Chapter XVII (2)

The other great topic of interest, viz. the Reform Bill and John Russell's Resolutions, does not look in a more satisfactory state. While many sensible people deprecate this move of John Russell's, and lament that Palmerston should have consented to support it, the probability seems that it will be carried, but the greatest uncertainty prevails as to the course which the Government will adopt, and whether they will try to go on, dropping their Bill altogether, or continue the fight with its remaining clauses, or whether they will take the chance of a dissolution. It is now clear enough that Derby made a great blunder in undertaking to deal with the question of Reform at all, and that a consistent Conservative course would have been the most honourable and the wisest, and have afforded him the best chance of staying in office. By bringing forward a measure to the principle of which it is well known that he and his whole Government and party are in their hearts adverse, and then trying to vitiate the principle by certain contrivances in the details, by which the scruples of his own party may be obviated, he exposes himself to the charge of producing a dishonest measure, and this is what the Whigs urge as their ground for attacking it in front and at once. This is what Lewis said to me, 'We are bound to defeat a measure which is so dishonest that it is not susceptible of such improvement in Committee as would warrant our passing it.' The conduct of the Whigs, however, is not a whit more honest. Their allegation is a mere pretext, and their real motive is that they think they see their way back to office through an attack upon the Government Bill; they are indifferent to the consequences, and all they want is to get the coast clear for themselves, and take the chance of settling the difficult questions which will arise as to the formation of a Government and the conditions on which it can be formed. All this appears to me quite as dishonest as anything the Government have done or are doing. Palmerston never was a Reformer. He was opposed as much as he dared and could be even to the great measure of 1832, which all the world was for. When he brought forward a measure of his own two or three years ago, he did it without sincerity or conviction, and merely for a party object, and now he is uniting with John Russell without any real agreement with him in opinion, and with full knowledge that if they succeed and climb into office on the ruins of the Government Bill he will be obliged to propose a measure much stronger than he believes to be either necessary or safe. Believing that Palmerston and John Russell were agreed no further than upon the Resolutions on Monday next, I thought that a difference must arise between them (in the event of their coming into office) on the Reform Bill they should produce, but I was told just now that upon this point they are already nearly if not completely agreed. They are, however, not yet agreed upon the great question of the Premiership, or which of them shall go to the House of Lords. The impatience and confidence of Lord John seems to be unbounded, and in spite of his being the younger by seven years, his eagerness to be in office again much more intense than that of Palmerston. Although this is such a miserable Government, both discreditable and incompetent, and it is a misfortune to have the country ruled by such men, I cannot desire the success of such selfish and unpatriotic manoeuvres as those by which the Whigs are endeavouring to supplant them, and consequently I regard the whole state of affairs with indescribable disgust and no small apprehension. I believe the country to be in nearly equal danger from Louis Napoleon abroad and Mr. Bright at home, and I fear that there is no capacity in the Government to cope with the one, and no such amount of wisdom and patriotism amongst the chief men of all parties as is requisite to defeat the designs of the other.

_March 16th._--Cowley called on me yesterday at the Council Office. He said that he had never believed there would be war, and he did not expect it now; that all the agitation and turmoil that had been vexing Europe for the last three months were to be attributed to the conduct of Cavour and his attempts to drag France into assisting Piedmont in her aggressive policy, and to misunderstandings which had been produced by the strange conduct of the French Government, the imprudent speech of the Emperor to Hübner on January 1st, and the ambiguous manifestations which had followed it. To comprehend all these things it was necessary to be acquainted with the whole course of Cavour's policy and his dealings with France, and to understand the peculiar character of the Emperor and the motives and impulses by which he is actuated. When Austria refused to join England and France in the Russian War, Cavour thought that an opportunity presented itself of which he might take advantage, and which would lead to a realisation of his views for the aggrandisement of Piedmont, and he offered to join the alliance and send an army to the Crimea. This offer (as Cowley thinks very imprudently and unfortunately) was accepted. He thinks it was unwise, because the assistance of Piedmont was not required, and could not have any material effect on the result of the contest, while it was sure to excite hopes and expectations, and to give rise to demands which would be afterwards found very inconvenient and embarrassing. Accordingly Cavour took the earliest opportunity of expressing his hopes that when peace should return Sardinia and her services would not be overlooked. General expressions of goodwill were given, but Cowley cannot answer for what more the Emperor may have said.

