Chapter CVIII: Section CCXLVI

HISTORY OF POPULATION.--IN HIGHLY CIVILIZED TIMES.

The conditions of population among mature and flourishing nations is characterized by this, that the moral and rational preventive tendencies counter to over-population decidedly preponderate. Here so much value is attached to the life, and to the healthy and comfortable life of human beings already in existence that even the majority of the lower classes take care to bring no more children into the world than can be properly supported, nor to bring them into being in advance of food. Here, too, mortality is relatively small, which when population is stationary is found in connection with a higher average duration of human life.[246-1] While among savage and semi-savage nations, travelers are struck by no phenomenon as much as by the total absence of old men,[246-2] in most European nations the average duration of life has, during the last centuries, seemed to noticeably increase. In France, for instance, between 1771 and 1780, on a population of 29,000,000 at most, there were as many deaths as on 35,000,000 between 1844 and 1853.[246-3] In Sweden, the classic land of statistics relating to population, mortality from 1749 to 1855 had diminished 0.107 per cent. per annum.[246-4] [246-5]

No reasonable man considers mere living the highest good; but, from an average prolongation of life, we may with great probability infer an improvement in the means of subsistence, in hygienic measures, etc., even for the lower classes, who everywhere constitute the great majority of the population. _Aisance est vitalité!_--at least on the supposition that morality remains the same.[246-6] How great may not have been the effect, for instance, of the healthier mode of the building of modern cities, of the disappearance of the greater number of fortifications etc., the more rational character of the healing art, the extension of vaccination,[246-7] the hygienic measures adopted by governments,[246-8] the better care of the poor and especially the asylums for small children! The modern system of agriculture and of the corn trade make famines less destructive of life.[246-9] (§ 115). The modern quarantine-system has protected us entirely against a number of plagues; and the worst epidemics of our day cannot be compared with those of earlier periods or in less civilized countries. In the second half of the 17th century, it was estimated in London that a plague would occur once in every 20 years, each of which swept away one-fifth of the entire population.[246-10] And in that very city the annual mortality between 1740 and 1750 varied three-fifths, during the second half of the 18th century only one-third, during the 19th century only one-fifth in the same decade; a clear proof of the diminished fatality of epidemics.[246-11] [246-12]

[Footnote 246-1: The so-called _Populationistikers_ are wont
to distinguish between the average and probable duration of
life (_vie moyenne--vie probable_); and understand by the
former the number of years which, on an average, have been
accorded to one deceased; by the latter, the number of years
after the expiration of which one-half of a given number of
human beings have disappeared. If _x_ deceased persons have
lived an aggregate of _s_ years, their average duration of
life = _s_/_x_. In the case of a whole people, indeed, even
the many-years' average of the duration of life of those
deceased expresses the true average duration of life only
when (a rare case) the aggregate population remains
stationary. For, when the population is increasing, the
average age of the deceased is smaller than the average
duration of life, and, when population is decreasing,
larger. In the saddest case of all, when there are no births
whatever, and the nation is gradually dying out, there would
be an increase from year to year of the average age. In all
such cases, strictly speaking, only the actual observation
and following up of those born, until they die; can afford a
safe result. This is _Hermann's_ method, introduced into
Bavaria since 1835. Compare the XIII. and XVII. numbers of
the official Bavarian statistics with _G. Meyer's_ criticism
in _Hildebrand's_ Jahrbüchern, 1867, I. And indeed _Hopf_,
Preuss. Statist. Zeitschr., says that a complete table of
mortality can be made, according to the best method, only
after centuries of observation.

Compare _Kopf_, in the 3d edition of _Kolb's_ Handbuch der
Statistik, and the solid works of _G. F. Knapp_, Ueber die
Ermittelung der Sterblichkeit (1868) and Die Sterblichkeit
in Sachsen (1869). _Price's_ mode of calculation of which
_Deparcieux_ is the real author, which divides the number of
the living by the arithmetical mean of the number of births
and deaths is not only inaccurate (_Meyer_, loc. cit., 43
ff.) but erroneous in principle, since it allows two
countries of equal population to be the same, the one of
which has 120,000 births and a mortality of 80,000, and the
other, on the contrary, 80,000 births and a mortality of
120,000. _Engel_ recommends as the measure of real vitality
the ratio between the "living years" and the "dead years,"
meaning by the former the sum of the years which those still
living have lived through, and by the latter the sum of the
years lived through by those who have died within a given
period. (Preuss. Statist. Zeitschr., 1861, 348 ff.) But the
inference which may be drawn from a high or a low average of
life is altogether ambiguous. A high average may as well be
produced by a great mortality among children as by a
favorable mortality among those of mature age; and a low
average as well by a relatively small number of births as by
a relatively short duration of life. (_Meyer_, loc. cit.,
23, 24.)]

