Chapter CIX: Section CCXLVII

HISTORY OF POPULATION.--NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS.

There is found to be in most states, where a decrease in mortality has been observed, a diminished number of births likewise.[247-1] This, indeed, happens necessarily only in the case in which the means of subsistence either do not increase at all, or in a less degree than mortality has decreased. Thus, towards the end of the 18th century, Norway was the country where the increase and decrease of the population were most remarkable for their smallness. There was only one death between 1775 and 1784 for every 48 living persons; but, at the same time, only one marriage for every 130 living.[247-2] The organization of labor was so little developed among the Norwegians, especially in the absence of important cities, the industries of which might have been able to absorb the surplus population, that almost every one of its inhabitants was in a condition to calculate in advance whether or not he would have enough to support a family. A person born in the country remained generally in his native village all his life. To found a family he had either to own a peasant's estate himself or wait until one of the day laborer's huts (_Kathe_), of which there were several attached to each such estate, was vacant. A too large family would certainly have died of hunger in the winter time. The clear sober sense of the people recognized this fact, and all the farm houses of the peasants were without any appreciable injury to morality filled with unmarried servants of both sexes who were, indeed, supplied with clothes and food but who at the same time were indolent and incapable of advancement.[247-3] Where a nation's economy is rapidly advancing, there is no necessity why the most natural and when properly directed the most beneficent human impulse should be sacrificed to a higher average duration of life. But if this must be, when the distribution of the national resources is pretty nearly equal, it is not so much the number of marriages as the average fruitfulness of marriages that will diminish; that is as many persons as before may enter the married state but most of them are obliged either to postpone doing so until a later age, which places a greater interval between generation and generation, and causes the number of those living at any one time to decrease; or they cease to procreate children at an earlier period in their married life. The latter is found especially in France.[247-4] [247-5] But, on the other hand, where the distribution of the national resources is very unequal, the rich may afterwards as well as before continue to follow out their inclination to marry at as early a day and age as they wish; but the less fortunate must remain unmarried through life. Here, therefore, the average number of children to a marriage does not diminish; but the aggregate number of marriages does.[247-6] If the relative frequency of marriages in most European countries has diminished during the last century, the cause has been in part directly the long duration of life of married couples. Hence, we are not always warranted in consequence, to infer a diminished number of existing marriages.[247-7]

In many countries, it has been recently observed that the average number of persons to a family is a decreasing one. Thus for, instance, in 1840, in Holland, there were to every hundred families 497 persons, in 1850, only 481; in Saxony, in 1832, 460; in 1840, only 443; in Bavaria, in 1827, 480, in 1846, only 448. In cities also the average size of families is usually smaller than in the country.[247-8] This is intimately connected with this other fact that in the higher stages of civilization a larger number of independent households consists of single persons in contradistinction to married couples.[247-9] [247-10]

[Footnote 247-1: In France there was one child born alive,

In 1801-1805, on every 30.9 living.
In 1806-1810, " 31.6 "
In 1811-1815, " 41.5 "
In 1816-1820, " 31.6 "
In 1821-1825, " 32.1 "
In 1826-1830, " 33.0 "
In 1831-1836, " 34.0 "
In 1846-1850, " 37.8 "
In 1851-1854, " 37.88 "
In 1860-1864, " 37.56 "]

[Footnote 247-2: _Malthus_, Principle of Population, II, ch.
1. In Denmark, at the same time, 1 in 37 and 114.
(_Thaarup_, Dänische Statistik., II, 1, 4.)]

[Footnote 247-3: In modern times, the intellectual and legal
conditions which existed in Norway have been loosened to a
great extent, and population in that country has, in
consequence, made rapid advances. In 1769 the population was
only 723,000; in 1855, it was 1,490,000. But the above
customs for the most part continue still. Between 1831 and
1835, there was one marriage a year for every 138 living
persons. The relative number of marriages is smaller than
before. In 1769, there were, in every 1,000,376 married
persons; in 1801, 347; in 1825, 345; in 1835, 322. In 1805,
there were only 63 illegitimate births to every 1,000
births; in 1835, the proportion was 71.5 in every 1,000.
(_Blom_, Statistik Con N., II, 168, 173.)]