[Sidenote: LORD COWLEY'S VIENNA NEGOTIATION.]

His account of his mission does not quite correspond with what I had before heard of it, and is an additional proof of the difficulty of arriving at truth. He told me that he had written to Malmesbury and told him he thought it very expedient to send somebody to Vienna to talk to Buol and the Emperor, and to try and mediate between Austria and France, to which Malmesbury had replied he had better go himself, as nobody else would be so likely to effect the object. The consent of Buol having been previously obtained, he proposed it at Paris, where his services were gladly accepted. He had already spoken very openly to the Emperor, and told him very plain truths as to his position and his conduct, and when he went he told His Majesty without disguise what his intentions were and his wishes, and what he desired that Austria should do. The Emperor was very frank, totally disdained any wish to make war, but said he should like Austria to do certain things, which amounted to full security for Piedmont and renunciation of any unfair and unjustifiable predominance in Italy. He found them at Vienna more angry than alarmed; suspicious, but not unreasonable; their military condition so good and powerful that, believing France really bent on attacking them, there was a very general feeling that it was better war should come at once than have it indefinitely hanging over them, and at first it seemed unlikely that they would return any conciliatory assurances which he might carry back to France. At last, however, he got them to say what he thought was as much as could be expected from them, and what ought to satisfy the French Government. Since he left Paris (now three weeks ago or more) he has not had a line from thence, and he is wholly ignorant of the march of affairs during his absence; but he hopes and expects to find a pacific disposition, and his object is to prevail on the Emperor to put an end to the general state of uncertainty and alarm by announcing to Sardinia that she is in no danger from Austria, and that therefore no assistance from France will be necessary, and she may safely desist from her warlike preparations. This is in fact the only way by which the crisis can be put an end to, and if the Emperor really has been sincere in his professions and means to make his acts correspond with them, he will forthwith put forward some clear and unambiguous declaration, and some definite communication to Piedmont which will leave no room for doubt or suspicion, and restore confidence and tranquillity to Europe again.

_March 22nd._--Yesterday the 'Times' announced that a Congress had been agreed upon, which was believed, so the funds rose and there was a general belief that a solution was at hand, but it turns out not to be true. The Emperor wishes for one as a means by which he may back out of his scrape, which Cowley writes is now his object, but it is impossible to believe that Austria will listen to it, and Clarendon thinks that she would do wrong to consent to it, and that we should get into a scrape by being a party to it, as no reliance whatever can be placed on the good faith or honesty of France, who would deceive us and Austria, as she has often done before.

Yesterday the Neapolitan exiles arrived at an hotel in Dover Street in several hack cabs, decorated with laurels, and preceded by a band of music. I did not see the men, but saw the empty cabs; there was no crowd.

Nothing could be more uninteresting than the first evening of the debate on John Russell's Resolutions last night. Lord March told me in the morning that the Government would certainly dissolve as soon as the Resolutions were carried. Every day makes the folly of Derby more apparent in bringing in any Reform Bill at all.