[Footnote 246-2: On the aborigines of America, see Lettres
édifiantes, VII, 317 ff. _Cook,_ Third Voyage, III, ch. 2.
_La Pérouse_, Voyage, ch. 9. _Robertson_, Hist. of America
B., IV. _Raynal_, Histoire des Indes L., XV. On the African
negroes: _M. Park_, ch. 1. They are said to manifest the
symptoms of old age at 40, and very seldom to live to be
over 55 or 60 years of age.]

[Footnote 246-3: _Necker_, De l'Administration des Finances
de la France, 1784, I, 205 ff., gives for 1771-80 the
average number of births, per annum, 940,935; of deaths,
818,391; the population at 24,229,000. _Legoyt_, Statist.
Comp., estimates the last, in 1784, at at least 26,748,843,
probably even at 28,718,000. During the period, 1844-53,
35,000,000 to 36,000,000 Frenchmen had only about as many
births (956,317) and deaths (815,723) as a much smaller
population before the Revolution--the latter numbers,
according to official estimation, omitting the
still-born--which _Necker_ also scarcely took into
consideration. _C'est la différence entre un peuple de
prolétaires et une nation, dont les deux tiers jouissent des
bienfaits de la propriété. (Moreau de Jonnès)._ In France,
there was one death, in 1784, on every 30 living; in 1801,
on every 35.8 living; in 1834-5, on every 38 living; in
1844, on every 39.9 living; in 1855-57 (average), on every
41.1 living; in 1860-65 (average), on every 43.7 living. It
is also probable, that the average duration of life in
France increased from the fact that, from 1800 to 1807, the
number of persons subject to conscription was only 45 per
cent. of the whole corresponding number of births; but that
from 1822 to 1825 it was 61 per cent. (_Bernoulli_,
Populationistik, 452.) On Paris alone, see _Villermé_,
Mémoire lu à l'Académie des Sciences, 29 Nov., 1824. Compare
_supra_, § 10.]

[Footnote 246-4: _Wappäus_, Allg. Bevölkerungsstatistik. In
Prussia, in the less cultured provinces (the eastern), the
mortality and number of births is greatest; but in the whole
country the relative mortality seems to have remained
stationary since 1748. (_Engel_, Preuss. Statist. Zeitschr.,
1861, 336 seq.) And even the average age of the deceased
decreased even between 1820 and 1860 (344 ff.) In Berlin
alone, the arithmetical mean of the number of births and
deaths shows no improvement, at least (loc. cit. 1862,
195).]

[Footnote 246-5: In Geneva, where there have been almost
uninterrupted tables of mortality, giving the age at the
time of death, the average duration of life during the 2d
half of the 16th century is estimated at 21-1/6 years;
during the 17th century, at 25-3/4 years; from 1701 to 1750,
at 32-7/12 years; from 1750 to 1800, at 34-1/2 years; from
1814 to 1833, at 40-2/3 years. Compare _Mallet_, Recherches
historiques et statistiques sur la Population de Genève,
1837, 98 ff., 104 ff., and _Bernouilli_, Schweiz, Archiv.,
II, 77; _per contra, d'Ivernois_, sur la Mortalité
proportionelle des peuples considérée comme Mesure de leur
Aisance et Civilization, 1833, 12 ff. But little can be
inferred from this, on account of the large immigration, of
adults for the most part. Geneva is said to have had, in the
16th century, never much more than 13,000 inhabitants; at
the end of the 17th century it had 17,000; in 1789, 26,000;
between 1695 and 1795 there was an increase of 6,000 at
least from abroad. (_Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 369 seq.)
Compare _Wappäus_ in the Götting. Gesellsch. der Wissensch.
Bd., VIII, 1860, who, however, as well as _Neison_,
Contributions to Vital Statistics, VI ff., is too skeptical
as regards modern progress in vitality.]

