment of us--that we now work--the
English respect for our Government indefinitely lessened and
instead of the old-time respect a sad pity. I cannot write more.

Heartily yours,
WALTER H. PAGE.

"I have authoritatively heard," Page writes to President Wilson in early September, "of a private conversation between a leading member of the Cabinet and a group of important officials all friendly to us in which all sorrowfully expressed the opinion that the United States will submit to any indignity and that no effect is now to be hoped for from its protests against unlawful submarine attacks or against anything else. The inactivity of our Government, or its delay, which they assume is the same as inactivity, is attributed to domestic politics or to the lack of national, consciousness or unity.

"No explanation has appeared in the British press of our Government's inactivity or of any regret or promise of reparation by Germany for the sinking of the _Lusitania_, the _Falaba_, the _Gulflight_, the _Nebraskan_, the _Arabic_, or the _Hesperian_, nor any explanation of a week's silence about the Dumba letter; and the conclusion is drawn that, in the absence of action by us, all these acts have been practically condoned.

"I venture to suggest that such explanations be made public as will remove, if possible, the practically unanimous conclusion here that our Government will permit these and similar future acts to be explained away. I am surprised almost every hour by some new evidence of the loss of respect for our Government, which, since the sinking of the _Arabic_, has become so great as to warrant calling it a complete revulsion of English feeling toward the United States. There is no general wish for us to enter the war, but there is genuine sorrow that we are thought to submit to any indignity, especially after having taken a firm stand. I conceive I should be lacking in duty if I did not report this rapid and unfortunate change in public feeling, which seems likely to become permanent unless facts are quickly made public which may change it."

* * * * *

There are many expressions of such feelings in Page's letters of this time. They brought only the most perfunctory acknowledgment from the White House. On January 3, 1916, Page sent the President a mass of clippings from the British press, all criticizing the Wilson Administration in unrestrained terms. In his comment on these, he writes the President:

"Public opinion, both official and unofficial, is expressed by these newspaper comments, with far greater restraint than it is expressed in private conversation. Ridicule of the Administration runs through the programmes of the theatres; it inspires hundreds of cartoons; it is a staple of conversation at private dinners and in the clubs. The most serious class of Englishmen, including the best friends of the United States, feel that the Administration's reliance on notes has reduced our Government to a third-or fourth-rate power. There is even talk of spheres of German influence in the United States as in China. No government could fall lower in English opinion than we shall fall if more notes are sent to Austria or to Germany. The only way to keep any shred of English respect is the immediate dismissal without more parleying of every German and Austrian official at Washington. Nobody here believes that such an act would provoke war.

"I can do no real service by mincing matters. My previous telegrams and letters have been purposely restrained as this one is. We have now come to the parting of the ways. If English respect be worth preserving at all, it can be preserved only by immediate action. Any other course than immediate severing of diplomatic relations with both Germany and Austria will deepen the English opinion into a conviction that the Administration was insincere when it sent the _Lusitania_ notes and that its notes and protests need not be taken seriously on any subject. And English opinion is allied opinion. The Italian Ambassador[12] said to me, 'What has happened? The United States of to-day is not the United States I knew fifteen years ago, when I lived in Washington.' French officers and members of the Government who come here express themselves even more strongly than do the British. The British newspapers to-day publish translations of ridicule of the United States from German papers."

_To the President_

London,
January 5, 1916.

