Chapter VI: The Second Empire (3)

The Prince de La Tour d'Auvergne, the French Ambassador in London, who was much astonished at the number of persons who had signed the Interpellation Demand, told Lord Clarendon that the French Government had brought it entirely on themselves by the scandals perpetrated at the elections. Both he and Lord Clarendon were convinced that Rouher was destined to be the Imperial scapegoat. In this they were correct. Rouher resigned; and La Tour d'Auvergne himself changed places with La Valette.

* * * * *

_Lord Clarendon to Lord Lyons._

Foreign Office, July 14, 1869.

When France enters upon a new road it is difficult to guess where it
will lead her to, and revolution may be looming in the distance, but
I think and hope it may be staved off for a time. The Senate will
probably put on as many checks as it dares, and the Emperor will
have a good many dodges for defeating his own programme, but he has
proceeded so unskilfully that he must have shaken the confidence of
those whose support he ought to reckon upon.

He should at once, after the unmistakeable verdict of the country
against personal government, have made up his mind how far he would
go with, or resist public opinion, and not have left his supporters
without that _mot d'ordre_ that Frenchmen cannot dispense with; but
his silence compelled them to speak, and no one will now persuade
the people that he has not yielded to the threatened interpellation.

If they are once thoroughly impressed with the notion that he is
squeezable they will continue to squeeze him, and the language held
even by his immediate entourage is ominous. The middle-class fear of
violent charges, and, above all, of the Reds, may come to his aid,
but he must be sadly in want of sound advice. Rouher's retirement,
even though it be temporary, is, I conclude, indispensable, but I
hope the Imperial confidence will not be given to Drouyn, who
besides being the most untrustworthy of men, is the most dangerous
of councillors. The point which concerns us most is the successor to
La Valette, whose resignation Prince La Tour bears with perfect
equanimity.

The ministerial changes seemed to produce no beneficial effects as far as the Emperor's position was concerned, and the letters from the Ambassador became increasingly pessimistic.

* * * * *

_Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon._

Paris, July 27, 1869.

I grieve to say that the Emperor seems to lose ground. His own
partisans seem more and more to doubt his having energy and decision
enough to hold himself and them. What is serious is that this doubt
is strong among the generals. They would stick to him if they felt
sure of him, because a reduction of the army is one of the leading
doctrines of his opponents. Prince Napoleon has found an occasion
for having a letter published repudiating all responsibility for the
conduct of the Government of late years. I have been told very
confidentially that the Empress complained bitterly to the Grand
Duchess Mary of Russia of the inconstancy and ingratitude of the
French people, and said that if the people were tired of her and the
Emperor, they were quite ready to leave the country and save their
son from the dangerous and thankless task of trying to content
France. No one seems to apprehend any immediate danger. The general
impression is that if the Senatus Consultum is a fair execution of
the promises in the message, things will go on quietly enough until
the meeting of the Chamber, which may be safely put off till
December. The most hopeful sign to my mind is the reasonable and
Constitutional way in which the French seem to be getting accustomed
to work for Reforms. If the Emperor sees pretty clearly what to
yield and what to keep, and will express his intentions in time and
stick to them, all may go well yet. But can decision and firmness be
inspired, if they are not in the natural character, or the
reputation for them, if once lost, be recovered?

In spite of the evident deterioration in Napoleon's position and of the growing distrust in him which was now universally felt, unfavourable rumours as to the state of his health caused something resembling a panic. The French funds, which were higher than they had ever been before, fell suddenly in August. They had risen because the Constitutional concessions were believed to make it certain that the Emperor would not make war: they fell because alarming reports were spread about his ill-health. As a matter of fact, he was suffering from rheumatism, and there was no real danger, but there is always a difficulty in ascertaining the truth about illustrious invalids. Much inconvenience and delay, however, were caused by his indisposition, for it seems to have been his habit to retire to bed at any hour of the day, if he felt unwell, and there was no certainty of seeing him, even when he made an appointment. As his plans depended upon his health, and as there was further a certain amount of complication caused by the projected visit of the Empress to the East, nobody quite knew what would happen, and the _joueurs à la baisse_ profited by the situation to bring off a big _coup_ on the Bourse.

* * * * *

_Lord Clarendon to Lord Lyons._

Weisbaden, Aug. 31, 1869.

