Chapter CI: Section CCXXXIX: Limits to the Increase of Population

There is certainly one limit which the increase of no organic being can exceed: the limit of the necessary means of subsistence. But, so far as the human race is concerned, this notion is somewhat more extensive, inasmuch as it embraces besides food, also clothing, shelter, fuel, and a great many other goods which are not, indeed, necessary to life, but which are so considered.[239-1] We may illustrate the matter by a simple example in the rule of division. If we take the aggregate of the means of subsistence as a dividend, the number of mankind as divisor; then the average share of each is the quotient. Where two of these quantities are given, the third may be found. Only when the dividend has largely increased can the divisor and quotient increase at the same time (prosperous increase of population). If, however, the quotient remains unchanged, the increase of the divisor can take place only at the expense of the quotient (proletarian increase of population).[239-2] Hence it is to be expected that the quantity of the means of subsistence being given and also the requirement of each individual, the number of births and the number of deaths should condition each other. Where, for instance, the number of church livings has not been increased, only as many candidates can marry as clergymen who held such livings have died. The greater the average age of the latter is, the later do the former marry, in the average, and _vice versa_. And so, in the case of whole nations, when their economic consumption and production remain unaltered.[239-3] A basin entirely filled with water can be made to contain more only in case it is either increased itself, or a means is found to compress its contents. Otherwise as much must flow out on the one side as is poured in on the other.

And so, everything else remaining stationary, the fruitfulness of marriages must, at least in the long run, be in the inverse ratio of their frequency. (See § 247.)[239-4] [239-5]

[Footnote 239-1: When it is known that, in the Hebrides,
one-third of all the labor of the people has to be employed
in procuring combustible material (_McCulloch_, Statist.
Account, I, 319), it will no longer excite surprise that,
according to Scotch statistics, some parishes increase in
population after coal has been found in them, and others
decrease when their turf-beds are exhausted.]

[Footnote 239-2: Compare _Isaias_, 9:3. According to
_Courcelle-Seneuil_, Traité théorique et pratique d'Economie
politique, I, 1858, the _chiffre nécessaire de la population
égal à la somme des revenus de la société diminuée de la
somme des inégalités de consommation et divisée par le
minimum de consommation_: P=(R-J)/M.]

[Footnote 239-3: Thus _Süssmilch_, Göttliche Ordnung in den
Veränderungen des menschlichen Geschlechts, 1st ed., 1742,
4th ed., 1775, I, 126 ff., assumes that one marriage a year
takes place, on from every 107 to every 113 persons living.
On the other hand, 22 Dutch towns gave an average of 1 in
every 64. This abnormal proportion is very correctly
ascribed by _Malthus_, Principles of Population, II, ch. 4,
to the great mortality of those towns: viz., a death for
every 22 or 23 persons living, while the average is 1:36.
The Swiss, _Müret_, (in the Mémoires de la Société
économique de Berne, 1766, I, 15 ff.), could not help
wondering that the villages with the largest average
duration of life should be those in which there were fewest
births. "So much life-power and yet so few procreative
resources!" Here too, _Malthus_, II, ch. 5, solved the
enigma. The question was concerned with Alpine villages with
an almost stationary cow-herd business: no one married until
one cow-herd cottage had become free; and precisely because
the tenants lived so long, the new comers obtained their
places so late. Compare _d'Ivernois_, Enquête sur les Causes
patentes et occultes de la faible Proportion de Naissances à
Montreux: yearly 1:46, of the persons living, while the
average in all Switzerland was 1:28.

In France according to _Quételet_, Sur l'Homme, 1835, I, 83
ff., there was:

===============+===================+============+================
| _One marriage_ | _Children_ | _One death_
_In_ | _a year_ | _to a_ | _yearly _
| _for every_ | _marriage_ | _for every_
---------------+-------------------+------------+----------------
4 Departments |110-120 inhabitants| 3.79 |35.4 inhabitants
15 " |120-130 " | 3.79 |39.2 "
23 " |130-140 " | 4.17 |39.0 "
18 " |140-150 " | 4.36 |40.6 "
10 " |150-160 " | 4.43 |40.3 "
9 " |160-170 " | 4.48 |42.7 "
6 " |170 and more " | 4.48 |46.4 "
=================================================================

The two departments of Orne and Finisterre present a very
glaring contrast: in the former, one birth per annum on
every 44.8 (1851 = 51.6), a marriage on every 147.5, a death
on every 52.4 (1851 = 54.1) living persons; in the latter,
on the contrary, on every 26 (1851 = 29.8), 113.9 and 30.4
(1851 = 34.2). In Namur, the proportions were 30.1, 141,
51.8; in Zeeland, 21.9, 113.2, 28.5. (_Quételet_, I, 142.)
The Mexican province, Guanaxuato, presents the most
frightful extreme: one birth per annum on every 16.08 of the
population living, and one death in every 19.7. (_Quételet_,
I, 110.)]

[Footnote 239-4: Compare even _Steuart_, Principles, I, ch.
13. _Sadler_, Law of Population, 1830, II, 514:

=======================================+=============+===========
|_Marriages_ |_Children_
| _per annum_ |_on every_
| _on every_ | _100_
| _10,000_ |_Marriages_
|_inhabitants_|
---------------------------------------+-------------+-----------

In the purely Flemish provinces | |
of Belgium | 128 | 481
In the purely Wallonic provinces | |
of Belgium | 139 | 448
In the mixed provinces of Belgium | 152 | 425
In Holland | 148 | 476
In Lombardy | 166 | 489
In Bohemia | 173 | 413
In the kingdom of Saxony | 170 | 410
=======================================+=============+===========]

[Footnote 239-5: Compare _Horn_, Bevölkerungswissenschaftliche
Studien, I, 162 ff., 191, 252 ff. In most countries, there
is a much larger number of children to a marriage in the
rural districts than in the cities; but at the same time,
marriages are much less frequent there. In Saxony, however,
where the cities show a greater marital productiveness, the
rural districts present a large number of marriages. Of the
10 countries compared by _Wappäus_, II, 481 ff., only
Prussia and Schleswig are exceptions to the rule.]