DEAR MR. PRESIDENT:

I wish--an impossible thing of course--that some sort of guidance
could be given to the American correspondents of the English
newspapers. Almost every day they telegraph about the visits of the
Austrian Chargé or the German Ambassador to the State Department to
assure Mr. Lansing that their governments will of course make a
satisfactory explanation of the latest torpedo-act in the
Mediterranean or to "take one further step in reaching a
satisfactory understanding about the _Lusitania_." They usually go
on to say also that more notes are in preparation to Germany or to
Austria. The impression made upon the European mind is that the
German and Austrian officials in Washington are leading the
Administration on to endless discussion, endless notes, endless
hesitation. Nobody in Europe regards their pledges or promises as
worth anything at all: the _Arabic_ follows the _Lusitania_, the
_Hesperian_ follows the _Arabic_, the _Persia_ follows the
_Ancona_. "Still conferences and notes continue," these people say,
"proving that the American Government, which took so proper and
high a stand in the _Lusitania_ notes, is paralyzed--in a word is
hoodwinked and 'worked' by the Germans." And so long as these
diplomatic representatives are permitted to remain in the United
States, "to explain," "to parley" and to declare that the
destruction of American lives and property is disavowed by their
governments, atrocities on sea and land will of course continue;
and they feel that our Government, by keeping these German and
Austrian representatives in Washington, condones and encourages
them and their governments.

This is a temperate and even restrained statement of the English
feeling and (as far as I can make out) of the whole European
feeling.

It has been said here that every important journal published in
neutral or allied European countries, daily, weekly, or monthly,
which deals with public affairs, has expressed a loss of respect
for the United States Government and that most of them make
continuous severe criticisms (with surprise and regret) of our
failure by action to live up to the level of our _Lusitania_ notes.
I had (judiciously) two American journalists, resident here--men of
judgment and character--to inquire how true this declaration is.
After talking with neutral and allied journalists here and with men
whose business it is to read the journals of the Continent, they
reported that this declaration is substantially true--that the
whole European press (outside Germany and its allies) uses the same
tone toward our Government that the English press uses--to-day,
disappointment verging on contempt; and many of them explain our
keeping diplomatic intercourse with Germany by saying that we are
afraid of the German vote, or of civil war, or that the
peace-at-any-price people really rule the United States and have
paralyzed our power to act--even to cut off diplomatic relations
with governments that have insulted and defied us.

Another (similar) declaration is that practically all men of public
influence in England and in the European allied and neutral
countries have publicly or privately expressed themselves to the
same effect. The report that I have about this is less definite
than about the newspapers, for, of course, no one can say just what
proportion of men of public influence have so expressed themselves;
but the number who have so expressed themselves is overwhelming.

In this Kingdom, where I can myself form some opinion more or less
accurate, and where I can check or verify my opinion by various
methods--I am afraid, as I have frequently already reported, that
the generation now living will never wholly regain the respect for
our Government that it had a year ago. I will give you three little
indications of this feeling; it would be easy to write down
hundreds of them:

(One) The governing class: Mr. X [a cabinet member] told Mrs. Page
a few nights ago that for sentimental reasons only he would be
gratified to see the United States in the war along with the
Allies, but that merely sentimental reasons were not a sufficient
reason for war--by no means; that he felt most grateful for the
sympathetic attitude of the large mass of the American people, that
he had no right to expect anything from our Government, whose
neutral position was entirely proper. Then he added; "But what I
can't for the life of me understand is your Government's failure
to express its disapproval of the German utter disregard of its
_Lusitania_ notes. After eight months, it has done nothing but
write more notes. My love for America, I must confess, is offended
at this inaction and--puzzled. I can't understand it. You will
pardon me, I am sure."

(Two) "Middle Class" opinion: A common nickname for Americans in
the financial and newspaper districts of London is "Too-prouds."

(Three) The man in the street: At one of the moving picture shows
in a large theatre a little while ago they filled in an interval by
throwing on the screen the picture of the monarch, or head of
state, and of the flag of each of the principal nations. When the
American picture appeared, there was such hissing and groaning as
caused the managers hastily to move that picture off the screen.

Some time ago I wrote House of some such incidents and expressions
as these; and he wrote me that they were only part and parcel of
the continuous British criticism of their own Government--in other
words, a part of the passing hysteria of war. This remark shows how
House was living in an atmosphere of illusion.