[Sidenote: DEBATE ON REFORM BILL]

_March 24th._--When I think of the Reform Bill of 1832, and compare the state of affairs at that time with that of the present time, nothing can be more extraordinary. Then the interest was intense, the whole country in a fever of excitement, the Press rabid, the clamour for Reform all but universal, party running tremendously high, no doubt or hesitation about individual wishes and opinions, and each camp perfectly united in itself, and full of energy and zeal. In this condition of the public mind and of politics the debates began and continued. This debate has begun and seems likely to continue, how differently! There are neither zeal nor union on one side or the other, everybody is dissatisfied with the state of affairs, and nobody can see a satisfactory issue from the general embarrassment. There have been two nights of debate, and as yet all the speaking has been one way, all on the anti-Reform side. John Russell was flat, and Stanley, who replied to him, actually read his speech, which, though it was much complimented by his own friends, seems to have been far from effective. Horsman made a very good speech the first night, and Bulwer Lytton spoke with great eloquence and effect on Tuesday, far better than anybody thought he could speak, and the Solicitor-General made a magnificent speech, in which he attacked John Russell with great vigour and complete success. The only tolerable speech on the Opposition side was Sidney Herbert's. Nobody has the least idea what course the Government will take of the three open to them, whether they will resign, dissolve, or go on with the second reading. The inference from Stanley's speech was that they will dissolve, but Lytton and Cairns seemed anxious to do away with the impression that speech had made, and one is led to infer from what they said that the Government will most likely proceed to the second reading, which would probably be their wisest and certainly their most popular course. The majority of those who are going to vote for the Resolutions do so unwillingly, and would have preferred going into Committee, or to have fought the battle on the second reading. As it is, if Government do not throw up their cards, the second reading is in my opinion sure to pass, and not improbably the Bill itself with great alterations.

The state of foreign affairs is as uncertain as ever. So incurable is the distrust of the Emperor Napoleon that the greatest doubts prevail whether he means peace or war, and whether even this Congress which he is trying to bring about is not a mere dodge for the purpose of gaining time, and in order to extract out of it a plausible case for a complete breach with Austria.

Gladstone is come back from Italy completely duped by Cavour, who has persuaded him that Piedmont has no ambition or aggressive objects, and that Austria alone is guilty of all the trouble in which the world has been plunged. He told this to Aberdeen, who treated his delusions and his credulity with the utmost scorn and contempt, but he is said to have found John Russell more credulous, and ready to accept Gladstone's convictions.

_March 26th._--The debate goes on, to the intense disgust of everybody, though enlivened by a few clever and telling speeches. But everybody is disgusted with the whole affair, from which all see that no good can come, and probably much mischief will ensue. The Government side continues to have the best of the debate, Horsman, who spoke for them, and Lytton and Cairns having been very superior to all the speakers on the other side. On Friday Palmerston spoke, with great vigour, but not much effect. His speech was very jaunty, but very insincere. When he said that he cordially supported the Resolutions of his noble friend, everybody knew that it was not true, that he really disapproved of them and that he only consented to go with Lord John in order to evince his willingness to make up their political difference, and to lend himself to the reunion of all the Whig party; but in his speech he said enough to show that there is not likely to be an entire or lasting agreement between them, and that the two Kings of Brentford will not long continue to smell at the same nosegay. The Opposition have been all along quite confident of victory on the Resolutions, and it has been impossible to make sure of the intentions of the Government in the event of their being beaten, as they have severally held such very different language on the point.

But an incident has occurred which is very likely to extricate the Government from their difficulty, and of which I presume they will avail themselves. Owen Stanley (brother of Stanley of Alderley) the other night blurted out, without previous concert with anybody, a notice of a motion of want of confidence in the event of the second reading not passing. The Opposition are unanimously disgusted at this piece of folly and meddling, while the Government are of course delighted at such a plank of safety being held out to them, and if they use it dexterously, they may completely defeat Lord John and Palmerston, and prolong their own tenure of office for some time at least.