[Footnote 246-6: Higher civilization, indeed, instead of
leading to higher vitality, may lead to immoderate toil and
immoderate enjoyment. (_Schäffle_, in the D.
Vierteljahrsschrift, April, 1862, 340.) _Engel_ says that,
in general, life is more intense in our day, and hence leads
to a more rapid exhaustion of individual life-force.
(Preuss. Statist. Ztschr., 1862, 53.) According to English
experience of the well-fed classes, those have the greatest
duration of life who otherwise live in modest circumstances.
Thus, for instance, clergymen thirty years of age have still
an average expectation of life of 39.49 years; members of
the learned professions, 38.86; country gentlemen, 40.22;
members of the aristocracy, 37.31; princes of the blood,
only 34.04; sovereigns, only 27.16 (Statist. Journal, 1859,
356 ff.); while agricultural laborers, who have sufficient
means and intelligence to participate in the so-called
friendly societies, have an expectation of life of 40.6
years after their thirtieth year. (_Neison_, loc. cit.) On
the whole, it seems to be in harmony with the democratic
leveling tendencies of our own age, that the better care of
children and of the sick has lengthened short lives, and
that the unrest of the times has shortened the long lives,
although the level of the general average continually rises,
notwithstanding. Thus, in Geneva, the proportion of those
who outlived their thirtieth year was: in the 16th century,
after 1549, 29.87; in the 17th century, 37.29; in the 18th
century, 49.39; in the 19th century, until 1833, 58.85 per
cent. of the number of births. On the other hand, the
expectation of life of those who had attained their 80th
year, was in these four centuries respectively 6.22, 5.87,
4.40 and 3.84 years. (_Mallet_, l. c., and Statist. Journal,
1851, 316 ff.) In keeping with this is, that according to
_Guy's_ researches, the average duration of life of the
English peerage and baronetage was, in 1500-1550, 71.27
years; 1550-1600, 68.25 years; 1600-1650, 63.95 years;
1650-1700, 62.40 years; 1700-1745, 64.13 years. (Statist.
Journal, 1845, 74.) However, we may most directly infer a
favorable condition of things from the diminished mortality
of children, for the reason that this, far more directly
than the mortality of adults, is conditioned by the quality
of food. The younger a child is, the more exclusively is its
life-force the product of these two factors: the physical
constitution of its parents and the care bestowed upon it.
Compare _F. J. Neumann_, Die Gestaltung der mittleren
Lebensdauer in Preussen, 1865, 26 ff. In Prussia, in
1751-60, only 312 in 1,000 outlived their tenth year; in
1861-70, 633 in 1,000. Yet, since 1856, the mortality of
children has again begun to increase. (_Knapp_,
Mittheilungen des Statist. Bureaus, VIII, p. 8.)]

[Footnote 246-7: _Duvillard_, Analyse ou Tableau de
l'Influence da la petite Vérole, 1806, is of opinion that
before vaccination only 4 per cent. of those over 30 years
of age were spared by the small-pox; that two-thirds of all
new-born children were attacked by the disease sooner or
later, and that from one-eighth to one-seventh of those
attacked died; and of small children even one-third. Hence,
in many countries, the average duration of life was
increased 3-1/2 years by reason of vaccination. In London,
between 1770 and 1779, of 1,000 deaths, 102 were caused by
the small-pox; in from 1830 to 1836, only 25 in 1,000.
(_Porter_, Progress of the Nation, I, 1, 39.) In Berlin,
between 1792 and 1801, 4,999 persons died of the small-pox;
between 1812 and 1822, only 555. (_Casper._) That this is
really a consequence of vaccination is proved by the facts
of the Chemnitz small-pox epidemic of 1870-71, during which,
in four of the streets principally visited by it, 9 per
cent. were taken ill. Of 4,375 persons who had been
vaccinated, 2.12 per cent. were attacked; of 644 who were
not vaccinated, 54.38 per cent. Of those attacked, 2.1 per
cent. of the former and 11.3 per cent. of the latter died.
(Leipzig Tageblatt, 5 Mai, 1871.)]

