Chapter II: The Statisticians (3)

=========+===========+===========+==========
Years. | Wheat. | Rye. | Potatoes.
---------+-----------+-----------+----------
1848 | 7.49 | 4.82 | 1.84
1849 | 7.29 | 3.87 | 1.45
1850 | 6.91 | 4.55 | 1.55
1851 | 7.47 | 6.26 | 2.08
1852 | 8.59 | 7.72 | 2.48
1853 | 10.25 | 8.50 | 2.47
1854 | 12.90 | 10.40 | 3.17
1855 | 14.21 | 11.45 | 3.37
1856 | 13.51 | 10.64 | 3.13
1857 | 10.18 | 6.87 | 2.18
1858 | 9.08 | 6.38 | 1.91
1859 | 8.93 | 6.79 | 1.98
1860 | 10.48 | 7.65 | 2.41
1861 | 11.04 | 7.71 | 2.79
1862 | 10.68 | 7.79 | 2.47
1863 | 9.18 | 6.78 | 2.04
1864 | 7.95 | 5.69 | 2.10
1865 | 8.13 | 6.24 | 2.03
1866 | 9.80 | 7.30 | 2.05
1867 | 12.89 | 9.87 | 2.95
1868 | 12.48 | 9.84 | 2.62
1869 | 9.70 | 8.08 | 2.16
1870 | 10.14 | 7.78 | 2.58
1871 | 11.70 | 8.60 | 3.05
1872 | 12.10 | 8.40 | 2.95
1873 | 13.20 | 9.60 | 3.00
1874 | 12.00 | 9.90 | 3.35
1875 | 9.80 | 8.60 | 2.75
1876 | 10.50 | 8.70 | 2.82
1877 | 11.50 | 8.85 | 3.18
1878 | 10.10 | 7.15 | 2.82
1879 | 9.80 | 7.20 | 3.08
1880 | 10.95 | 9.65 | 3.25
1881 | 11.00 | 10.10 | 2.85
=========+===========+===========+==========

A comparison of these figures with those of crime will show that the crimes against property increase in the years of high prices up to 1855. In 1857 prices fell and crime decreased.

In the figures for foreign countries we see this relation much less clearly. Dr. Weisz has indeed succeeded in establishing a similar relation in France, but in Belgium it is much slighter. In England it is not possible to show that there is any parallelism between the curves of criminality and of the price of grain. In the years 1831–1840 and 1841–1850 the curve of crime even goes down, while provisions were then very dear. There must therefore be some other cause, and this is probably that England had a great industrial development long before any other country.

After an extremely rapid development up to 1847, manufacturing had to pass through a formidable crisis. While the average annual number of persons convicted in England and Wales was 20,455, and this figure fell to 18,100 and 17,400 in the prosperous years, 1845–1846, it rose during the years of crisis, 1847–1848, to 21,500 and 22,900, falling again to 21,000 in 1849, when business had resumed its normal course.

In the years following, industry received an enormous impetus, in consequence of the discovery of gold in California, the repeal of the Corn Laws, and many other causes. In 1857 came the panic, which affected all industrial countries, especially England. In 1856–1860 there was an annual average of 13,565 convictions; in 1857 it was 15,307, an increase of 12%. That the consequences of this crisis are not to be observed in the figures for crime in Prussia, is to be attributed to the fact that in that country manufacturing was little developed.

After the very dear years 1852–1856 the price of grain remained fairly constant in Prussia. It was only in 1860–1862 that it rose a little and caused an increase in the cases of fraud and theft. 1867–1868 were years which were marked by an extraordinarily high price for grain, which had some influence upon crime, without equalling that of such years as 1852–1856.

Crime decreased in the years of war, 1866 and 1870–1871, due as Dr. Müller thinks, to two facts; first, that a great part of the population capable of committing crimes were then out of the country; and second, that the feeling of solidarity is stronger in time of war.

Notwithstanding the rise in the price of grain in 1871–1874, crime decreased greatly after the war of 1870. A modification of the penal law could not be the cause of it; its origin was deeper. Since 1871 Germany has seen its industries develop prodigiously. The period of prosperity was of short duration, for in the summer of 1873 came the crisis, which lasted till 1878. Now it is during these years that the crimes against property were much increased.