I hope the report given to you of the Emperor's health is correct.
The banker has told me to-day that he had not remembered for years
such a panic at Frankfort as was produced by the news that he was
dangerously ill. If his illness is not serious and he soon gets well
again, the fright will rather do good as making people awake to the
enormous importance of his life. Even, however, if he lives, your
able despatch describing the state and the prospect of affairs in
France gives cause sufficient for anxiety, and I have an instinct
that they will drift into a republic before another year is over.

Had Lord Clarendon lived a few months longer he would have been able to congratulate himself upon one of the most accurate political prophecies on record, for the Republic was actually proclaimed in Paris on September 4, 1870. It should be added that his voluminous letters show a thorough knowledge of and profound insight into French politics.

The political situation in France at the end of August, 1869, was, on the whole, apparently somewhat more reassuring than had been the case earlier in the year. The Emperor's message announcing a great Constitutional reform had been read in the Corps Législatif in July, and was followed by a general amnesty for all political and press offences. The change of Ministry was well received, because it involved the retirement of M. Rouher, the ablest supporter of the old system of government, although it was known that many eminent deputies were unwilling to take office until the Constitutional change had come into effect. The general impression produced upon the public was favourable, and although many Liberals were careful to declare that they accepted the proffered changes simply as an instalment, only the ultra-Republicans and irreconcilables affected to repudiate them and treat them with contempt. Even the latter, however, were obliged to express approval of the amnesty. Meanwhile the country had remained calm, and so far, the stream of reform appeared to be flowing swiftly and with unruffled surface. Close observers, however, were under no illusion as to the critical situation which was concealed behind these favourable appearances.

The preservation of the Monarchy and of order in France depended as much upon the Emperor as it had done during the early years of his reign, and he was far from being as strong as then. He had been at the head of the Government for more than eighteen years, and the temperament of the French seemed to preclude the idea that they could tolerate any rule for a lengthy period. A young generation had sprung up free from the dread of the bloodshed and disorder which accompanied the revolution of 1848, and eager for change and excitement. The Emperor's foreign policy had not of late years succeeded in gratifying the national pride, nor had his recent concessions done as much as might have been expected to recover his reputation. The ultra-Imperialists believed that if he had shown resolution and decision immediately after the General Election, no reforms would have been necessary; they thought that the reforms became inevitable simply because he vacillated and gave his majority no assurance of support. The Liberals had not much belief in his good faith, and the friends of the Empire entertained a well-grounded fear that the new powers granted to the people would be used for the purpose of overthrowing the dynasty and establishing a republic. On the one hand, there was an impression that the Emperor had no longer sufficient firmness to resist these subversive attempts; on the other, the Liberals found it difficult to believe that a sovereign who had for many years exercised so directly, in his own person, absolute power, could ever be brought voluntarily to abandon it. Thus there was apprehension on both sides, and while some feared that the Emperor would be led from concession to concession until he had no power left, others feared that, finding it impossible to reconcile himself to his new position, he would have recourse to some violent expedient, such as war or a _coup d'état_, in order to extricate himself from his difficulties.

It was generally taken for granted that the choice lay between the Bonaparte dynasty and a republic of an extreme character. The Emperor still retained some personal popularity, but he no longer inspired the fear and the admiration which had hitherto prevented revolutionary attempts. His best chance seemed to lie in foreign Governments treating international questions in such a way as to enhance as far as possible his reputation, and it was certainly not to the interest of England that he should be displaced, for his own commercial policy was decidedly liberal, and it was highly doubtful whether the Corps Législatif would be equally so, when it came to dealing with Tariffs and Commercial Treaties.

When Lord Lyons returned from his leave in November, he found the Emperor in good spirits, full of amiable sentiments with regard to England, and very cheerful about the political prospects in France. He did not appear to know much about the Porte and Khedive question, which had for some time been giving rise to considerable trouble, but responded at once to the Ambassador's appeal to his own _amour propre_ in favour of the Commercial Treaty, which seemed to be in jeopardy. The Empress had gone to the East, and he was consoling himself for her absence by giving small dances at the Tuileries for some American young ladies.

* * * * *

_Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon._

Paris, Dec. 3, 1869.

I am more than ever impatient to settle this Khedive affair because
I am afraid that I see symptoms of the French Press taking up his
cause against his lawful master. La Tour d'Auvergne's tenure of
office is very precarious, and if he goes before it is settled, his
successor is as likely as not to take the popular side, which in
France is undoubtedly that of the contumacious vassal. La Tour
d'Auvergne is himself uneasy, and it is apparent that it is only the
desire to act with us which keeps the Emperor from taking the
Khedive's side decidedly. If the Porte plays many more of these
pranks, it will bring about the independence of Egypt, or a quarrel
between England and France on the subject.