As the matter stands to-day our Government has sunk lower, as
regards British and European opinion, than it has ever been in our
time, not as a part of the hysteria of war but as a result of this
process of reasoning, whether it be right or wrong:

We said that we should hold the Germans to strict accountability on
account of the _Lusitania_. We have not settled that yet and we
still allow the German Ambassador to discuss it after the
_Hesperian_ and other such acts showed that his _Arabic_ pledge was
worthless.

The _Lusitania_ grows larger and larger in European memory and
imagination. It looks as if it would become the great type of war
atrocities and barbarities. I have seen pictures of the drowned
women and children used even on Christmas cards. And there is
documentary proof in our hands that the warning, which was really
an advance announcement, of that disaster was paid for by the
German Ambassador and charged to his Government. It is the
_Lusitania_ that has caused European opinion to regard our foreign
policy as weak. It is not the wish for us to go to war. No such
general wish exists.

I do not know, Mr. President, who else, if anybody, puts these
facts before you with this complete frankness. But I can do no less
and do my duty.

No Englishman--except two who were quite intimate friends--has
spoken to me about our Government for months, but I detect all the
time a tone of pity and grief in their studied courtesy and in
their avoidance of the subject. And they talk with every other
American in this Kingdom. It is often made unpleasant for Americans
in the clubs and in the pursuit of their regular business and
occupations; and it is always our inaction about the _Lusitania_.
Our controversy with the British Government causes little feeling
and that is a sort of echo of the _Lusitania_. They feel that we
have not lived up to our promises and professions.

That is the whole story.

Believe me always heartily,
WALTER H. PAGE.

* * * * *

This dismissal of Dumba and of the Attachés has had little more effect on opinion here than the dismissal of the Turkish Ambassador[13]. Sending these was regarded as merely kicking the dogs of the man who had stolen our sheep.

VI

One of the reasons why Page felt so intensely about American policy at this time was his conviction that the severance of diplomatic relations, in the latter part of 1915, or the early part of 1916, in itself would have brought the European War to an end. This was a conviction from which he never departed. Count Bernstorff was industriously creating the impression in the United States that his dismissal would immediately cause war between Germany and the United States, and there is little doubt that the Administration accepted this point of view. But Page believed that this was nothing but Prussian bluff. The severance of diplomatic relations at that time, in Page's opinion, would have convinced the Germans of the hopelessness of their cause. In spite of the British blockade, Germany was drawing enormous quantities of food supplies from the United States, and without these supplies she could not maintain indefinitely her resistance. The severance of diplomatic relations would naturally have been accompanied by an embargo suspending trade between the United States and the Fatherland. Moreover, the consideration that was mainly leading Germany to hope for success was the belief that she could embroil the United States and Great Britain over the blockade. A break with Germany would of course mean an end to that manoeuvre. Page regarded all Mr. Wilson's attempts to make peace in 1914 and early 1915--before the _Lusitania_--as mistakes, for reasons that have already been set forth. Now, however, he believed that the President had a real opportunity to end the war and the unparalleled suffering which it was causing. The mere dismissal of Bernstorff, in the Ambassador's opinion, would accomplish this result.

In a communication sent to the President on February 15, 1916, he made this plain.

_To the President_

February 15, 7 P.M.

The Cabinet has directed the Censor to suppress, as far as he can
with prudence, comment which is unfavourable to the United States.
He has taken this action because the public feeling against the
Administration is constantly increasing. Because the _Lusitania_
controversy has been going on so long, and because the Germans are
using it in their renewed U-boat campaign, the opinion of this
country has reached a point where only prompt action can bring a
turn in the tide. Therefore my loyalty to you would not be complete
if I should refrain from sending, in the most respectful terms, the
solemn conviction which I hold about our opportunity and our duty.

