Chapter CX: Section CCXLVIII

HISTORY OF POPULATION.--NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS.

So far as the mere number of the population is concerned, it is obviously a matter of indifference whether there are annually 1,000 births and 800 deaths, or 2,000 births and 1,800 deaths. But we see in the former an element of higher civilization,[248-1] especially, on account of the conditions which determine it. It can occur only where even the most numerous, that is the lower class, feel other wants than those of the mere means of existence and of the satisfaction of the sexual instinct: wants, duties which probably could not be satisfied in a state of marriage thoughtlessly entered into; where the virtues both of foresight and self-control are very generally practiced.

And then let us consider the consequences. The efficacy of the repressive hinderances to over-population either consists in immoral acts or easily leads to immorality. Until a "surplus" child has died, what a series of troubles for good parents, and what a chain of evil deeds for bad ones, to say nothing of the poor child itself.

Further, every man, no matter how short or long his life, requires a large advance of capital and trouble which he has later to return to society through the activity of his riper years. If he dies before his maturity, this advance has been made in vain. The more, therefore, the population of a country, in order to maintain itself within the bounds of its field of food, has to calculate on the death of children, the greater is this loss.[248-2] Hence, from a national-economic point of view, it is to be considered a great advance, that in England in 1780, there was one death among its people under 20 years of age in every 76 of the population, in 1801, in every 96, in 1830, in every 124, in 1833, one only in every 137. (_Porter._) Lastly, the longer the average duration of life of a child the greater, other circumstances remaining the same, the number of grown people as compared with that of the children; but grown people are, as a rule, independent, capable of self-defense, economically productive, competent to discharge all the rights and duties of citizenship, while children are dependent, incapable of self-defense, unproductive, immature. Only he who knows the relative numbers of the different age-classes of a nation can draw fruitful conclusions from the data per capita relating to taxation, from the statistics of crime, suicides, illegitimate births, of school-children, etc., or judge correctly of a locality's military contingent.[248-3] [248-4] Here, indeed, it should not be overlooked that in the highest age-classes, human beings return in many respects to the helplessness of childhood. Yet, as a rule, to reach a good old age is generally considered a personal good fortune; and the existence of a great many aged persons in a country, if not in itself an advantageous element in its economy, may, nevertheless, be called a pleasing symptom.[248-5] On an average there is only one person over sixty to every twelve under fifteen years of age. (_J. G. Hoffmann._) We may, hence, readily measure what an advantage France possesses in this, that in 1861, in every 1,000 inhabitants, only 273 were under fifteen years of age, 524 between sixteen and fifty, the most vigorous years of life, and 203 over fifty years old. The average age of the French population was 31.06 years against 27.22 in Sardinia and 25.32 in Ireland.

However, a positively unfavorable conclusion from a relatively large number of children in a nation should not be drawn except in the case of a people the limits of whose field of food cannot be extended. (§ 239.) Where the nation's economy has a rapid growth, as for instance in young colonies, the comparatively easy rearing of children which there obtains, without any corresponding mortality, is not so much considered a burthen[248-6] as a symptom of their good fortune and even a positive good.[248-7] On the other hand, of the Belgian provinces, for instance, suffering Flanders had relatively the smallest number of children, because it had the largest child-mortality.[248-8]

Almost all the signs which, according to the above paragraphs, distinguish a higher stage of civilization from a lower, may be shown within the limits of the same age and nation to characterize the upper classes as compared with the lower. We may even claim that the greater foresight and self-control of the former in the matter of marriage and in the procreation of children, since the abolition of the greater number of legal advantages of class, are by far the most important of the elements constituting their superiority over the latter. The word proletariat, from _proles_, means first of all, having many children (_Vielkinderei_)!

[Footnote 248-1: _J. Möser_ did not even dream of this.
Patr. Phant., I, 15.]

[Footnote 248-2: _Rossi_, Cours d'Economie politique, I,
371, estimates the cost of bringing up a child to its 16th
year at a minimum of 1,000 francs. Hence, a country with
1,000,000 births annually, in which only 50 per cent. reach
that age, would lose 500,000,000 francs per annum. However,
over one-third of the children in question die in the first
years of childhood, and the rest do not reach on an average
their 16th year, but die between the age of 7 and 8:
_Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 259. _Engel_ estimates
Saxony's "man-capital" at 4 times the value of all the land
in the country, and at 10 times the value of all movable
property. (Sächs., Statist. Zeitschr., 1855, No. 9. Preuss.
Statist. Zeitschr., 1861, 324.) One of the chief advocates
of the view that there is an investment of capital in every
child is _Chadwick_ in the opening address delivered by him
before an English learned society at Cambridge: Statist.
Journal, Dec., 1862. Lancashire alone pays a penalty per
annum for preventable deaths of £4,000,000, for the funeral
and medical expenses; to say nothing of the capital lost
(506).]