[Footnote 247-4: In England, there were, in 1838-47, of
every 1,000 contracting marriage, 94 who had not yet
completed their 21st year; in Belgium, 1840-50, only 54; but
the famine year, 1846-47, noticeably lowered the relative
number of minors in both countries. There were married--

Column Head Key: A - _In Belgium 1841-50._
B - _In the purely Flemish provinces._
C - _In the purely Wallonic provinces.
D - _Sweden 1831-35._
==============================================================
| A | B | C | D
-------------+-------+-------+-------+------------------------
| per | per | per |
| 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
Before their
21st year | 56 | 32 | 74 |{ 359 per 1,000 males.
From 22 to | | | |{
25 years | 219 | 181 | 259 |{ 463 per 1,000 females.

From 26 to | | | |{458 males, 387 females,
35 years | 503 | 511 | 490 |{ per 1,000.

From 36 to | | | |
45 years | 161 | 191 | 129 |{ 183 per 1,000 males.
After their | | | |{
45th year | 61 | 75 | 48 |{ 150 per 1,000 females.
==============================================================

But it must not be overlooked here, that the Flemish
provinces of Belgium had been for a long time in a sad
economic condition. (_Horn_, Studien, I, 75 ff.) No less
characteristic of the well-being of a people and their
providence in entering into the married state is the
relative age at which they contract marriage. If we divide
ages into four classes (up to the 30th year, between 31 and
45, between 46 and 60, and after 60), we find, for instance,
that from 1841 to 1845, there were in West Flanders 585 per
1,000 marriages between persons of the same age-class, 305
in which the husband, and 110 in which the wife belonged to
an older class; in Namur, on the other hand, 683, 234 and
83. In dear years, the relative number of marriages between
persons belonging to different age-classes, and the relative
difference in age of parties to the marriage contract
increases.

And so, the frequency of second marriages of widows and
widowers is no favorable symptom of the facility of founding
a family. Naturally every woman prefers a man who was never
married before to a widower; and every man a maiden to a
widow; but where there is a want of room to establish a new
household, the possession of such one by a widower may
readily preponderate over all counter considerations. Thus,
for instance, in the Flemish provinces of Belgium, of 1,000
widowers, from 365 to 395 marry again; in the Wallonic, only
from 293 to 308. Of 1,000 brides, 98 are widows in West
Flanders, and in Namur, 41. A similar proportion in Bavaria
between the Palatinate and the hither-districts. (_Hermann_,
Bewegung der Bevölkerung in Bayern, p. 14.) The less the
frequency of marriage in general, the greater is the
relative probability of second marriage for widows and
widowers; and hence, in years of scarcity, the latter
relatively increase. (_Horn_, Studien, I, 201 ff.) Sometimes
this increase is absolute: in Austria, during the cheap year
1852, there were 231,900 marriages between persons never
before married, and 85,000 in which at least one of the
contracting parties had been married before. On the other
hand, during the dear year 1855, there were only 156,000 of
the former and 89,000 of the latter. Something analogous,
observed in antiquity. (_Pausan._, II, 21, 8; X, 38, 6;
_Propert._, II, 11, 36.) _Tacitus_, Germ., 19, describes the
moral feelings of the ancient Germans as averse to the
second marriage of widows, and he apparently approves it.]

[Footnote 247-5: In 19 European countries, with an aggregate
population of 121,000,000, the number of the married
amounted to an average of 34.88 per cent. of the whole
population. France is at the head with 38.94 per cent.
(1866), even 40.5. In these countries, of all adults, there
is a percentage of 65.98 who marry. France is here, also, at
the head, with a percentage of 73.58. And the number of the
unmarried has continually decreased in post-revolutionary
France. In 1806, there were only 35.84 per cent. of the
population married. (_Wappäus_, A. Bevölk erungsstatistik,
II, 219, 223, 229.) In relation also to the frequency of
first marriages and of marriage at the proper age, France is
the best situated country. (_Haushofer_, Lehr- und Handbuch
der Statistik, 40 ff.) But at the same time, in what
concerns the fruitfulness of marriage, it is the farthest
behind; and since 1780 prolificacy has continually decreased
there. Thus, 1800-1815, 3.93 legitimate children to a
marriage; 1856-60, only 3.03; 1861-6, again 3.08. (_Legoyt_
in the Journal des Econ. Oct. 1870, 28.) How little this
depends upon physiological causes may be inferred from the
fact that _Strabo_ commends the women of the Gallic race for
their peculiar adaptability to bearing and rearing children.
(IV, 178, 196.) The "prudential checks" must play a
principal part in producing a low birth rate. (Statist.
Journal, 1866, 262), as we find in France