It is in vain to draw any conclusions from the proceedings of the
Deputies, or the innumerable commentaries made upon them. The
Ministers profess to be delighted with the elections of President
and Vice-Presidents, but then I cannot forget that they were
enchanted for the first few days with the results of the General
Election which produced the present Chamber. My own hope is that out
of the chaos a working Liberal-Conservative majority will be
developed; but who is to be the Minister? Emile Ollivier seems to be
losing, not gaining ground in the Chamber. If the Emperor goes
straight and throws himself a little more on the classes, who,
having something to lose, are naturally conservative, he may do well
yet. There is certainly a return of goodwill towards him. The fear
is that he may hope to strengthen himself by coquetting with his pet
ouvriers, who have so little gratitude for the really important
services he has rendered them. If reproached, they answer, he has
done something for us, but what have we not done for him? What I
mean by coquetting with them, is trying to gain by their support,
power, and popularity at the expense of the Chamber.

I can't pretend to say whether the new majority will hold together
when the question of distributing the places arises; whether they
will find it possible to get on with the Emperor, or (which most
concerns us) whether they can and will maintain the Commercial
Treaty. I am afraid we shall never again, either in political or
commercial affairs, have as good times as we had under the personal
power of the Emperor--by _we_ of course I mean the _English_.

With this sentiment Lord Clarendon fully concurred: the Emperor, he said, was parting with power so reluctantly that he would create distrust, but 'I quite agree with you that we shall never have such good times again under a Parliamentary instead of a personal _régime_.'

A few days after this letter was written, La Tour d'Auvergne and his colleagues were already anxious to resign, although the Emperor wished to retain them. It was supposed that Drouyn de Lhuys would be one of their successors: 'Angels and Ministers of grace, defend us!' was the comment of Lord Lyons upon this rumour, which Lord Clarendon received with equal apprehension. Another political event at this juncture was an announcement by the Empress that she intended to keep aloof from politics in the future, and to devote herself to works of charity--an announcement which did not carry universal conviction at the time.

The Cabinet, which was in so shaky a condition, contained some nominal free traders, and it was feared, not without cause, that the new Government might denounce the existing Commercial Treaty, although La Tour d'Auvergne expressed confidence that such would not be the case. 'I have my misgivings,' wrote the Ambassador, sadly, 'for I am afraid the country is Protectionist, and I think the Free Trade zeal in the south will cool, as they become aware that we shall not retaliate.'

* * * * *

_Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon._

Paris, Dec. 21, 1869.

Nothing but absolute force will turn French Ministers and their
wives from their sumptuous official palaces. La Tour d'Auvergne,
whom I should indeed like to keep, is really anxious to go. I don't
feel sure that any of the others are. I suppose the Emperor must
change the Ministry as soon as the verification of powers is over,
but he has not made up his mind yet, and his hesitation is doing him
harm in all ways. There is, I believe, a Conservative reaction, or
rather a revival of the fear of the red spectre in the country. The
Emperor may turn this to good account, if he will govern
constitutionally through a Parliamentary Ministry, but it will not
sustain him in a return to personal government.

I don't think things look well for the Commercial Treaty, and the
notion of some Free Traders that it should be denounced on account
of its origin, and with a view to making a greater advance towards
real free trade, will probably give the _coup de grâce_ to it.
The difficulty of passing new free trade measures through the Chamber
would, I should think, be infinitely greater than that of
maintaining the present Treaty.

The formation of the new Government was not actually completed before the end of the year, although the Emperor in true Constitutional fashion wrote a letter to M. Emile Ollivier in his own hand, asking him to form a Cabinet. There was a feeling that his Ministry would not be long lived, and moderate men shrank from joining it, thus playing into the hands of the revolutionary parties. Amongst those who thought that the new Government would be short-lived was Lord Clarendon--

'Ollivier's task,' he wrote, 'requires tact, experience, firmness,
knowledge of men, and a few other qualities in which he seems
singularly deficient, and I cannot think his Ministry will last. La
Valette thinks that the object of the implacables is to discredit
the Chamber collectively and individually, so as to make its
dissolution appear a necessity; then to pass a new electoral law;
then to have a General Election with which the Government would be
prohibited from interfering; then to have a Chamber of Rocheforts
and Raspails, which would be more than the _commencement de la fin_.