[Footnote 246-8: Among the earliest institutions of medical
police are the following: the Swedish Collegium medicum
under Charles XI; the Prussian, 1724; the Danish, 1740; the
quarantine law of Louis XIV., of 1683; the Parisian bureau
of nurses, 1715; lying-in establishments since 1728; French
institutions for the saving of drowned persons, 1740;
English institutions for the saving of persons in cases of
apparent death, 1744; bathing largely promoted by government
since the eighteenth century; prohibition by Maria Theresa
of burial in churches and of locating cemeteries too near
dwelling houses, in 1778. Even _Thomasius_, De Jure
Principum circa Sepultur., § 8, had advised this; and, in
Italy, _Fr. Patricius_, De Inst. Republ. V, 10. On ancient
medical police, see _Pyls_ Repertorium für öffentliche und
gerichtliche Arzneiwissenschaft, II 167, ff. III, 1 ff.]

[Footnote 246-9: In France, the number of deaths in the
cheap years, 1816 and 1819, amounted to an average of
755,877; of the dear years, 1817 and 1818, to an average of
750,065. (Ann. d'Economie politique, 1847, 333.) Thus, the
same scarcity in Pomerania increased its otherwise smaller
mortality relatively less than in Posen. (_Hildebrand's_
Jahrbb. 1872, I, 292.) It is a good sign that in Altenburg,
between 1835 and 1864, the variation in the price of corn
had no influence on its mortality, although the number of
marriages and of births was conditioned by it. (_v. Scheel_
in _Hildebrand's_ Jahrbb., 1866, I, 161 ff.)]

[Footnote 246-10: _Sir W. Petty_, Several Essays, 31 seq.
Great regularity of epidemics in the tropical world:
_Humboldt_, N. Espagne, II, 5. The great plague in the
middle of the 14th century is said to have destroyed 2/3 of
the population of Norway, of Upland, 5/6; in the mountain
districts of Wermeland only 1 boy and 2 girls were left.
(_Geijer_, Schwed. Gesch., I, 186.) According to _Sismondi_,
Gesch. der Italien. Republiken, VI, 27, 3/5 of the whole
population of Europe died at that time. How the cholera
would have raged among our forefathers in the middle ages!
Certainly, as it does now in the East Indies; since, when of
those really attacked by the disease among ourselves so many
die, we cannot attribute our small number of deaths from
cholera to the smaller intensity of the disease or to the
greater skill of our doctors, but chiefly to the better
nourishment of our people, to their better dwellings and
greater cleanliness. Compare _Heberden_, On the Increase and
Decrease of Disease, 1801.]

[Footnote 246-11: _Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 363, seq.
Whether, on this account, we can infer the increased health
of the people, is very much doubted by the aged _laudatores
temporis acti_. They would have us believe that it is
possible that the prolongation of the average of human life
is to be explained by taking into account the case of
numerous valetudinarians who formerly died early, but who
are _now_ preserved to drag out a miserable existence. The
relative number of those who have died of old age did not
noticeably increase between 1816 and 1860 either in Berlin
or in the Prussian state. (_Engel_, Zeitschr., 1862, 222.)
Compare, per contra, _Marx_, Ueber die Abnahme der
Krankheiten durch die Zunahme der Civilization: transactions
of the Göttinger Gesellschaft der Wissenschaften,
1842--44,43, ff. The extreme limit of the decrease of
mortality, where there are no other causes of death but
inevitable weakness of childhood and age, _J. G. Hoffmann_
thinks would be one death per annum for every 52-53 living,
and _Wappäus_, one in 57-58. (Allg. Bevölkerungstatistik, I,
231, 340); (_Schäffle_, System, I, 571); according to
Capeland observations, one for every fifty.]

[Footnote 246-12: This much, however, is clear, that the
life insurance companies of the present day cannot rely on
the calculations made in earlier stages of civilization; on
_Süssmilch's_, for instance; and just as little on those of
the old Romans in L. Digest. ad Leg. Falcidiam. Compare
_Schmelzer_, De Probabilitate Vitae ejusque Usu forensi,
1788.]