If you immediately refuse to have further parley or to yield one
jot or tittle of your original _Lusitania_ notes, and if you at
once break diplomatic relations with the German Empire, and then
declare the most vigorous embargo of the Central Powers, you will
quickly end the war. There will be an immediate collapse in German
credit. If there are any Allies who are wavering, such action will
hold them in line. Certain European neutrals--Sweden, Rumania,
Greece, and others--will put up a firm resistance to Germanic
influences and certain of them will take part with Great Britain
and France. There will be an end at once to the German propaganda,
which is now world-wide. The moral weight of our country will be a
determining influence and bring an early peace. The credit you
will receive for such a decision will make you immortal and even
the people of Germany will be forever grateful.

It is my conviction that we would not be called upon to fire a gun
or to lose one human life.

Above all, such an action will settle the whole question of
permanent peace. The absolute and grateful loyalty of the whole
British Empire, of the British Fleet, and of all the Allied
countries will be ours. The great English-speaking nations will be
able to control the details of the peace and this without any
formal alliance. There will be an incalculable saving of human life
and of treasure. Such an act will make it possible for Germany to
give in honourably and with good grace because the whole world will
be against her. Her bankrupt and blockaded people will bring such
pressure to bear that the decision will be hastened.

The sympathies of the American people will be brought in line with
the Administration.

If we settle the _Lusitania_ question by compromising in any way
your original demands, or if we permit it to drag on longer,
America can have no part in bringing the war to an end. The current
of allied opinion will run so strongly against the Administration
that no censorship and no friendly interference by an allied
government can stem the distrust of our Government which is now so
strong in Europe.

We shall gain by any further delay only a dangerous, thankless, and
opulent isolation. The _Lusitania_ is the turning point in our
history. The time to act is now.

PAGE.

FOOTNOTES:

[Footnote 1: The Ambassador's granddaughter.]

[Footnote 2: "A Cycle of Adams Letters, 1861-1865," edited by Worthington Chauncey Ford. Vol. I, p. 84.]

[Footnote 3: "The Life and Letters of John Hay," by William Roscoe Thayer. Vol. II, p. 166.]

[Footnote 4: On September 6th, certain documents seriously compromising Dr. Constantin Dumba, Austro-Hungarian Ambassador to the United States, were published in the British press. They disclosed that Dr. Dumba was fomenting strikes in the United States and conducting other intrigues. The American Government gave Dr. Dumba his passports on September 17th.]

[Footnote 5: August 26th, Count Bernstorff gave a pledge to the United States Government, that, in future, German submarines would not attack liners without warning. This promise was almost immediately violated.]

[Footnote 6: Sir Lionel Sackville-West was British Minister to the United States from 1881 to 1888. In the latter year a letter was published which he had written to an American citizen of British origin, the gist of which was that the reëlection of President Cleveland would be of advantage to British interests. For this gross interference in American domestic affairs, President Cleveland immediately handed Sir Lionel his passports. The incident ended his diplomatic career.]

[Footnote 7: In this passage the Ambassador touches on one of the bitterest controversies of the war. In order completely to understand the issues involved and to obtain Lord Haldane's view, the reader should consult the very valuable book recently published by Lord Haldane: "Before the War." Chapter II tells the story of Lord Haldane's visit to the Kaiser, and succeeding chapters give the reasons why the creation of a huge British army in preparation for the war was not a simple matter.]

[Footnote 8: The italics are Page's.]

[Footnote 9: Viscount Bryce, author of "The American Commonwealth" and British Ambassador to the United States, 1907-1913.]

[Footnote 10: In a communication sent February 10, 1915, President Wilson warned the German Government that he would hold it to a "strict accountability" for the loss of American lives by illegal submarine attack.]

[Footnote 11: A reference to the Anglo-French loan for $500,000,000, placed in the United States in the autumn of 1915.]

[Footnote 12: The Marquis Imperiali.]

[Footnote 13: Rustem Bey, the Turkish Ambassador to the United States, was sent home early in the war, for publishing indiscreet newspaper and magazine articles.]