'This is rather a gloomy view, expressed confidentially, of course,
and we must hope that the Emperor will be able to defeat intrigues
of the existence and gravity of which he must be well aware.'

As an instance of the general uncertainty prevailing, it may be mentioned that M. de La Valette, until the contents of the Emperor's letter to Emile Ollivier became known, was convinced that Imperial indecision would take the form of resumption of absolute power.

The new ministry was finally completed in the early days of January, 1870, and proved to be considerably stronger than had been believed possible. Some of the new Ministers had curious antecedents with regard to the Emperor. Ollivier himself had previously been an opponent of the Empire, and his father had been sentenced to be deported to Cayenne, while Count Daru, the new Foreign Minister, had actually voted for the Emperor's impeachment. It was creditable, therefore, that personal matters did not exclude men from office. What chiefly concerned England was the line which the new Government was likely to take with regard to the Commercial Treaty which was about to expire. According to the Emperor, there was nothing to fear, and he assured the Ambassador that he had come to an understanding with Ollivier on the subject, but it was ominous that several members of the Cabinet were ardent Protectionists, amongst them being the Minister of Public Works. In conversation the Emperor spoke cheerfully about the political situation, quite in the tone of a Constitutional Monarch. The Empress, on her side, declared that she had no _caractère politique_ in the State, and enlarged on the enormity of the attacks in the press upon a person so entirely without political position, attacks which were certainly odious, and generally directed to matters unconnected with politics. As for the Ministers, they all praised the Emperor, and declared that their relations with him were perfectly Constitutional and satisfactory; everything seemed going smoothly until the death of the journalist Victor Noir at the hands of Prince Pierre Bonaparte once more threw politics into confusion. After a certain amount of rioting, however, and much trouble caused by Rochefort, things resumed their usual condition for the time being.

* * * * *

_Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon._

Paris, Jan. 18, 1870.

I am one of the hopeful, and I see or fancy I see signs of the
success of the present Ministry in their attempt to found
Parliamentary Government. But people are very uneasy, and the
tactics of the Revolutionists are to keep up an agitation enough to
paralyze trade, and make the peaceably-disposed think that the
present Government is not strong enough to be worth having. These
manoeuvres might lead to a resumption of personal power, which
would be almost as dangerous as a republican revolution.

People seem to find it difficult to believe that the Emperor will
abstain from intriguing against his Ministers. They say it is in his
nature to do so, and remind one that he set up a newspaper against
Rouher. The Ministers themselves, on the other hand, seem to be
thoroughly satisfied with His Majesty. Daru says that he and his
colleagues are confident of success; that they would have two or
three difficult months to pass, but that they expect to have
convinced the Republicans by that time that a revolution is hopeless.
He spoke with great satisfaction of the complete adhesion of the
middle class at Paris to the Ministry, and of the offers they make
of their services in case of need.

Claremont saw the Emperor this afternoon. He thought His Majesty
looking fat and heavy. He found an opportunity of making a remark to
him on the necessity of the Ministry being supported by the Chamber,
which seems to have been taken in good part.

I hear on good authority that the Empress professes to find much
greater good than she expected in the Parliamentary Government, and
that she says the Pierre Bonaparte affair would have been much more
disastrous under the old system. Several of the new Ministers and
their wives appeared last night at a ball at the Tuileries for the
first time since 1848. The Empress, as well as the Emperor, was
particularly gracious to them.

It may be mentioned in connection with the Tuileries balls, that the Ambassador used to receive very numerous applications from persons in English society who were desirous of being invited to these entertainments, and it was usually not possible to satisfy their wishes. After the fall of the Empire, this particular species of application practically disappeared, there being apparently no overwhelming anxiety to attend the Republican social functions.

Before the end of January an important debate took place in the Chamber on the Commercial Treaty, M. Thiers appearing as the chief Protectionist champion. Free Traders professed to derive some encouragement from it, as a vote against the denunciation of the Treaty was carried by 211 to 32; but it was obvious that these figures could not be taken as a test vote of the strength of the Free Trade and Protectionist parties, since the votes of the majority were influenced by a variety of considerations.

FOOTNOTES:

[11] The vanity which was responsible for Prince Gortschakoff's love
of conferences is frequently referred to in Busch's 'Bismarck.'

[12] Subsequently Lord Ampthill.

[13] Prussian Ambassador in London.

[14] Now Wilhelmshafen.