[Sidenote: DEFEAT OF THE MINISTRY]

_April 1st._--The great debate came to an end last night. The majority was greater than either side expected, and the Government and their friends were sanguine to the last that they should win by a few votes.[1] Although there was a great deal of tedious speaking, it was on the whole a very able and creditable debate, and there were several very powerful speeches, but principally on the side of the minority. Gladstone's was particularly good, and Dizzy's reply, with a very effective philippic against John Russell, was exceedingly clever, and delivered with much dignity and in very good taste. Although the question of Reform was regarded with so much indifference, as the debate proceeded and party spirit and emulation waxed hot, the interest and curiosity became intense. They have become still more intense to-day, and the town is in a state of feverish anxiety to know what is going to happen, and, as usual on such occasions, there are a thousand reports, speculations, and guesses afloat. This morning the prevalent idea was that they would resign, but this evening, and since Derby's brief notice in the House of Lords, it is rather that they will dissolve. Certainly the Queen might very well refuse her consent to a dissolution if proposed to her, and this would of course compel the Government to resign; but nobody knows whether she wishes Derby to stay in, or would prefer to take the chance of forming another Ministry. I have no idea that happen what may she will send for Lord John Russell; but no doubt she knows all that has recently passed between him and Palmerston, and about the formation of another Government, and it is not impossible that she may shrink from being plunged into the difficulties which would attend the attempts to form a Government in which they were to divide the power and authority between them.

Footnote 1: [The numbers were: for the second reading of the Bill 291, for Lord John Russell's Resolutions 330; majority against the Government 39.]

_April 4th._--The report yesterday was that Derby does not mean to resign or dissolve, or to go on with the present Bill, but perhaps bring in a fresh one. As we shall hear it all this evening, it is useless to speculate on the subject. The Opposition are evidently puzzled what to do. I went to Kent House, where Lewis said the Government were much mistaken if they imagined they should be left alone; he did not know what would be done, but certainly they must look to be attacked in some shape or other. Granville in the evening took the opposite line, and said the best party game would be to let them alone. Nothing, however, will ever induce John Russell to keep quiet.

[Sidenote: M. DE CAVOUR'S POLICY]

Clarendon came in, and we talked of foreign affairs. He thinks war inevitable, and that the French are only gaining time to complete their preparations. I said I thought Cowley had been duped by the Emperor, but he thought not. Cowley had all along seen all the objections to the proposed Congress and suspected the _arrière pensée_ of it, but said it was impossible when proposed to object to it, as the Emperor would put forward such a refusal as a pretext, and say that it would have prevented war. Two years ago he had a reliance upon the Emperor which he had no longer; that he was completely changed now from what he was, and it was difficult to know what he really meant, and when he was sincere or the reverse. Clarendon told us he had lately seen Marliani, an old acquaintance of his, a Spanish Liberal and friend of Cavour's. Marliani said that the Italian question was ill understood in England, and he had come over for the express purpose of seeing Clarendon and talking it over with him, and putting before him a paper he had written upon it. The conversation was curious. Clarendon told him he was quite mistaken if he thought the Government or any other Government could take any part at variance with the existing treaties, or that the country would allow them to do so, even if inclined. He then asked him what his friend Cavour meant to do in the dilemma in which he had got himself and his country, and expressed very strong opinions on his conduct. Marliani replied that it was not quite just to censure Cavour with such severity, and without considering his position, that during his whole life his most ardent desire and fixed idea was that of purging Italy of the Austrians and aggrandising his own country, and now when he saw before him the probable realisation of his fond hopes, that he was backed up and encouraged by the master of 300,000 men in the game he was playing, and taught to rely upon that aid, could it be wondered at that he should yield to the seduction? Clarendon asked what would happen if the Emperor proved faithless to him, as he had done to others, and in what position Cavour would find himself. Marliani replied that he had no hesitation in telling him what he thought need not be a secret, at least to him, as he was sure Cavour would tell Clarendon himself if he saw him, and that Cavour had fully made up his mind what to do. If the Emperor ended by throwing over the Italian cause and refused to go to war, Cavour would resign, the King would abdicate, and the whole correspondence with all the Emperor's letters (of which they had an immense number) would be published and circulated over all Europe to show the baseness and perfidy of the man in whom they had trusted, and to force him to hide his head from the indignation and contempt of the world. Everything indicates that, whether from fear of this vindictive explosion or because he thinks it his policy, he is hastening his preparations, has renewed his engagements to Cavour, and that he means to go to war as soon as he can.