============================================================
| _Yearly per 100_ |
| _inhabitants._ | _Women who marry_
_In_ +------------------------+ _before their 25th_
|_Marriages._| _Births._ | _year_.
--------------+------------+-----------+--------------------
Brittany, | 7.0 | 29.8 | 42.7 per cent.
Adour, | 6.9 | 25.0 | 47.3 "
Lower Garonne,| 8.3 | 22.0 | 59.7 "
Upper Seine | 8.0 | 23.7 | 60.0 "
============================================================

That, however, the shorter duration and smaller fruitfulness
of marriage by no means necessarily accompany one another,
France also proves, since it possesses the longer average
duration of marriage: 26.4 years against 20.7 in Prussia.
(_Wappäus_, II, 311, 315.)]

[Footnote 247-6: The proportion of the married to the whole
population declined in Prussia from 35.09 in 1816, to 33.09
per cent. in 1852; in Sweden, from 36.41 in 1751 to 32.59
per cent. in 1855; in Norway, from 37.60 per cent. in 1769
to 32.21 per cent. in 1855; in Saxony, from 35.52 per cent.
in 1834, to 34.98 per cent. in 1849. (_Wappäus_, II, 229.)
If all who are at least 20 years of age be considered
competent to marry, there are of every 1,000 thus competent
in Belgium, 520 actually married; in the Flemish provinces
alone, 489; in the most favorably situated Wallonic, 554.
(_Horn_, Bevölk. Studien, I, 139 ff.) In Rome, under
Augustus, the proportion was much less satisfactory. In the
higher classes, a large majority did not marry at all.
(_Dio. Cass._, I, VI, 1.)]

[Footnote 247-7: In Halle, in 1700, there was one marriage
for every 77 of the population; in 1715, for every 99; in
1735, for every 140; in 1755, for every 167. In Leipzig, in
1620, there was one for every 82; 1741-1756, for every 118;
1868, for every 92.8. In Augsburg, 1510, one in 86; in 1610,
in 108; in 1660, in every 101; in 1750, in every 123. The
provinces of Magdeburg, Halberstadt, Cleve, Mark, Munden,
Brandenburg, Pomerania and Prussia had, about the end of the
seventeenth century, one marriage per annum for every 76-95
of the population; the Prussian monarchy, 1822-1828, one
marriage for every 109-121. Compare _Sussmilch_ Göttl.
Ordnung, I., 131, ff., _Schubert_ Staatskunde des preuss.
Staates I., 364. In France, 1801-1805, there was one
marriage per annum in every 137 living; in 1821-5, for every
129; in 1831-35, for every 127; in 1842-51, for every
125.39; in 1860, for every 124.7.]

[Footnote 247-8: In Prussia, in 1849, there were in every
one hundred families in the cities, 492 individuals; in the
country, 512. In Belgium, in 1846, 459 and 497 respectively.
(_Horn_, Bevölk. Studien, I, 88, ff.) In France, in 1853, in
the cities, 358; in Paris alone, 299. In the Zollverein, the
number of individuals in a family increased in 1852-55, 5.81
per cent.; the population only 3.02 per cent.; the
population of those over fourteen years of age, by 4.41 per
cent.; of minors by 1.02 per cent. Only in Saxony and the
cities of Hanover was the reverse the case. (_v. Viebahn_,
II, 278, seq.)]

[Footnote 247-9: Thus, for instance, in Belgium, for every
100 households, there are 74 marriages; in the cities of
Belgium, 70; in the Belgian country parishes, 75; in Prussia
in 1849, 84. (_Horn_, I, 93 seq.) It is estimated that in
Prussia, only 3 per cent. of the adult population live
outside of the family. (_Viebahn_, II, 273.)]

[Footnote 247-10: It is strange that _Süssmilch_, Göttl.
Ordnung, I, § 13, considers mortality an unalterable law,
while he fully recognizes the social grounds which caused
the frequency and prolificacy of marriages to vary (I, § 56,
99).]