[Footnote 248-3: _Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 51 ff.
_Quetelet_, Recherches statist. sur le Royaume des Pays-Bas,
1827, 1, 9, and Du Système social, 1848, 176 ff., specially
called attention to the important differences in this
relation, between the productive and unproductive years of
life. Thus it should not be forgotten, when reading of the
greater mortality of the poor quarters of Paris, that
strangers who are for the most part in the vigorous years of
life, live there least of all.]

[Footnote 248-4: In Russia, it seems that only 36 per cent.
of all those born outlive their 20th year; in England, 55
per cent. (_Porter_, Progress, ch. I, 29.) The Russian
peasants are said to have from 10 to 12 children, only about
one-third of whom grow to maturity, (_v. Haxthausen_, I,
128.) In the United States, the population was in 1820
divided into two nearly equal parts as to age, the 16th year
of age forming the dividing point; in England the same was
the case, only the dividing point was 20 years of age.
(_Tucker_, Progress of the United States, 16, 63.)]

[Footnote 248-5: There were in

---------------------------------------------------------------
|_Years._|_From 0 to_ |_From 16 to_ | _Over 50_
| | _15 years_ | _50 years_ | _years_
| | _of age._ | _of age._ | _of age._
---------------------------------------------------------------
| | Per 1,000 | Per 1,000 | Per 1,000
| | of the pop.| of the pop. | of the pop.
| | | |
Belgium, | 1846 | 323 | 509 | 168
Prussia, | 1849 | 370 | 504 | 126
Great Britain,| 1851 | 354 | 504 | 142
Holland, | 1849 | 333 | 509 | 158
Saxony, | 1840 | 339 | 505 | 156
Sweden, | 1850 | 328 | 511 | 161
---------------------------------------------------------------

In Great Britain, the census of 1851 gave 596,030 persons
over 70 years of age; 9,847, over 90; 2,038, over 95; 319,
over 100 years of age. (Athen., 12 Aug., 1854.) In France,
in 1851, there were 1,319,960 persons seventy years of age
and over. In the United States the population of--

----------------------------------------------------------------
| _Per English_ | _Relative number of
| _square mile._ | _children under ten
| | _years._
----------------------------------------------------------------
| 1800 | 1840 | 1800 | 1840
------------------------|---------------------------------------
| | | per cent. | per cent.
New England, | 19.2 | 34.8 | 63.5 | 51.1
The Middle States, | 15.3 | 43.6 | 70.7 | 55.7
The Southern States, | 8.9 | 15.9 | 73.0 | 67.8
The Southwestern States,| 1.3 | 13.7 | 77.6 | 75.5
The Northwestern States,| 2.3 | 25.5 | 84.9 | 73.8
----------------------------------------------------------------

In the whole Union, in 1830, the age classes up to 20 years
embraced 56.12 per cent. of the population; in 1840, 54.62
per cent; in 1850, 51.85 per cent. Compare _Horn_, Bevölk.
Studien, I, 126; _Wappäus_, A. Bevölk. Stat., II, 44, 125
ff., 88; _Tucker_, Progress of the United States, 105.]

[Footnote 248-6: As _Wappäus_ says that in America an equal
number of adults must work for at least a third larger
number of children than in Europe: "a much more unfavorable
situation, so far as production-force is concerned." (A.
Bevölk. St., II, 44.)]

[Footnote 248-7: _Horn_, I, 127 ff. The Becoming is not only
more pleasant than the Having become, but it may even stand
higher in so far as the latter consists only in being
resigned to further development.]

[Footnote 248-8: _Les mendiants sont dans le cas des peuples
naissants_ etc. _Montesquieu_, E. der Lois, LXXIII, 11. In
England and Wales in 1851-60, there died yearly before their
sixth year, 7.24 per cent. of all male children born, but in
the families of peers, only 2.22 per cent. (Stat. Journal,
Sept., 1865.) If we grade the quarters of the city of Berlin
according to the well-being of their inhabitants, we find
that in the lower, the number of married men between 18 and
25 years is successively greater 1.1, 1.4, 2.4 and 3.4 per
cent. (_Schwabe_, Völkszählung von, 1871, 24.)]