When we study this period in other countries, in Austria and England, for example, we see a great industrial development, accompanied by a decrease in crime. The average number of criminals in Austria for the years 1860–1870 was 32,800, and 26,900 for the years 1871–1875. In England the figures for the same period were 14,100 and 11,200 respectively. France alone was an exception, for in this country manufacturing did not begin to develop immediately after the war. [78] But in Austria and England the effects of the crisis upon crime were felt just as in Prussia. In Austria, for example, criminality increased 10%. From 1878 on, business improved in Prussia and in other countries also, and little by little the number of crimes against property decreased (between 1885 and 1890 7% in France, 9% in Austria, and 20% in England).

In 1889 there was another great disturbance in the economic field, which was prolonged till 1892. During these years there was a new increase of crime; in Austria, for example, the average number of convictions was 29,483 in 1890–1894, as against 28,834 for the five years preceding. In England we see the same phenomenon, and in Prussia as well.

Dr. Müller calls attention to the marked fall in the price of grain in 1892, and sees in it a proof that prices have no longer any great influence. Since 1892 there has been a new period of prosperity, and at the same time a constant diminution of crimes against property.

Dr. Müller reminds us that preceding moralistic statisticians have brought out the fact that crimes against persons increase when the price of grain falls, and vice versa, as is distinctly seen in the tables for the years 1854–1860. But there is a change during the ten years following. In 1867–1868 the price of grain was high, but crimes against persons and the public order rose also. Crimes against persons decreased in the years of war, 1866 and 1870, just as crimes against property did. Since 1871 crimes against persons have in general diminished, principally because of favorable economic conditions. (The diminution of crimes against morals is chiefly due to a modification of the law, which prescribed that a case could not be prosecuted except upon complaint. The increase after 1876 was caused by a revocation of this requirement.) The crimes in question increased anew considerably after the crisis of 1874. Here is an important exception, then, to the rule that the earlier statisticians laid down, namely that crimes against persons decrease when economic conditions grow worse.

II. Crimes against Persons.

a. 1854–1878. New Cases to 100,000 Inhabitants.

=======+==========+=========+===========+==========+===========+========== | Offenses | | Murder | Assault | Bodily | Offenses Years. | against | Insult. | and | in | Injuries | against | Morals. | | Homicide. | General. | Punished | Personal | | | | | as Crime. | Liberty. -------+----------+---------+-----------+----------+-----------+---------- 1854 | 8.7 | 32 | 1.1 | 34 | 6.7 | 0.9 1855 | 10.2 | 32 | 0.9 | 32 | 4.5 | 0.7 1856 | 10.8 | 34 | 0.9 | 37 | 3.0 | 0.8 1857 | 12.6 | 36 | 0.9 | 42 | 1.8 | 1.0 1858 | 12.5 | 40 | 0.8 | 46 | 1.8 | 1.1 1859 | 13.1 | 39 | 0.8 | 47 | 1.8 | 1.0 1860 | 12.4 | 40 | 0.9 | 46 | 1.5 | 0.8 1861 | 11.6 | 33 | 0.7 | 44 | 1.7 | 1.0 1862 | 12.9 | 39 | 0.8 | 49 | 1.4 | 1.4 1863 | 14.2 | 40 | 0.7 | 53 | 1.6 | 1.2 1864 | 14.0 | 43 | 0.9 | 54 | 1.6 | 1.4 1865 | 14.9 | 44 | 0.8 | 58 | 1.7 | 1.3 1866 | 13.4 | 40 | 0.8 | 50 | 1.5 | 1.3 1867 | 14.0 | 44 | 0.9 | 50 | 1.6 | 1.0 1868 | 14.8 | 47 | 0.9 | 52 | 2.8 | 1.0 1869 | 14.9 | 45 | 1.0 | 58 | 2.8 | 1.3 1870 | 12.3 | 39 | 0.8 | 49 | 1.9 | 1.1 1871 | 5.3 | 26 | 0.7 | 39 | 1.2 | 1.2 1872 | 6.2 | 34 | 0.8 | 50 | 2.0 | 1.8 1873 | 6.7 | 38 | 0.9 | 56 | 2.4 | 2.8 1874 | 7.8 | 47 | 1.1 | 64 | 3.0 | 3.3 1875 | 8.2 | 50 | 1.2 | 65 | 2.9 | 3.6 1876 | 9.3 | 51 | 1.2 | 73 | 5.5 | 4.1 1877 | 11.1 | 54 | 1.3 | 86 | 5.0 | 4.7 1878 | 12.3 | 54 | 1.4 | 89 | 2.5 | 5.5 =======+==========+=========+===========+==========+===========+==========

b. 1882–1895. Persons Convicted to 100,000 Inhabitants over 12 Years.

