Chapter CII: Section CCXL

INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASE OF THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE.

The sexual instinct and the love for children are incentives of such universality and power, that an increase of the means of subsistence is uniformly followed by an increase in the numbers of mankind. _Partout, où deux personnes peuvent vivre commodément, il se fait un mariage._ (_Montesquieu._) Thus after a good harvest, the number of marriages and births is wont to considerably increase; and conversely to diminish after bad harvests.[240-1] [240-2] [240-3] In the former case, it is rather hope than actual possession which constitutes the incentive to the founding of new families. Hence the greatest increase is not found in connection with the absolutely lowest price of corn, but with those prices which present the most striking contrast to those of a previous bad year.[240-4]

The introduction of the potato has promoted the rapid increase of population in most countries. Thus, the population of Ireland in 1695, was only 1,034,000; in 1654, when the cultivation of the potato became somewhat more common it was 2,372,000; in 1805, 5,395,000; in 1823, 6,801,827; in 1841, 8,175,000. In 1851, after the fearful spread of the potato-rot it fell again to 6,515,000.[240-5] In general, every new or increasing branch of industry, as soon as it yields a real net product is wont to invite an increase of population. Machines, however, have not this effect only when they operate to produce rather a more unequal division of the national income than an absolute increase of that income.[240-6]

[Footnote 240-1: That rich food directly increased
prolificacy is proved from the fact that, for instance, our
domestic animals are much more prolific than wild ones of
the same species. Compare _Villermé_, in the Journ. des
Economistes VI, 400 ff. The months richest in conceptions
fall universally in the spring, and again in the pleasant
season immediately following the harvest. On the other hand,
during the seasons of fast in the Catholic church the number
of cases of conception is below the average. (Jour. des
Econ., 1857, 808).]

[Footnote 240-2: Thus the annual mean number of marriages
amounted to:

=============================================
| _Between 1841_ | _In 1847_
| _and 1850._ | _alone._
--------------+----------------+-------------
In Saxony, | 15,505 | 14,220
In Holland, | 22,352 | 19,280
In Belgium, | 28,968 | 24,145
In France, | 280,330 | 249,797
=============================================

_Horn_, loc. cit. I, 167. In the governmental district
(_Regierungsbezirke_) of Düsseldorf, there was in the years
of scarcity, 1817 and 1818, one marriage for every 134 and
137 souls; on the other hand, in 1834 and 1835, in every 103
and 105. (_Viebahn_, I, 120 seq.) In England, the variations
in the yearly price of corn are reflected in the variations
in the number of yearly marriages. Thus, in 1800, 114
shillings per quarter; 1801, 122 shillings; 1802 (Peace of
Amiens), 70 shillings; 1803, 58 shillings. The number of
marriages in the four years respectively was 69,851, 67,288,
90,396, 94,379. (_Porter_, Progress of the Nation, III, ch.
14, 453.)

Similarly in Germany, in 1851, the conclusion of peace
increased the number of marriages, and the scarcity of 1817
diminished it. In Prussia, in 1816, there was one marriage
for every 88.1 of the population; in 1828, for every 121.4;
in 1834 (origin of the great Zollverein), for every 104; in
1855, for every 136.4; in 1858 (hope of a new era), in every
105.9. (_v. Viebahn_, Statistik des Zollvereins II, 206.)

In Austria, the price of rye was:

==============================================
| _Per Metze._ | _No. of_
| | _Marriages._
----------+--------------+--------------------
In 1851, | 2.47 florins | 336,800
In 1852, | 2.11 " | 316,800
In 1853, | 3.38 " | 283,400
In 1854, | 4.36 " | 258,000
In 1855, | 4.43 " | 245,400 (_Czörnig._)
==============================================

On Sweden, see Wargentin in _Malthus_, II, ch. 2.

The decreased number of births in consequence of a bad
harvest, and _vice versa_, appears of course only during the
following calendar year. Thus, in 1847, as compared with the
average of the years 1844 and 1845, there were fewer
children born in England by 4 per 1,000, in Saxony by 7 per
1,000, in Lombardy by 59, in France by 63, in Prussia by 82,
in Belgium by 122, in Holland by 159 per 1,000. (_Horn_, I,
239 ff.) In Germany, the conscription-years corresponding to
the scarcity time, 1816-17, gave a _minus_ of 25 per cent.
in many places below the average. (_Bernouilli_,
Populationistik, 219.) In the case of marriage, the relative
increase or decrease is still more characteristic, so far as
our purpose is concerned, than the absolute increase or
decrease. Thus in Belgium, for instance, against 1,000
marriages dissolved by death, there were, in 1846, only 971
new ones contracted, and in 1847 only 747; while in 1850
there were 1,500. The falling off in Flanders alone was
still greater. Thus, in 1847, there were only 447 marriages
contracted for 1,000 dissolved. (_Horn_, I, 170 ff.)
However, _Berg_, using Sweden as an illustration, rightly
calls attention to the fact, that the variations in the
number of marriages and births is determined in part by the
number of adults, that is, of the number of births 20 and
more years before. Compare _Engel's_ Statist. Zeitschr.,
1869, 7.]

[Footnote 240-3: Sometimes, a sudden increase in the
frequency of marriages may have very accidental and
transitory causes. Thus, for instance, in France in 1813,
when the unmarried were so largely conscripted, the number
of marriages rose to 387,000, whereas the average of the
five previous years was 229,000. (_Bernouilli_,
Populationistik, 103.)]

[Footnote 240-4: Thus, for instance, in nearly all countries
affected by the movement of 1848, there were, during the
last months of that year, an unusually large number of
conceptions. (_Horn_., I, 241 seq.) According to
_Dieterici_, Abh. der Berliner Akademie, 1855, 321 ff.,
there was one birth a year for the number of persons living.

========================================================
| _Ten years' average._ | _1849 alone._
------------+----------------------------+--------------
In France, | 36.19 | 35.79
In Tuscany, | 24.42 | 22.82
In Saxony, | 24.51 | 23.08
In Prussia, | 25.5 | 23.62
========================================================

The great majority of men at that time believed all they
liked to believe.]

[Footnote 240-5: _Marshall_, Digest of all Accounts, I, 15.
_Porter_, I, ch. I, 9.]

[Footnote 240-6: _Wallace_, in this respect, places industry
far behind agriculture. (On the Numbers of mankind in
ancient and modern Times.) The county of Lancashire had, in
1760, that is shortly before the introduction of the great
machine industry, 297,000 inhabitants; in 1801, 672,000; in
1831, 1,336,000; in 1861, 2,490,000. Saxony has, in almost
every place, a relatively large number of births in
proportion as in any locality, commerce and industry
preponderate over agriculture, and _vice versa_. See
_Engel_, Bewegung der Bevölkerung im K. Sachsen, 1854. But
this should not be generalized into a universal law. For
instance, Prussia and Posen have an average number of births
greater than that of the Rhine country and Westphalia. (_v.
Viebahn_, Statistik des L. V, II, 222.)]