Chapter CIII: Section CCXLI: Effect of Wars on Population

We may now understand why it is that only those wars which are accompanied by a diminution of the sources of the means of support decrease population. The loss in the numbers of mankind produced by wars, hardships, etc., would, as a rule, be readily made up for by increased procreation.[241-1] Thus, for instance, in Holland, the long Spanish war permitted an increase of the population for the reason that the national wealth increased at the same time; while the short war with Cromwell, which curtailed commerce, caused 3,000 houses in Amsterdam alone to remain empty.[241-2] In England and Wales, the population increased during the most frightful war of modern times, from 8,540,000 in 1790, to over 12,000,000 in 1821; in France, from, probably, 26,000,000 or 27,000,000 in 1791, to 29,217,000 in 1817. England, indeed, was itself never the seat of war, and its commerce was increased by the war in some directions as much as it was diminished by it in others. France's own territory was devastated only in the first and in the last years of the war. But the Revolution had, on the whole, once the storms of the Reign of Terror were over, not only more equally divided the means of subsistence in France, but it had developed them in a higher degree.[241-3] [241-4]

It cannot even be unconditionally predicated of emigration, that it hinders the increase of population. As soon as people have begun to calculate upon emigration, as a resort for themselves in case of distress, or upon the emigration of others, by which they would be left a larger field for action at home, a number of marriages is contracted and a number of children born; which would otherwise not have been the case. Most men, especially when young and enamoured, hope for the realization of all their wishes. Favorable chances, open to a great number of men alike and which every one thinks himself competent to calculate, are commonly over-estimated by the majority.[241-5] (See § 259.)

[Footnote 241-1: The war of 1870-71 cost Germany 44,890
lives. (Preuss. Statist. Ztschr., 1872, 293.) This number is
not quite 20 per cent. of the excess of births (794,206)
over deaths (563,065) in Prussia in the year 1865. On the
other hand, in from 1856 to 1861 there were 10,000 cases of
murder and manslaughter in all Europe, Turkey excepted.
(_Hausner_, Vergl. Statistik, I, 145.) About the end of the
last century, it was estimated that about 1,000,000 children
were born annually in France. (_Necker_, Administration des
Finances, I, 256.) Of these, about 600,000 outlived their
18th year. (_Peuschet_, Essai de Statistique, 31.) There
were, annually, about 220,000 marriages. Hence the number of
the unmarried was increased annually by 80,000 young men,
who, according to _Peucshet_ (32), amounted to over
1,450,000. According to this, the number of recruits, per
annum, might amount to hundreds of thousands without causing
any appreciable diminution in the number of births and
marriages. Compare _Malthus_, Principle of Population, II,
ch. 6. On the other hand, long continued wars have the
effect of keeping the men physically strongest from
marriage, and so to deteriorate the race.]

[Footnote 241-2: Richesse de Hollande, I, 149. During the
Amsterdam commercial crisis, from 1795 to 1814, there were
for every 4 births an average of 7 deaths. So that the
population, in 1795, was still 217,000, and in 1815, only
180,000. (_Bickes_, Bewegung der Bevölkerung Anhang, 28.)]

[Footnote 241-3: On the other hand, the population of East
Prussia, between 1807 and 1815 diminished 14 per cent. (_v.
Haxthausen_, Ländl. Verfassung der Preuss. Monarchie, I,
93.) The battles of the Seven Years' War are said to have
consumed 120,000 Russians, 140,000 Austrians, 200,000
Frenchmen, 160,000 Englishmen, Hanoverians, etc., 25,000
Swedes, 28,000 of the troops of the empire, and 180,000
Prussians. Yet the population of Prussia fell off 1,500,000.
(_Frédéric_, Oeuvres posthumes, IV, 414; Preuss. Gesch.
Friedrich's M., II, 349.) During the Thirty Years' War, the
population of Bohemia fell from 3,000,000 to 780,000.
(_Mailath_, Gesch. von Oesterr, III, 455.) Württemberg,
according to the military recruiting lists had a population,
in 1622, of 300,000 inhabitants. (_Spittler_, Werke, XII,
34.) In 1641, the population was only 48,000; according to a
promotion-speech of _J. B. Andreä_. But between 1628 and
1650, more than 58,000,000 florins were lost by war
contributions, and about 60,000,000 florins by plunder;
about 36,000 private houses were in ruins. (_Spittler_,
Württ. Gesch., 254.) On Alsace, Freisingen and Göttingen,
see _Londorp_, Bellum sexenn., II, 563; _Zschocke_,
Bayerische Geschichte, III, 302; _Spittler_, Hanov. Gesch.,
II, 37 ff., 114. On Germany generally, see _R. F. Hanser_,
Deutschland nach dem dreissigjährigen Kriege, 1862. However,
many estimates of the diminution of the population are
exaggerated, because it has not been considered that a great
part of the men who disappeared in one place fled to
another, for the time being more secure. Compare _Kius_ in
_Hildebrand's_ Jahrb., 1870, I ff.

The population of Massachusetts increased 8,310 yearly,
before the War of Independence; during the war, only 1,161,
although the enemy scarcely ever entered the country.
(_Ebeling_, Gesch. und Erdbeschreib. der V. Staaten I, 236.)
Russia had a mortality during the war years, 1853-55, of
2,272,000, 2,148,000, and 2,541,000; in the years of peace
previous, 2,000,000 at most.]

[Footnote 241-4: Besides the mere loss of men, war operates
destructively on production, since it affects especially the
most productive classes as to age, while pestilence, famine,
etc., carry off children, old people, and the feeble. Hence,
a people's public economy recovers more readily from the
last named misfortune than from war.]

[Footnote 241-5: Compare _Giov. Botero_, Della Cause della
Grandezza della Città, L. II, and Ragion di Stato, VIII, 95;
where colonization is compared to the swarming of bees. _W.
Raleigh_, Discourse of War in general, Works VIII. 257 ff.
Similarly _Child_, Discourse of Trade, 371 ff. _Ustariz_,
Teoria y Practica del Commercio, 1724, ch. 4. _Franklin_,
Observations on the Increase of Mankind, which reminds one
of the continued growth of polyps.]