========+==========+=========+===========+==========+===========+==========
| Offenses | | Murder | Assault | Bodily | Offenses
Years. | against | Insult. | and | in | Injuries | against
| Morals. | | Homicide. | General. | Punished | Personal
| | | | | as Crime. | Liberty.
--------+----------+---------+-----------+----------+-----------+----------
1882 | 7.8 | 117 | 1.0 | 60 | 111 | 10
1883 | 7.6 | 119 | 1.0 | 63 | 121 | 11
1884 | 7.6 | 127 | 0.8 | 68 | 142 | 15
1885 | 7.6 | 119 | 0.9 | 65 | 151 | 17
1886 | 8.9 | 124 | 0.8 | 68 | 153 | 19
1887 | 8.8 | 133 | 0.8 | 68 | 163 | 19
1888 | 9.1 | 130 | 0.6 | 64 | 156 | 18
1889 | 8.4 | 131 | 0.6 | 68 | 166 | 21
1890 | 8.8 | 138 | 0.6 | 74 | 175 | 23
1891 | 8.5 | 133 | 0.6 | 74 | 173 | 24
1892 | 9.0 | 137 | 0.9 | 76 | 177 | 26
1882-91 | 8.3 | 129 | 0.8 | 68 | 153 | 18
1894 | 10.5 | 156 | 0.7 | 87 | 208 | 29
1895 | 10.9 | 161 | 0.7 | -- | 220 | --
1896 | 11.1 | 158 | 0.6 | -- | 220 | --
========+==========+=========+===========+==========+===========+==========

“The great economic crisis beginning in 1873 was accompanied by the characteristic phenomenon that dissatisfaction with the existing economic, social, and political conditions affected wider circles than heretofore, that this embittered people’s minds, and brought about sharp oppositions and struggles of the industrial classes against each other, especially the struggle of labor against capital. The need of an economic reform was more and more felt, which is to be attained, in the opinion of the powerful, by force, and in that of the thoughtful, by social legislation. All public life since the seventies has been dominated by this idea.” [79]

Here also economic conditions are causes of crime, and show themselves principally in resistance to officials, etc. The tables show also an increase in the cases of perjury, bodily injuries, and other crimes that are the consequences of grossness. The increase is due, according to Dr. Müller, to bad economic conditions. For as a consequence of these the number of civil cases rose from 60,000 (the average for 1871–1873) to 120,000 and 135,000 (1876–1877) and it is by these cases that perjury becomes possible. It is necessary to attribute to the same causes the great increase in the number of cases of crimes against personal liberty (also, since 1876, to the abolition of the requirement of a complaint for prosecution).

III. Crimes against the Public Order.

a. 1854–1878. New Cases.

========+============+===============+==========+=================+============== | | Offenses | | | Years. | Rebellion. | against | Perjury. | Counterfeiting. | Leze-majesty. | | Public Order. | | | --------+------------+---------------+----------+-----------------+-------------- 1854 | 18.6 | -- | 3.0 | 0.83 | 0.63 1855 | 18.2 | 16.7 | 2.6 | 0.64 | 0.71 1856 | 18.0 | 23.2 | 2.7 | 0.71 | 0.40 1857 | 19.5 | 29.8 | 2.9 | 0.49 | 0.34 1858 | 19.7 | 28.7 | 2.7 | 0.50 | 0.53 1859 | 18.6 | 26.9 | 2.9 | 0.48 | 0.68 1860 | 19.7 | 30.2 | 3.0 | 0.39 | 0.51 1861 | 17.2 | 29.6 | 3.0 | 0.42 | 0.38 1862 | 19.9 | 29.0 | 3.0 | 0.50 | 0.47 1863 | 20.8 | 26.9 | 3.2 | 0.38 | 1.16 1864 | 23.1 | 26.6 | 3.2 | 0.40 | 1.00 1865 | 23.8 | 28.1 | 3.4 | 0.28 | 0.64 1866 | 23.4 | 24.2 | 3.1 | 0.39 | 1.94 1867 | 23.1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 0.49 | 0.91 1868 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 3.4 | 0.57 | 0.54 1869 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 3.6 | 0.48 | 0.38 1870 | 19.0 | 21.7 | 3.1 | 0.36 | 0.66 1871 | 19.4 | 17.9 | 2.4 | 0.45 | 0.96 1872 | 23.6 | 26.4 | 3.2 | 0.38 | 0.67 1873 | 24.7 | 31.8 | 3.2 | 0.41 | 0.73 1874 | 28.6 | 43.7 | 3.7 | 0.45 | 1.23 1875 | 32.2 | 41.3 | 3.8 | 0.87 | 1.26 1876 | 32.7 | 47.0 | 4.2 | 1.21 | 0.86 1877 | 33.8 | 43.4 | 4.8 | 1.45 | 0.93 1878 | 33.7 | 49.6 | 5.5 | 2.24 | 9.93 ========+============+===============+==========+=================+==============

b. 1882–1896. Persons Convicted.

========+=============+==============+==========+==================
Years. | Violence to | Violation of | Perjury. | Embezzlement in
| Officials. | Domicile. | | Military Service.
--------+-------------+--------------+----------+------------------
1882 | 40 | 56 | 3.1 | 49
1883 | 39 | 52 | 2.7 | 54
1884 | 42 | 60 | 3.0 | 55
1885 | 40 | 57 | 3.0 | 57
1886 | 42 | 61 | 2.5 | 61
1887 | 43 | 58 | 8.8 | 66
1888 | 39 | 53 | 8.5 | 72
1889 | 39 | 58 | 8.6 | 61
1890 | 40 | 59 | 8.7 | 61
1891 | 40 | 57 | 8.5 | 56
1892 | 41 | 59 | 8.5 | 58
1882-91 | 41 | 58 | 8.8 | 60
1894 | 47 | 62 | 8.3 | 51
1895 | 47 | 65 | -- | --
1896 | 47 | 63 | -- | --
========+=============+==============+==========+==================

“The chief reasons why this crime (against personal liberty), like most crimes against persons, has constantly increased up to the present, in addition to the growing discontent with the present economic situation, are two; first, the effect of the spread of great manufactories in breaking up the family life, with concomitant lack of moral and religious education, and the too early necessity for self-supporting labor ...; and second, the present inordinate desire for pleasure, whose results are seen not least in the harmful effects of the immoderate consumption of alcohol; for that this is a prolific source of the multiplication of crime can hardly be doubted.” [80]

Dr. Müller’s final conclusion is as follows: “We may regard it as an established truth that, in the last analysis, the cause for the increase and decrease of crime as a whole is to be found in the presence or absence of a chance for employment and gain, in the condition of individual lines of industry, and in the greater or less degree in which the population as a whole in consequence of this, are in a position to consume.” [81]

—Recently it has been proved that the conclusion of Dr. Müller with regard to the slight influence of the price of grain upon criminality was not entirely correct. Notwithstanding the growing influence of the industrial situation upon criminality, the price of grain has retained a certain influence. [82]—

XVIII.

CRITICISM.

The authors treated of in this chapter, and many others whom I have had to put under other headings as belonging to some special school, all have this point in common, that they try to find the causes of crime by means of statistics. The first question that arises is this: do criminal statistics give a real and complete picture of criminality? The answer is categorically, No. To give only a few reasons, there are a great many crimes, naturally insignificant, which remain unknown even to the person injured; there are others of which justice never takes cognizance, because the injured party has filed no complaint, either because he has pardoned the offender, or fears the trouble of a criminal trial, etc.

In general, not all the cases known to justice are included in the criminal statistics but only those in which sentence is pronounced. An exception is found in Mayr’s book (§ VI of this chapter), in which all the crimes known to justice appear. In the first place the public officer dismisses many cases because of their insignificance (Germany is an exception—there the officer must prosecute); and in the second place there are a number of crimes whose authors remain unknown. Finally, only a part of those arraigned are convicted. Criminal statistics, therefore, cover only a part of the crime that exists. [83]

The enemies of statistics have drawn from the preceding fact the conclusion that criminal statistics are useless for the study of the etiology of crime. This is an absolutely false conclusion, as false as it would be to claim that doctors cannot find the cause of a disease, because besides the thousands of cases known to them, there are at least as many that remain unknown. The only question that arises is the following: is the number known sufficient? is there a sufficiently large body of facts in hand for inductive studies? As far as criminality is concerned the answer can be perfectly positive. The number of offenses that do not appear in the criminal statistics is certainly large; they are, however, chiefly insignificant misdemeanors, such as insults, trifling assaults, petty thefts, etc. These would have little value in determining the etiology of crime, even if the statistics included them all. Serious crimes, on the other hand, in the majority of cases, without any doubt appear in the statistics. The great reason why criminal statistics suffice for etiological investigations is that the ratio of known crime to unknown remains relatively constant. The proofs of this are to be found in the criminal and judicial statistics themselves. The ratio between cases dismissed and those prosecuted, between convictions and acquittals, etc., etc., remains practically the same from one year to another. Further, every statistician of any experience is convinced that the law of averages rules more absolutely than any despot.

Finally it must be noted that the fact that there are a number of offenses which do not appear in the criminal statistics, does not mean that there are many criminals of whom the same can be said. It is the Italian school in particular that has maintained the proposition that in the struggle between the criminal and society it is the criminal that has the upper hand. This is a mistake; the criminal generally loses, and in the great majority of cases very quickly. Certainly the criminals are not punished for each crime, but the cases in which they remain unpunished are very rare. In the world of criminals itself there is no other opinion on this point. [84]

Although the value of statistics in studying the etiology of crime is certain, it must not be thought that they tell us everything. [85] I pass over here numerous things which most statistics still lack, for example, a classification by motive rather than according to the technical distinctions of the penal laws, [86]—and will simply call attention to the difficulty of making international comparisons. The difference merely in the penal laws makes the comparison very difficult, and in many cases even impossible. Further, the dissimilarity of procedure, the differences in the organization of the police, etc., increase this difficulty. [87] In general, we can say that international comparisons give results where the nature of the crime (as homicide, for example) minimizes the difference between the codes, and where the figures show considerable differences. We can truly say that for the etiology of crime statics are much less important than dynamics. When we apply the dynamic method to a fairly long period, we have also to allow for the changes that have taken place in the penal codes and in the police organization, etc.

The statistical method certainly contains many sources of error. It goes without saying that this is not a reason for not using it at all, but simply for being careful. We must guard against conclusions too hastily drawn. If statistics show less criminality among the Jews—as is generally the case—it is not safe to say, therefore, that the innate morality of the Jew is greater than that of other men. If crime increases during a certain period together with irreligion, we have no right to conclude that there is a causal connection between the two. The connection between the movement of the price of grain and that of crimes against property has been proved many times, as we have seen; if this parallelism of the two curves no longer occurs, we cannot say on that account that economic conditions no longer play a part in the etiology of these crimes; we have seen that in manufacturing countries the industrial situation in general dominates the course of economic criminality. Similar examples could easily be multiplied.

The statistical method is one of the most effective for discovering the etiology of crime, and my readers will see that I use it much of the time. Nevertheless, it must not be forgotten that this method, however important, is only one among several. It is chiefly valuable in finding the direct causes of crime; as to indirect causes it gives us much less information. I would call attention to the following example: several authors have proved that there is an inverse connection between economic conditions and crimes against persons, i.e. that these crimes increase in times of prosperity (this does not apply to recent times, however). The conclusion has often been drawn from these facts that an improvement in the lot of the working-class would lead, as a law of nature, to an increase in crimes of violence. This is a typical example of the insufficiency of the statistical method alone. When we seek for the cause of this phenomenon in another way, in the structure of society, we discover that it is to be found in the low moral and intellectual condition of the working-classes. There can be no law of nature at the root of the matter, else the well-to-do classes would be the violent criminals “par excellence.” It goes without saying that just the contrary is the case.

To sum up, I conclude that statistics furnish a powerful means of discovering the causes of crime, provided they are used critically and carefully. The statistical method is not the only one; to be a good criminologist, it is necessary to be a statistician, but it is necessary to be a sociologist also.

[Note to the American Edition: Upon the relation between sociology and statistics see also Žižek, “Soziologie und Statistik.”

In recent years there has been a violent controversy over the statistical method. It was opened by Hoegel in his “Die Grenzen der Kriminalstatistik” and “Kriminalstatistik und Kriminalaetiologie”; then came Wassermann with his “Begriff und Grenzen der Kriminalstatistik”, and “Georg v. Mayr als Kriminalstatistiker und Kriminalsoziologe und die moderne Methodenlehre”, which goes farther and denies almost all value to the statistical method. On the other side, we find v. Mayr in his “Statistik und Gesellschaftslehre”, II, p. 441, “Forschungsgebiet und Forschungsziel der Kriminalstatistik”, “Kriminalstatistik und Kriminalaetiologie”, and Wadler in his “Erkenntnistheorie und Kriminalstatistik.”]

CHAPTER III.

THE ITALIAN SCHOOL. [88]

I.

C. LOMBROSO.

In “Crime, Its Causes and Remedies”, [89] one of his last works, Professor Lombroso treats, among other things, of the influence of economic conditions upon criminality.